The Chicago Bears host the Inexperienced Bay Packers at Soldier Area on Saturday night time within the second recreation of the NFL’s wild-card weekend. The NFC North rivals cut up the season sequence, and the tape actually tells a narrative. So, let’s take a deeper have a look at each groups, utilizing the earlier video games to put our high bets.
Matt Bowen breaks it down and provides his take, and Liz Loza, Pamela Maldonado, Eric Moody, Ben Solak and Seth Walder share their finest bets, evaluation and DFS performs that can assist you get in on the motion.
Observe: Odds supplied by DraftKings Sportsbook and topic to vary.
When the Packers have the ball
Bowen: I anticipate the Packers to be methodical of their strategy, utilizing the working recreation and taking the throws which are accessible when Jordan Love sees zone protection. Nevertheless, when the Bears play their man schemes, the Packers can money in. Within the Week 14 recreation, Love accomplished 9 of 13 passes for 145 yards and two touchdowns versus man protection.
Edge: Packers.
Greatest wager: Christian Watson can create numbers on out routes and quicks, however we need to see the large throws that get him free on deep over routes and posts. Watson has 80 or extra yards receiving in three of his final 5 video games, with 89 yards (on simply 4 catches) versus Chicago in Week 14. Take Watson over 54.5 yards receiving (-113).
When the Bears have the ball
Bowen: Bears coach Ben Johnson desires to run the ball and ship physique punches within the second half of soccer video games. We have seen it. However that additionally units up quarterback Caleb Williams on play-action throws out of multiple-tight-end units, and this Inexperienced Bay go rush has declined since Micah Parsons’ knee damage.
Edge: Bears.
Greatest wager: Colston Loveland has emerged as a precedence goal for Williams, catching at the least six passes in back-to-back video games. Plus, given the zone-heavy tendencies of the Packers protection, Loveland can function as an beneath outlet and work the seams. I am going Loveland over 4.5 receptions (+105).
Workers picks, finest bets and props
Bears +1.5 (-112)
Maldonado: Chicago controls tempo with the run recreation, forces turnovers on the highest charge within the league and closes video games late. Inexperienced Bay strikes the ball however struggles to complete drives, particularly below stress. The Bears’ fourth-quarter edge makes them the aspect to take.
Caleb Williams 34+ go makes an attempt (+142)
Moody: Williams has averaged 34.5 go makes an attempt per recreation over his final 10 contests and recorded at the least 34 makes an attempt in each conferences towards the Packers earlier this season. With these groups accustomed to each other, this matchup has the potential to show right into a high-scoring recreation, particularly with Inexperienced Bay coping with a number of defensive accidents. The Bears will look to use this.
Williams UNDER 31.5 go makes an attempt (-112)
Solak: The Bears have needed to dig their approach out of two multi-score holes towards Inexperienced Bay this season, and, accordingly, these two video games have demanded 35 and 34 go makes an attempt from Williams. If this recreation, with a ramification of just one.5 stays a better contest that enables Chicago to play their most popular model of offense, Williams will not must drop again almost as a lot. And along with his receiver room returning to full well being, extra completions will turn out to be large good points, resulting in fewer makes an attempt total.
Williams OVER 21.5 dashing yards (-112)
Loza: Williams averages 4.5 carries (QB16) and almost 23 dashing yards per contest (QB8). He ripped off 30 dashing yards when he final confronted a Parsons-less Packers protection in Week 16 (he had solely 15 dashing yards at Inexperienced Bay, with Parsons on the sphere, in Week 14). Inexperienced Bay’s protection has allowed a median of 32 dashing yards per recreation since Parsons was injured in Week 15. Williams ought to discover some scrambling room and flirt with at the least 25 dashing yards Saturday.
