The race for the No. 1 choose within the 2026 NFL draft is solidifying after 15 weeks of the 2025 season. Solely 5 groups have not less than a 1% probability at touchdown the highest choose, in accordance with ESPN’s Soccer Energy Index (FPI) projections. So we known as on our NFL reporters and analysts to measurement up every of these bottom-tier franchises once more after looking at midseason.
Our NFL Nation reporters checked out what went unsuitable for every group to get them on this place. Seth Walder used FPI to make sense of every groups’ possibilities of their closing three video games. Dan Graziano rated every group’s chance of buying and selling the No. 1 choose on a 1-10 scale. And eventually, Jordan Reid spun it ahead and recommended one prospect every entrance workplace may take into account if it stored the highest choice.
Let’s begin with the Raiders, who at present have the very best odds on the first choose.
Soar to a group:
CLE | LV | NYG | NYJ | TEN
FPI probability to earn No. 1 choose: 37.6%
FPI probability to earn top-five choose: 92.7%
What was the largest drawback this season?
Las Vegas has been an entire mess on offense. Since firing offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, the Raiders have scored solely 31 factors in three video games. They totaled 75 yards in a 31-0 loss to the Eagles this previous Sunday. Quarterback Geno Smith has regressed over the course of the season, and rookie operating again Ashton Jeanty has been underwhelming. The offensive line’s incapability to carry safety or create house hasn’t helped both participant. The Raiders are at present twenty second in go block win price (61.0%) and tied for 18th in run block win price (70.6%). — Ryan McFadden
What lies forward within the schedule? Are they favored in any remaining video games?
They are not favored in any video games however do not make the error of pondering that the Raiders have the No. 1 choose locked up. Their Week 17 recreation is towards the Giants, who’re fourth on this checklist, and Week 18 is towards an already eradicated Chiefs group. Who is aware of what that recreation will appear to be. — Walder
On a scale of 1-10, how possible is it they might commerce the choose?
1. All of those grades will probably be primarily based on whether or not the group likes the highest QB prospect — Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza or whomever else it may develop into — sufficient to justify taking him No. 1. The Raiders desperately want an actual, long-term resolution at quarterback and can be silly to let a possibility to draft one slip previous them. — Graziano
Who’s the very best prospect match proper now for them at No. 1?
Mendoza. Including Smith as a veteran presence backfired. The Raiders desperately want a franchise QB, and this yr’s Heisman Trophy winner may fill that void as the highest choice on this class. His toughness, poise and accuracy are traits that may translate rapidly. The franchise hasn’t chosen a QB in Spherical 1 since 2007, when it took Jamarcus Russell with the highest choose. — Reid
FPI probability to earn No. 1 choose: 20.3%
FPI probability to earn high 5 choose: 89.3%
What was the largest drawback this season?
Offense. For the second straight season, the Browns have one of the crucial anemic offenses within the NFL. Cleveland is tied with Tennessee for the bottom mark in yards per play (4.3) this season. The Browns are final in offensive EPA, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats, and have cycled by three totally different beginning quarterbacks — Joe Flacco, Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders. However the points span past the QB, from an oft-injured and underperforming offensive line to an absence of playmakers on the surface. — Daniel Oyefusi
What lies forward within the schedule? Are they favored in any remaining video games?
They’re most actually not favored in any video games. The Browns face the Payments, Steelers and Bengals, a excessive diploma of issue stretch. FPI favors Cleveland’s opponents by not less than 8.5 factors in every of these matchups, although it stays to be seen what the state of the Bengals is in Week 18. Nonetheless, Browns followers hoping to see their group lose out have a superb probability of that taking place.— Walder
On a scale of 1-10, how possible is it they might commerce the choose?
4. Anybody who tells you they know what the Browns are going to do at QB subsequent season is mendacity. They’ve two rookies (Sanders and Gabriel), Deshaun Watson nonetheless on the roster at a worth of $46 million and two first-round picks in 2026. In the event that they fall in love with Mendoza, I really feel assured they’d take him right here. If they don’t seem to be in love with any QB prospect and be ok with Sanders, Gabriel and/or Watson for yet one more season, then they may commerce it and handle the issue with much more draft capital in 2027. — Graziano
Who’s the very best prospect match proper now for them at No. 1?
Mendoza. I do not suppose Gabriel and Sanders have proven sufficient this season to cease the Browns from persevering with to seek out their long-term reply beneath heart. This season, the Browns are thirtieth in passing yards per recreation (171.9) and final in Whole QBR (24.6). Arguably probably the most constant passer on this class, Mendoza has the potential to carry stability to a franchise that has lacked it since Baker Mayfield was traded in 2022. — Reid
2:18
Stephen A. blames Stefanski for not creating Browns QBs
Stephen A. Smith calls out Browns coach Kevin Stefanski for refusing to develop different quarterbacks whereas the group tries Shedeur Sanders at QB.
FPI probability to earn No. 1 choose: 18.9%
FPI probability to earn top-five choose: 88.9%
What was the largest drawback this season?
Lack of complementary soccer. There have been video games when the Titans’ protection performed nicely however ultimately wore down after being on the sphere an excessive amount of as a result of the offense could not maintain drives. Tennessee is at present twenty eighth in time of possession and second worst in whole yards per recreation (250.5). However the offense has given the protection an opportunity to shut out video games, like in Week 11 (a 16-13 loss to Houston). It did not occur. — Turron Davenport
What lies forward within the schedule? Are they favored in any remaining video games?
