2025 NFL season: Rating all eight divisions in NFC, AFC

The dream, within the 14-team NFL playoff period, is one division getting all 4 groups into the postseason. It hasn’t occurred but, however we have been shut. The AFC West and the NFC North every put three within the playoffs final season. The AFC North did the identical the yr earlier than, when all 4 of its groups had profitable data however the 9-8 Bengals missed the postseason. In 2022, the NFC East, when you can consider it, got here the closest, when Washington went 8-8-1 and missed the playoffs by half a recreation.

Sometime, this can occur. And when it does, there might be no debate about which of the league’s eight divisions is the perfect. Till then, once we do our annual rating of the divisions, now we have a debate.

On this train, we have a tendency to spotlight the way in which ESPN’s Soccer Energy Index ranks the divisions, however we do not simply lean all the way in which into that. What could be the enjoyable of that? Anybody can simply lookup the FPI and type it from highest to lowest.

So, on condition that the purpose is for one division to go 4-for-4, that is the way in which we have determined to do our division rankings for 2025: Rank them so as of most to least more likely to put all 4 groups within the playoffs. That is the place it drifts into the realm of opinion, which implies you get to yell at me on-line that I am flawed. So get pleasure from that.

Bounce to a division …
AFC: East | West | North | South
NFC: East | West | North | South

1. NFC North

Mixed FPI score: 7.8 total (first)

1. Detroit Lions: 5.7 (second in NFL)

2. Inexperienced Bay Packers: 4.6 (third)

3. Minnesota Vikings: minus-1.1 (nineteenth)

4. Chicago Bears: minus-1.4 (twentieth)

By means of 5 weeks, that is the one division through which no workforce has a dropping file. The highest three groups have optimistic level differentials and all made the 2024 postseason, with Detroit and Minnesota posting two of the three finest data in your complete league.

The Bears, the one NFC North workforce to overlook the postseason in 2024, look very a lot improved below new coach Ben Johnson. And if Caleb Williams is absolutely taking the following step as a quarterback, they could possibly be a shock workforce within the second half.

FPI is clearly involved concerning the Vikings’ quarterback scenario, as they’re twenty fifth in offense however fourth in protection. Kevin O’Connell’s historical past as Minnesota’s coach tells us we should not be involved. Plus, FPI charges the Vikings’ remaining schedule because the fourth best within the league.

This division has two of the highest three groups by total FPI, plus the Bears and Vikings have purpose to consider they will enhance the remainder of the way in which. Of all eight divisions, this one feels most definitely to place all of its groups into the postseason.

2. NFC West

Mixed FPI score: 5.1 total (third)

1. Los Angeles Rams: 3.1 (seventh in NFL)

2. San Francisco 49ers: 2.3 (tenth)

3. Seattle Seahawks: 1.4 (thirteenth)

4. Arizona Cardinals: minus-1.7 (twenty second)

There is no such factor as a single loss dangerous sufficient to contemplate folding a whole franchise, but when there have been, the Cardinals’ loss to Tennessee would most likely be it. They’d have been up 28-6 within the fourth quarter if working again Emari Demercado hadn’t inexplicably dropped the ball on the 1-yard line after working 71 yards. They had been nonetheless up by 9 with lower than 5 minutes left and intercepted a cross within the crimson zone solely to see the Titans rating a landing on that very same play.

The variety of issues that needed to go extremely flawed to make the Cardinals 2-3 as an alternative of 3-2 is mind-boggling. But, 2-3 they’re, having misplaced three straight video games by a mixed 5 factors after an encouraging 2-0 begin. Are the Cardinals the perfect last-place workforce within the league proper now? They aren’t horrible, however there are some key flaws stopping them from wanting like true contenders in a division the place all 4 groups ought to be.

The 49ers, decimated by accidents, are nonetheless 4-1 after final Thursday night time’s thrilling victory over the Rams. Los Angeles might be a blocked discipline purpose and a Kyren Williams fumble away from being 5-0. The Seahawks regarded pretty much as good as any of the 4 earlier than dropping a shootout towards the Buccaneers on Sunday, with half their protection out with accidents.

FPI ranks Arizona’s remaining schedule the best within the league, Seattle’s the ninth best and San Francisco’s the Eleventh best. If the Cardinals can reduce out the ridiculous errors, that is nonetheless a division the place the groups may end in any order, and seeing all of them within the postseason would not be an enormous shock.

3. AFC West

Mixed FPI score: 6.7 total (second)

1. Kansas Metropolis Chiefs: 6.1 (first in NFL)

2. Denver Broncos: 2.9 (eighth)

3. Los Angeles Chargers: 1.6 (twelfth)

4. Las Vegas Raiders: minus-3.9 (twenty sixth)

We slid the AFC West right here as a result of the Raiders really feel quite a bit much less more likely to flip their season round than the Cardinals. And as soon as once more, the aim of this train is to rank these divisions so as of which is most definitely to place all 4 groups within the playoffs. The Raiders, who’ve the Twenty seventh-ranked offense by FPI, do not appear to have numerous avenues for enchancment in that space. Their tight ends are all damage; their offensive line in disarray; and quarterback Geno Smith is popping the ball over at a ridiculous price (0.7 TD-INT ratio, tied for second worst).

