The 2026 NFL draft is an efficient one for edge rushers, with seven gamers projected to go within the first spherical. Our SackSEER projection system — which predicts sack totals throughout a participant’s first 5 professional seasons — agrees with the consensus on a lot of this 12 months’s prime prospects. We additionally establish some sturdy candidates whose explosive traits make them price taking an opportunity on regardless of mediocre collegiate sack manufacturing.
Projecting gamers from faculty to the professionals may be very troublesome, and there is a variety of potentialities. So when you is perhaps shocked that no prospect is projected with greater than six sacks per season, bear in mind that clearly a few of them will find yourself as double-digit sack artists, whereas others will wrestle and disappear from video games for lengthy stretches.
One main change in SackSEER for this 12 months is that we now have eliminated consideration of three-cone drill occasions. It’s the greatest sufferer of declining participation in predraft drills, as solely two edge rusher prospects ran the three-cone on the mix this 12 months. We will not use it to think about gamers if nobody goes to really do it!
What follows is a rating of the highest edge rusher prospects for 2026, in line with our mannequin. We additionally recognized one sturdy sleeper and one doubtlessly overrated candidate.
Leap to:
Underrated | Overrated
Full SackSEER rankings
Methodology: The way it works
SackSEER projection: 26.6 sacks by means of 12 months 5
Scouts Inc. rating: 7
Comparable historic prospects: Khalil Mack, DeMarcus Ware
Bailey led the FBS with 14.5 sacks final season, and he is clearly the SackSEER favourite for 2026. He is the one prospect on this 12 months’s draft who combines wonderful collegiate sack manufacturing with excellent exercises, with a 4.50-second 40-yard sprint, a 35-inch vertical and a 10-foot-9 broad bounce.
SackSEER projection: 23.5 sacks by means of 12 months 5
Scouts Inc. rating: 24
Comparable historic prospects: Preston Smith, Everson Griffen
Faulk is the heaviest edge rusher on this 12 months’s class at 278 kilos. A 35-inch vertical is spectacular for a participant carrying his weight, as was the 4.67-second 40 he ran at his professional day.
Faulk turns 21 in September, so he’s coming to the league younger. He performed all three of his collegiate seasons at Auburn, the place he had 10 profession sacks and began in his sophomore and junior seasons.
SackSEER projection: 23.1 sacks by means of 12 months 5
Scouts Inc. rating: 17
Comparable historic prospects: Robert Quinn, Yetur Gross-Matos
Parker regressed to simply 5 sacks as a junior in 2025 after having 11 as a sophomore in 2024, however that may make him undervalued getting into this 12 months’s draft. There’s a historical past of edge rushers who dominate as sophomores after which take a step again as juniors as soon as opponents give them extra consideration.
To not instantly examine Parker to the perfect defensive participant within the NFL, however Myles Garrett is an instance, as he went from 12.5 sacks as a sophomore to eight.5 as a junior. Jadeveon Clowney went from 13 sacks as a sophomore to solely three as a junior.
SackSEER projection: 23.0 sacks by means of 12 months 5
Scouts Inc. rating: 3
Comparable historic prospects: Micah Parsons, Kamerion Wimbley
Reese is a tough participant for SackSEER to venture as a result of he was by no means a full-time edge rusher in faculty. Lots of people are evaluating him to Parsons in that regard, although, and the SackSEER numbers agree.
Reese had 6.5 sacks final season however solely 0.5 sacks as a sophomore in 2024. He didn’t do the vertical bounce or broad bounce on the mix, however his 4.46-second 40 was the quickest among the many edge rushers.
SackSEER projection: 21.1 sacks by means of 12 months 5
Scouts Inc. rating: 22
Comparable historic prospects: Whitney Mercilus, Aldon Smith
SackSEER projection: 21.0 sacks by means of 12 months 5
Scouts Inc. rating: 16
Comparable historic prospects: Nick Bosa, Greg Rousseau
These teammates come out with virtually similar SackSEER measurements. Mesidor had extra sacks final season (12.5 in contrast with Bain’s 9.5), however the SRAM (sack price as modified) variable takes under consideration that Mesidor was in his sixth season of faculty eligibility whereas Bain was solely in his third. Mesidor will likely be 25 on draft day, whereas Bain does not flip 22 till September.
There was lots of dialogue of Bain’s quick arm size (30⅞ inches), however that is not one thing we incorporate into these projections.
The underrated edge rusher
SackSEER projection: 18.5 sacks by means of 12 months 5
Scouts Inc. rating: 78
Comparable historic prospects: Joseph Ossai, Jamie Collins Sr.
Lawrence did not have nice stats in faculty, with solely seven sacks as a senior in 2025. However SackSEER likes him as a sleeper prospect as a result of he was excellent in his exercises and thus scores very excessive on the explosion index. Lawrence ran a 4.52-second 40 with a 40-inch vertical and a 10-foot-10 broad bounce.
Trey Moore (Texas) and Dani Dennis-Sutton (Penn State) are related prospects to Lawrence, though barely decrease in SackSEER and in draft expectations. Dennis-Sutton was the one edge rusher at this 12 months’s mix with an extended broad bounce (10-foot-11) than Lawrence.
The overrated edge rusher
SackSEER projection: 16.4 sacks by means of 12 months 5
Scouts Inc. rating: 30
Comparable historic prospects: Uchenna Nwosu, Andre Department
Younger comes out because the more than likely to disappoint of the potential first-round prospects. His collegiate sack manufacturing was middling, with solely 6.5 sacks in his senior 12 months and simply 5 mixed sacks within the three seasons earlier than that. His 4.70-second 40 can also be pretty common.
Methodology
SackSEER relies on a statistical evaluation of all edge rushers drafted within the years 1998-2021 and measures the next:
-
The sting rusher’s projected draft place. Particularly, the rankings from ESPN’s Scouts Inc.
-
An “explosion index” that measures the prospect’s scores within the 40-yard sprint, the vertical leap and the broad bounce in predraft exercises.
-
A metric referred to as “SRAM,” which stands for sack price as modified. SRAM measures the prospect’s per-game sack productiveness, however with changes for elements similar to early entry within the NFL draft and place switches throughout faculty.
-
The prospect’s faculty passes defensed per sport.
SackSEER was developed by Nathan Forster.