Montez Sweat UNDER 0.25 sacks (-140)
Walder: Sweat’s 4.8% go rush win charge ranks fiftieth out of 52 qualifying edge rushers. That is most likely underselling his skill a bit bit as a result of it won’t seize a few of his pocket-pushing skill, however nonetheless, there is a purpose why the Bears have struggled with their go rush all 12 months. But it surely will get worse. Jordan Love has only a 4.3% sack charge this season, seventh-lowest amongst quarterbacks. And whereas I am making this wager both approach, if Zach Tom is lively, this wager turns into much more enticing. Tom, who Sweat figures to align reverse most frequently, ranks sixth in go block win charge amongst tackles. My mannequin costs this below at -233.
Each day fantasy suggestions for DraftKings Captain Showdown
Loza’s suggestions
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy factors): D’Andre Swift ($13,800). The Bears recorded the fifth-most rushes over the common season. Ben Johnson figures to stay to that script versus a banged-up Packers protection. Regardless of Kyle Monangai’s emergence, Swift has remained the Chicago’s RB1, averaging 15.5 touches per recreation and 13 fantasy factors per contest from Weeks 10-18.
Additionally in my lineup: Colston Loveland ($6,400). The rookie has emerged over the again half of the common season, drawing at the least 5 seems in each recreation since Week 12. He additionally leads the staff in pink zone alternatives (13). Chicago’s receiving corps could be difficult to foretell, however Loveland’s sturdy variety of high-value targets make him a strong ceiling decide.
Maldonado’s suggestions
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy factors): Caleb Williams ($15,900) has dashing upside with scramble skill. Even when his throwing accuracy wavers early, quantity and four-quarter aggression create ceiling outcomes. His legs matter greater than effectivity.
Additionally in my lineup: DJ Moore ($8,400) is Williams’ first learn in large spots. When stress hits, targets funnel his approach. Moore’s position spikes late within the recreation, giving him a dependable ground with pictures at scores.
Moody’s suggestions
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy factors): Kyle Monangai ($4,200) is a pleasant worth choice and comes at a decrease price than Swift. Monangai has put collectively a formidable rookie season, and whereas his utilization has been inconsistent, Monangai is an explosive runner. The Packers’ defensive entrance has struggled late within the common season, and Monangai might discover success working behind a Bears offensive line that completed fifth in run-block win charge.
Additionally in my lineup: Luther Burden III ($6,600) closed the common season on a powerful word, averaging 5.4 targets per recreation over his final seven video games. He additionally flashed important upside, highlighted by a 30.8-point efficiency in Week 17 towards the 49ers. Whether or not or not Rome Odunze performs, Burden profiles as a superb DFS worth at this value.’
Solak’s suggestions
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy factors): Josh Jacobs ($14,400). Count on possession to return in low on Jacobs, who has been quiet for the final month as he is handled nagging damage. However he is off the damage report this week for the primary time in over a month, and the Packers will look to run the soccer and shorten the sport towards a Bears offense that has struggled to persistently put up factors towards them within the first half. Must be a heavy quantity day for a participant a lot of the area passes on.
Additionally in my lineup: Colston Loveland ($6,400). Regardless of main the Bears in goal share over the again half of the season, Loveland is priced under all three of the Bears’ beginning receivers in showdown. I believe the return of Rome Odunze and emergence of Luther Burden III will result in extra distributed manufacturing among the many wideouts, whereas Loveland’s position as a dependable stick-mover with pink zone utility will go untouched. He’ll be closely owned, however rightfully so.
Walder’s suggestions
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy factors): Jordan Love ($15,600). I believe that is going to be a high-scoring, back-and-forth battle the place the quarterbacks are going to place up large numbers. The explanation? Move safety. Each of those staff rank within the high six in go block win charge, the Bears rank thirty first in go rush win charge and the Packers are even worse than that if we solely have a look at their go dashing snaps with out Micah Parsons on the sphere. Love, and his stats, would be the beneficiary.
Additionally in my lineup: Caleb Williams ($10,600). Sure, this implies we’ll need to go low-cost with the remainder of the lineup. However I need to squeeze each quarterbacks into the identical lineup due to precisely what I wrote above. The offensive strains ought to win the day and prepared the ground to a passing-driven factors bonanza.
