The race for the No. 1 decide within the 2026 NFL draft is taking form after 10 weeks of the 2025 season. 5 groups have a minimum of a 5% probability at touchdown the highest decide, in keeping with ESPN’s Soccer Energy Index (FPI) projections. So we referred to as on our NFL reporters and analysts to dimension up every of these bottom-tier franchises after midseason.
Seth Walder used FPI to make sense of every of the 5 groups’ schedules the remainder of the best way. Dan Graziano answered how the No. 1 decide might impression every crew’s present QB room. Our NFL Nation reporters regarded on the largest positional wants that could possibly be addressed within the first spherical in April. Matt Miller spun it ahead and recommended one prospect every entrance workplace might contemplate if it landed that high choice. And at last, Ben Solak rated every crew’s “pleasure issue” on a 1-10 scale (with 10 being probably the most excited) in the event that they picked No. 1 general.
Let’s begin with the Titans, who at present have one of the best odds on the first general decide.
Leap to a crew:
CLE | LV | NO | NYJ | TEN
FPI probability to earn No. 1 decide: 36.6%
FPI probability to earn top-five decide: 87.3%
What lies forward within the schedule? Are they favored in any remaining video games?
It is going to get simpler, although I suppose that may not be a very good factor for Tennessee now. After having performed the toughest schedule within the NFL thus far, the Titans have the 18th-hardest slate remaining, per the FPI. The Titans aren’t favored in any video games, however there are two contests very near a coin flip: on the Browns in Week 14 and versus the Saints in Week 17. Apart from that, the Titans are a minimum of 6-point underdogs in each sport. — Walder
What would touchdown the No. 1 decide imply for quarterback Cam Ward?
Assist! Having the No. 1 decide and never needing a quarterback is a unbelievable place for a crew to be in. The Titans might both use the decide on one of the best non-quarterback within the draft, which might enhance the crew round Ward for the longer term, or they might commerce it for a haul of picks to a QB-needy crew and use the added draft capital to proceed constructing round Ward. — Graziano
What’s their largest want proper now?
Edge rusher. Defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson deserves credit score for the way he has manufactured a cross rush with so few true impression gamers. Nonetheless, Tennessee’s 22 sacks this season rank twenty second within the league. Outdoors of Jeffery Simmons, there isn’t any defensive participant who poses a big risk to opposing offenses. The Titans do not have a single participant on the roster who has logged a double-digit sack season. Including a sport changer to come back off the sting and make huge performs when it issues probably the most would assist the protection immensely. The final edge rusher drafted by Tennessee within the first spherical was Derrick Morgan, who was chosen sixteenth in 2010. — Turron Davenport
Who’s one of the best prospect match proper now for them at No. 1?
Miami defensive finish Rueben Bain Jr. won’t resolve the crew’s points on offense, however he does convey a three-down capability as a real edge defender who can rush the passer and cease the run. Tennessee has to search out somebody who threatens opposing offenses. Bain’s capability to win with highly effective arms and shutting velocity would slot in any scheme that the Titans’ new head coach and defensive coordinator need to run. In a draft that’s gentle on elite offensive talent gamers, Bain is the place worth meets want. — Miller
How would you charge the thrill issue of Tennessee touchdown the highest decide on a scale of 1-10?
A sneaky 6. Whereas the Titans will surely not take a quarterback, I feel the highest of this QB class is robust sufficient that we might see a considerable commerce up for the No. 1 decide, particularly if the Browns or Jets are at No. 2. A commerce as much as the highest decide is leisure within the second, as rumors swirl and hypothetical packages are thought of, and leisure for years to come back, because the commerce is eternally reexamined. — Solak
FPI probability to earn No. 1 decide: 26.9%
FPI probability to earn high 5 decide: 82.6%
What lies forward within the schedule? Are they favored in any remaining video games?
They’re favored by FPI in a single sport (vs. Titans in Week 14) and head to Las Vegas in Week 12, which could possibly be a doable victory. FPI makes the Browns a minimum of a 7-point underdog in all of their different remaining contests, nonetheless. The Browns do play 5 of their closing eight video games at dwelling, so their slate is a shade simpler than it appears simply their opponents.
What would touchdown the No. 1 decide imply for quarterbacks Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders?
Most likely the tip of the street by way of their possibilities to be the Browns’ long-term starter. Until a kind of guys makes it clear over the second half of this season that he might be the franchise QB, the Browns would virtually actually use the No. 1 decide on a QB they imagine could possibly be simply that. Perhaps one in every of them would stick round as a backup? Or begin whereas the rookie will get in control? However that will be about it. — Graziano
What’s their largest want proper now?