FPI is predictive, so it does know concerning the Chargers’ accidents and dropped them into third place. There’s quite a bit to love about quarterback Justin Herbert and the Chargers in 12 months 2 of the Jim Harbaugh program, however with out their offensive tackles and their prime two working backs, it is going to be robust for them to hold with Denver and Kansas Metropolis. The Broncos have the third-ranked protection by FPI, and the Chiefs, consider it or not, have the top-ranked offense to go along with the seventh-ranked protection, which explains their standing on the total prime of the FPI ranks despite their 2-3 file.

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Wealthy Eisen wonders if Joe Flacco will immediately begin for the Bengals

Wealthy Eisen discusses when Joe Flacco might be prepared to start out at quarterback for the Bengals.

Worrying concerning the Chiefs’ probabilities to make the playoffs appears like wasted power within the yr 2025, so we cannot do it. However they’re 2-3, which is the worst file of any FPI division chief. I feel it is truthful to have some questions concerning the consistency and sustainability of Denver’s offense (ranked thirteenth by FPI), in addition to the Chargers’ well being scenario. So with all of that in thoughts, it feels as if the AFC West belongs simply behind the NFC West in these rankings, no matter the truth that FPI sees it in another way.

4. NFC East

Mixed FPI score: 2.1 total (fourth)

1. Philadelphia Eagles: 4.3 (fourth in NFL)

2. Washington Commanders: 3.5 (sixth)

3. Dallas Cowboys: 1.3 (fifteenth)

4. New York Giants: minus-7.0 (thirtieth)

There’s quite a bit happening right here. The Eagles are the defending Tremendous Bowl champions and have FPI’s No. 1 protection by a good margin over second-place Houston. However additionally they have the Eleventh-best offense (which feels beneficiant, actually) and the hardest remaining schedule, and they’re the defending champions in a division that hasn’t had a repeat winner in 21 years. Individuals snicker after I carry that up, however the truth is one thing actually all the time occurs, simply because it did to the Eagles two years in the past when that streak was on the verge of ending.

The Commanders, led by sensational second-year QB Jayden Daniels, have the No. 5 offense, the No. 18 protection and the eighth-easiest remaining schedule. The Cowboys, who rank fourth in FPI offensively however Thirty first in FPI defensively, have the precise type of Jekyll and Hyde look you’d anticipate from a workforce with that description. And the Giants, who’ve constantly been one of many league’s worst groups for greater than a decade, are final in FPI by offense and twenty third in FPI by protection. They’ve already turned the operation over to rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart, with the fifth-hardest remaining schedule and no Malik Nabers (the huge receiver has a torn ACL).

Philly and Washington every carry as a lot upside as any workforce within the league, and Dallas could possibly be harmful if it will get the protection collectively. However the Giants drag this division out of rivalry for the highest spot, as they really feel very, very far-off from being a playoff workforce.

5. AFC North

Mixed FPI score: minus-12.2 total (eighth)

1. Pittsburgh Steelers: 0.2 (sixteenth in NFL)

2. Baltimore Ravens: minus-1.6 (twenty first)

3. Cleveland Browns: minus-3.7 (twenty fifth)

4. Cincinnati Bengals: minus-7.1 (Thirty first)

So right here is the place FPI and I diverge sharply. FPI has this rated because the worst division within the league, and I get it. The Steelers have the worst FPI score of any first-place workforce exterior of the Jaguars, who’re tied for first within the AFC South, however the Mike Tomlin Steelers all the time appear to outperform expectations. Whereas I anticipate Pittsburgh to come back all the way down to Earth a bit, it is silly to jot down off the workforce’s probabilities to make the playoffs.

The Ravens are 1-4, however they’ve the perfect FPI of any workforce that has but to win its second recreation. Baltimore is injury-ravaged, however we do not anticipate quarterback Lamar Jackson, security Kyle Hamilton and the majority of its sidelined stars to be out long run. The Ravens have an opportunity to get well, they usually have the pedigree for us to consider they may. The Browns are twenty ninth offensively in FPI, however they’re an encouraging eighth on protection and have given some good groups suits (together with beating the Packers).

After which now we have the Bengals, who rank twenty sixth in FPI on protection and are forward of solely the Giants in FPI on offense. The Bengals’ scores have cratered, as you may anticipate, within the wake of quarterback Joe Burrow’s turf toe damage. However they’re 2-3, which places them in place to get well in the event that they exceed some expectations. The Hail Mary commerce for Joe Flacco earlier this week indicators a workforce that does not need to hand over on its season after three straight losses with Jake Browning below middle. Cincinnati nonetheless has numerous nice gamers in key spots, and if Flacco (or another person) can simply stabilize the QB place earlier than Burrow probably returns close to the top of the season, it may dangle round .500 and stay within the playoff race.