They are not favored in any video games by FPI, however there are a few winnable video games. The Titans are getting the Chiefs contemporary off their playoff elimination and with out quarterback Patrick Mahomes (torn ACL). Will Kansas Metropolis pack it in in a meaningless recreation? It would not be that surprising. And although the Saints are taking part in nicely, that is not a sure-fire loss for Tennessee in Week 17. However Week 18 may simply be a loss if the sport is significant for the Jaguars’ playoff hopes. — Walder
On a scale of 1-10, how possible is it they might commerce the choose?
9. I might be shocked if Tennessee took a QB at No. 1 two years in a row. It has by no means occurred. The one cause it isn’t a ten is as a result of a brand new coach may determine he is not offered on rookie quarterback Cam Ward. Although, why take the job if that is the case? This entrance workplace, led by first-year common supervisor Mike Borgonzi, drafted Ward No. 1 final spring and believes in him. So buying and selling the choose for future draft capital would make sense. — Graziano
Who’s the very best prospect match proper now for them at No. 1?
Arvell Reese, Edge/linebacker, Ohio State. In want of expertise on either side of the ball, Reese is a flexible defender who’s able to taking part in edge rusher and off-ball linebacker. His mixture of explosiveness, energy and physicality are all qualities that give him the potential to be a constructing block for a protection that already has star defensive sort out Jeffery Simmons. — Reid
FPI probability to earn No. 1 choose: 16.1%
FPI probability to earn high 5 choose: 76.3%
What was the largest drawback this season?
The whole program. The Giants fired coach Brian Daboll, defensive coordinator Shane Bowen and assistant defensive position coach Bryan Cox at totally different factors this season. The protection has been extraordinarily disappointing given the expertise (tied for thirtieth in yards allowed per play), however that’s simply a part of a much bigger drawback. The Giants’ management, tradition and locker room are all bitter. How else do you clarify successful 5 of the previous 31 video games? — Jordan Raanan
What lies forward within the schedule? Are they favored in any remaining video games?
FPI, which is especially keen on the Giants this season, favors them this week towards the Vikings (although Minnesota is a 3-point favourite at DraftKings). Subsequent week, each the betting line and FPI agree the Giants ought to be favored towards the Raiders. And our mannequin makes the Cowboys-Giants Week 18 recreation a choose ’em. All of that could be a huge a part of the rationale why the Giants aren’t increased on this checklist. — Walder
On a scale of 1-10, how possible is it they might commerce the choose?
8. Just like what I mentioned concerning the Titans, besides that the Giants may have a brand new coach and new GM if Joe Schoen is changed. And if that new management has considerations about quarterback Jaxson Dart’s sturdiness and felt 100% satisfied on a QB prospect on this class, possibly they make that transfer. However once more, it might be a serious shock from a company that has cause to consider in final spring’s first-round choice. — Graziano
Who’s the very best prospect match proper now for them at No. 1?
Reese. Just like the Titans, the Giants have their QB in place with Dart. With edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux coming into the ultimate yr of his rookie deal in 2026, Reese may flip into an edge rusher, off-ball linebacker hybrid if Thibodeaux shouldn’t be introduced again. Merely taking a greatest participant accessible method, he would make loads of sense as one other key addition on a protection with loads of younger expertise. — Reid
1:38
Why a full offseason may very well be key for Jaxson Dart’s progress
Jason McCourty and Jeff Saturday clarify how the upcoming offseason will probably be necessary for Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart.
FPI probability to earn No. 1 choose: 6.8%
FPI probability to earn high 5 choose: 77.8%
What was the largest drawback this season?
The whole lot besides particular groups. The protection regressed badly beneath defense-minded coach Aaron Glenn and coordinator Steve Wilks, leading to Wilks’ firing after 14 video games. The offense was weighed down by poor quarterback play, because the Justin Fields experiment was a convincing failure that value them $30 million in ensures. The Jets have some gamers on offense, however neither Fields, Tyrod Taylor nor Brady Cook dinner have been capable of provoke the unit. The group is at present ranked twenty seventh in Whole QBR (40.6). — Wealthy Cimini
What lies forward within the schedule? Are they favored in any remaining video games?
The Jets aren’t favored on the Saints, towards the Patriots and on the Payments to shut out the season. The Saints are taking part in nicely sufficient that they most likely will be capable of care for the Jets, so the large danger is available in Week 18 if the Payments have already misplaced the AFC East and do not have a lot to play for. — Walder
On a scale of 1-10, how possible is it they might commerce the choose?
1. The Jets are an entire clean slate at QB transferring ahead. They have no main cap points related with Fields or Aaron Rodgers anymore. They want a star at QB and can be unwise to go up an opportunity to draft one with the highest choose. — Graziano
Who’s the very best prospect match proper now for them at No. 1?
Dante Moore, QB, Oregon. With 5 first-round picks over the subsequent two seasons, the Jets have probably the most draft capital of any of the QB-needy groups. They’d like to preserve that future capital to construct round Moore after the Fields signing didn’t work out. Moore’s poise and ball placement challenge nicely in offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand’s system given his potential as a real distributor. — Reid