Quarterback. The Browns have already cycled by means of two quarterbacks and seem prone to go to a 3rd in Sanders sooner or later. The infrastructure across the quarterbacks hasn’t been stable, however Cleveland hasn’t gotten sufficient manufacturing on the place to dissuade the franchise from focusing on a passer within the first spherical. Browns QBs have registered a 29.1 Whole QBR this season, which ranks solely above the Titans. — Daniel Oyefusi
Who’s one of the best prospect match proper now for them at No. 1?
Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza has emerged as the highest senior quarterback because of his accuracy, timing and poise within the pocket. He is not a real twin risk, however he has picked up 5 scores on the bottom and retains defenses on their toes together with his mobility. At 6-foot-5 and 225 kilos, he has the body and arm expertise to face within the pocket and ship the ball downfield. His 26-to-5 ratio in touchdowns to interceptions additionally exhibits a quarterback prepared to take possibilities whereas limiting turnovers. Alabama’s Ty Simpson and Oregon’s Dante Moore are choices to control, however each are first-year starters in an period the place NFL scouts prefer to see a minimum of 25 begins from incoming prospects. That leaves Mendoza because the clear-cut choice. — Miller
How would you charge the thrill issue of Cleveland touchdown the highest decide on a scale of 1-10?
Inform me once more why I ought to be enthusiastic about one other Browns decide for a quarterback? Cleveland is an efficient candidate to rapidly leap in relevance with a powerful rookie passer, as that protection is able to shred (and has been for years). However I’ve achieved one too many cycles of “this man is the man!” in Cleveland to be enthused about doing it once more. If I am that jaded, think about how Browns followers really feel. — Solak
FPI probability to earn No. 1 decide: 13.3%
FPI probability to earn high 5 decide: 69.2%
What lies forward within the schedule? Are they favored in any remaining video games?
They don’t seem to be favored by FPI in any video games, however there are a number of the place the Jets might stumble right into a win: versus the Falcons in Week 13, versus the Dolphins in Week 14 and on the Saints in Week 16. The wild card is Week 18 in Buffalo. Usually that will be some of the doubtless losses of the season, however it’s doable the Payments could possibly be locked in to their playoff seeding and relaxation their starters. If that is the case, the Jets might stumble into one other win and harm their draft capital. — Walder
What would touchdown the No. 1 decide imply for quarterback Justin Fields?
I am undecided Fields is lengthy for New York no matter whether or not the Jets take a QB within the draft. But when they find yourself with the No. 1 decide — and assuming Fields’ efficiency would not do an entire 180 within the closing eight weeks of the season — I’ve to imagine they’d use it to draft his alternative. Fields would not stroll away empty-handed, although, as $10 million of his $20 million 2026 wage is absolutely assured. — Graziano
What’s their largest want proper now?
Quarterback, quarterback and quarterback. Did we point out they want a quarterback? Fields is underneath contract for 2026, however he appears like a lame duck. The Jets have 5 first-round picks over the 2026 and 2027 drafts, so they need to have the ability to goal a participant and go get him. Maybe it will likely be a veteran. In the event that they determine to attend till the 2027 draft to deal with the place, the highest wants proper now are broad receiver and defensive sort out. — Wealthy Cimini
Who’s one of the best prospect match proper now for them at No. 1?
Mendoza stays the highest quarterback, and just like the Browns, the Jets will likely be vying for place to safe QB1. Coach Aaron Glenn desires a QB with mobility, which is why the crew went all-in on Fields, and Dante Moore may be a greater scheme match than Mendoza. Moore’s capability to throw on the transfer and his general athletic traits are at a better stage than Mendoza’s. The most important query will likely be his restricted begins in faculty, with 5 at UCLA in 2023 earlier than this season. Mendoza most likely will get the nod primarily based on expertise stage, because the Jets want a quarterback who can play straight away. — Miller
How would you charge the thrill issue of New York touchdown the highest decide on a scale of 1-10?
4. The Jets will most likely do the good however boring factor subsequent offseason: Decide to a veteran quarterback by mid-March. There goes the drama. There’s a non-zero probability, given how long-term the Jets’ rebuild appears to be, that they’re prepared to each take a quarterback with the decide or commerce the decide away for a aggressive supply. That does give this hypothetical a further layer of enjoyable. — Solak
FPI probability to earn No. 1 decide: 9.7%
FPI probability to earn high 5 decide: 63.3%
What lies forward within the schedule? Are they favored in any remaining video games?
The unhealthy (?) information is the Saints have the best remaining schedule within the NFL. That options two video games during which FPI makes them slender favorites — versus the Jets in Week 16 and at Titans in Week 17 — however it would not finish there. Just about each single sport for the Saints outdoors of their Week 14 contest on the Buccaneers could possibly be a possible victory. — Walder
What would touchdown the No. 1 decide imply for quarterbacks Tyler Shough and Spencer Rattler?