The general caliber of the three divisions behind the AFC North on this record may be higher. But when we’re speaking a few division that would, if numerous issues break proper, put all of its groups within the playoffs, even the worst groups right here have sufficient going for them that there is hope for a turnaround.

6. AFC South

Mixed FPI score: minus-3.6 (fifth)

1. Indianapolis Colts: 2.8 (ninth in NFL)

2. Houston Texans: 1.8 (Eleventh)

3. Jacksonville Jaguars: 0.0 (seventeenth)

4. Tennessee Titans: minus-8.2 (thirty second)

To view this division as top-of-the-line within the league, it’s a must to persuade your self that what you are seeing in key spots shouldn’t be a mirage. Are the Colts actually one of many 10 finest groups within the NFL, or is the Daniel Jones ship destined to run aground because it has so many instances previously? Are the Texans rebounding after beginning 0-3, or is their No. 21 FPI offense dangerous sufficient to sink their second-ranked protection?

What concerning the Jaguars’ sizzling begin? They’re 4-1 because of an opportunistic protection that has already delivered extra takeaways (14) than all of final season (9). Jacksonville’s protection nonetheless will get a middling No. 17 rating from FPI, and its work-in-progress offense ranks sixteenth. FPI nonetheless has the Jags in the midst of the pack, however their present file provides them a robust mathematical probability to get into the postseason.

Tennessee ranks thirtieth on offense and twenty ninth on protection. And when you consider the Titans have an opportunity to get well from 1-4, it is probably since you assume QB Cam Ward is particular and will begin to present a Jayden Daniels-C.J. Stroud sort of affect in his rookie season. There are sufficient sustainability questions right here to maintain the AFC South out of the highest half of this record, and the Titans most likely will not get it collectively in time to essentially threaten for a playoff spot.

7. AFC East

Mixed FPI score: minus-5.2 (sixth)

1. Buffalo Payments: 4.2 (fifth in NFL)

2. New England Patriots: minus-0.2 (18th)

3. Miami Dolphins: minus-3.6 (twenty fourth)

4. New York Jets: minus-5.6 (twenty eighth)

It was shut between these closing two divisions, although having watched the Jets in particular person Sunday, it was fairly arduous to not rank the AFC East useless final. Buffalo and Tampa Bay are prime contenders for the Tremendous Bowl of their respective conferences, however I feel the underside two groups in these divisions are among the many very worst within the league. So, the tiebreaker for me was between the No. 2 groups within the AFC East and the NFC South. And after the Patriots beat the Payments on Sunday night time, I am giving New England the slightest edge over the Falcons.

Buffalo is third in FPI on offense however simply thirteenth on protection. Coach Sean McDermott’s file of turning issues round after a gradual begin on protection warrants giving the workforce the advantage of the doubt, as does Buffalo’s Thirty first-ranked power of schedule. New England’s schedule is almost as straightforward, and the Patriots are 3-2 despite an incomprehensible 5 turnovers towards the Steelers in Week 3. Miami is final in FPI on protection, and the Jets are usually not far forward at No. 30; neither has a top-half offense to assist offset that.

The Jets are the one workforce within the NFL and not using a win and the one one and not using a takeaway on protection. They’ve been completely atrocious in virtually each approach, main the NFL with a minus-8 turnover differential and rating as one of the crucial penalized groups. I will cease writing now earlier than I modify my thoughts and rank this division final only for the sins of its worst workforce.

8. NFC South

Mixed FPI score: minus-11.5 (seventh)

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 1.4 (14th)

2. Atlanta Falcons: minus-2.0 (twenty third)

3. Carolina Panthers: minus-4.6 (Twenty seventh)

4. New Orleans Saints: minus-6.3 (twenty ninth)

Tampa Bay has 4 close-as-can-be victories amid the type of rotten damage luck that’s sinking groups comparable to Baltimore and Cincinnati. The Bucs rank ninth in FPI offense and a surprisingly low twenty second on protection. They’re additionally a four-time defending division champion with purpose to consider their offense will get more healthy shifting ahead.

The Bucs know how you can make the playoffs. The Falcons, nicely, we’ll must see it to consider it. That they had a really encouraging offensive efficiency towards Washington earlier than happening a bye in Week 5, however FPI nonetheless places them in the midst of the pack in offense and protection. We’d like extra info on whether or not quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is absolutely up for this and whether or not coordinator Jeff Ulbrich’s protection can maintain the type of enchancment it has proven.

There are severe questions in Carolina across the offense and quarterback Bryce Younger. The Panthers are twenty second in FPI on offense and Twenty seventh on protection, not providing a ton of short-term hope. Saints quarterback Spencer Rattler is definitely enjoying higher than lots of people notice, however the roster simply would not have a ton of prime expertise. FPI additionally has New Orleans as a bottom-five workforce on offense and protection (in addition to a reasonably distant thirty second in particular groups, which is not serving to something).

This division will get extra respect if Atlanta can set up itself as an actual playoff contender. Till then, it is the Bucs and everybody else. Tampa Bay remains to be hoping that is the yr it could actually get again to being one thing greater than only a perennial winner of one of many worst divisions.