I feel lots of that relies on what Shough exhibits them over the remainder of the season. He was the No. 40 decide this 12 months, which is fairly excessive and would not rule out the likelihood that he could possibly be their long-term reply. So if Shough finishes the season robust and convinces the Saints to stay with him, they might use the No. 1 decide to construct round him by making the decide or buying and selling it for extra belongings. And if he struggles, they might actually use it to pick out his alternative and maintain Shough or Rattler round because the backup. — Graziano
What’s their largest want proper now?
Vast receiver. Amid their analysis of Shough, the Saints have wants at each place. Vast receiver is close to the highest of that record, because the Saints simply traded Rashid Shaheed to the Seahawks. Whereas Chris Olave says the Saints have approached him about an extension, getting a high wideout, whether or not or not he’s there past 2026, will likely be important to reviving a struggling offense. — Katherine Terrell
Who’s one of the best prospect match proper now for them at No. 1?
Vast receiver is totally the most important want, however one of the best cross catcher on this class hasn’t risen to No. 1 decide standing. Arizona State’s Jordyn Tyson is a top-10 prospect, however he lacks the elite measurables to buck the development of receivers not being drafted No. 1 general — Keyshawn Johnson was the final No. 1 decide at WR in 1996. With that choice off the desk, the Saints would almost definitely have a look at the protection in the event that they persist with Shough. Ohio State hybrid defender Arvell Reese would spark a protection that also misses Trey Hendrickson. Reese can play each stack linebacker and off the sting as a cross rusher. Some scouts I’ve talked to already contemplate Reese the highest participant within the class, seeing upside just like when Micah Parsons was a prospect. — Miller
How would you charge the thrill issue of New Orleans touchdown the highest decide on a scale of 1-10?
A wholesome 7. Shough performed one of the best sport of his very younger profession Sunday and repeat performances would doubtless safe him the job for 2026. However he was a second-round decide at quarterback, and such picks hardly ever stave off a primary general choice. Relying on how the season runs out, the Saints might commerce the decide away (enjoyable) or maintain the decide whereas seeking to transfer Shough and Rattler (additionally enjoyable). — Solak
FPI probability to earn No. 1 decide: 7.0%
FPI probability to earn high 5 decide: 54.1%
What lies forward within the schedule? Are they favored in any remaining video games?
The Raiders are favored solely versus the Browns in Week 12, however they’ve a few different video games that they might probably win. Particularly, two dwelling matchups in opposition to the Cowboys (subsequent Monday) and Giants (Week 17). One query will likely be if the Chiefs are ready to relaxation their starters in Week 18. If they’re, that would arrange a straightforward matchup within the closing week of the season. — Walder
What would touchdown the No. 1 decide imply for quarterback Geno Smith?
Most likely the tip of his time in Las Vegas. If the Raiders get the No. 1 decide, that nearly actually means Smith will not have turned his season round and the Raiders could possibly be lots of modifications, together with at quarterback. Smith does have $18.5 million in assured wage coming in 2026 it doesn’t matter what, and one other $8 million turns into absolutely assured if he is nonetheless on the roster on the third day of the league 12 months subsequent March. However due to the best way the Raiders deal with bonus construction of their veteran contracts, that $18.5 million is all of the useless cash they’d have to hold on their 2026 wage cap for Smith in the event that they reduce him earlier than the third day of the league 12 months. — Graziano
What’s their largest want proper now?
Defensive finish. The Raiders want a succession plan for Smith. Nevertheless, the Raiders are unable to take one of many high quarterbacks on this class, they should deal with the line of defense. Las Vegas’ cross rush has been amongst its deficiencies in 2025. The Raiders are twenty fifth in sacks (18) and thirtieth in stress charge (27%). Maxx Crosby has been stable this season, however he wants assist. — Ryan McFadden
Who’s one of the best prospect match proper now for them at No. 1?
This is one other crew the place Reese is a dream match. The Raiders have struggled to search out Crosby a very good operating mate in earlier drafts and free company, however Reese’s velocity and energy would match the relentlessness that Crosby performs with. Groups must plan round profitable their division, and it is smart to construct a protection that may assault the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes, the Chargers’ Justin Herbert and the Broncos’ Bo Nix. Sure, quarterback is a transparent and apparent want, however Ryan is correct that the protection needs to be constructed to ensure that the Raiders to win. — Miller
How would you charge the thrill issue of Las Vegas touchdown the highest decide on a scale of 1-10?
5. Given how sharply Smith’s play has tailed off this season, the Raiders should make a future quarterback funding. However given coach Pete Carroll’s historical past of profitable with protection and growing Day 2 quarterbacks (like Smith, in addition to Russell Wilson), I might see the Raiders staying right here and making the hero name on a defensive participant. They’d actually be the toughest crew to determine in the event that they get the highest decide. — Solak
