Saints quarterback Derek Carr introduced his stunning however not stunning retirement from the NFL on Saturday. Throughout offseason coaching, Carr found a throwing shoulder harm that will have required surgical procedure, and he has now determined to step away from soccer on the age of 34.
The Saints are oddly nicely ready for Carr’s departure. They had been already geared as much as transfer on from him in 2026 for monetary causes and had been already eager about quarterbacks of the long run this offseason. Carr’s shoulder harm solely accelerated the Saints’ urgency find a younger passer to step into his sneakers. And with Carr’s standing nonetheless unclear through the NFL draft final month, the Saints chosen Louisville quarterback Tyler Shough with the fortieth decide.
Carr’s retirement now paves the way in which for Shough to win the beginning job, although coach Kellen Moore has known as for an open competitors between Shough, Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener for the spot. Neither Rattler nor Haener had been drafted by this teaching workers, and neither had been picked wherever close to as excessive as Shough. Plus, each have already had beginning alternatives and did not carry out nicely sufficient to stave off the Shough choice. With out query, the rookie is in pole place — if that is even a contest in any respect. Ought to Shough win the job, he’d be the primary rookie quarterback chosen exterior of the primary spherical to start out his first profession recreation since DeShone Kizer did it in 2017.
A seven-year collegiate participant and four-year starter at Oregon, Texas Tech and Louisville, Shough was a member of the 2018 recruiting class and is, accordingly, 25 years outdated. By midseason of his rookie 12 months, he’ll be 26. He is two years older than Rattler and just a few months youthful than Haener.
That Shough enters the league a lot older than the typical rookie implies some stage of professional readiness, which is nice information for a Saints group now in determined want of a starter. Nonetheless, due to Shough’s intensive accidents, he had solely 951 cross makes an attempt in school. Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart had 1,307. Browns quarterback Shedeur Sanders had 907 in simply two seasons with Colorado. Shough hasn’t really seen that a lot motion regardless of his age.
However expertise is not the one type of professional readiness. Whereas Shough hasn’t taken as many snaps as you may count on of a 25-year-old, he has been by means of many installs and offseason packages; he has labored with quite a lot of receivers and programs. It is cheap to count on extra from Shough than a mean rookie when it comes to onboarding the playbook and getting command of the locker room. We will count on him to have extra mature habits than a 21- or 22-year-old.
Shough’s remaining cease in school was at Louisville, and coach Jeff Brohm’s offense additional rosies up his instant projection as a Week 1 starter. Shough really took some under-center dropbacks with the Cardinals (solely 27, however relative to most school quarterbacks, that is fairly a bit). Fewer than 10% of Shough’s cross makes an attempt had been screens, one of many lowest charges within the nation. And you’ll find NFL ideas on his movie, like this deep play-action dropback with a excessive nook route on high of the crosser.
Tyler Shough throwing the excessive nook off play-action. Cannot drop it within the bucket significantly better than that. pic.twitter.com/WwImNydpmd
— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) April 1, 2025
This play can be an instance of Shough’s greatest trait: He has a formidable arm, particularly on vertical throws. Shough is able to dropping deep throws into difficult buckets, which is a nonnegotiable ability for beginning NFL signal-callers and doubly priceless on a group with one of many league’s preeminent deep threats in Rashid Shaheed. With good 6-foot-5 peak and the power to throw on the transfer, there is no cross that is not accessible to Shough. That provides Moore a full menu of ideas to work with on offense.
Figuring out precisely what kind of offense Moore want to run is the difficult half. He has been an offensive coordinator for the previous six seasons — 4 in Dallas with Dak Prescott, one in Los Angeles with Justin Herbert and one in Philadelphia with Jalen Hurts. His offense advanced over time in Dallas, after which it modified to accommodate Herbert and Hurts, in addition to the cross catchers and offensive strains out there for him at every spot.
Take quarterback alignment, as an illustration: Moore lined his quarterback up underneath middle an increasing number of ceaselessly throughout his time in Dallas, however then largely deserted it with the Chargers and Eagles. Then there may be his different display use. In his lone season with the Chargers, his display price spiked. Then it dropped again down in Philadelphia. There was one season wherein he ran a outstanding quantity of empty units (2021 in Dallas), one season wherein he was remarkably run-heavy (unsurprisingly, 2024 in Philadelphia) and one season wherein he was closely reliant on pre-snap movement (2023 in Los Angeles, although he has usually used extra movement than the typical coordinator).
What does Moore need to do in New Orleans, particularly now that he is the top honcho and never simply the offensive coordinator? He’ll alter his offense to the instruments out there to him, however Shough has by no means taken an NFL snap. When the slate is nearly fully clean, it is laborious to regulate the scheme to the present expectations.
Let’s step away from the quarterback and have a look at the sources, then. With a superb pass-catching again in Alvin Kamara, it is cheap to assume the Saints can be screen-heavy (and usually, just a little extra pass-heavy). A Kamara checkdown is as harmful and priceless as any within the league. Save for the Eagles in 2024, who had been predictably run-heavy, Moore’s groups have usually skewed to dropping again.
Nevertheless it won’t make sense for the remainder of the group. The Saints are missing in dimension and tackle-breaking capacity at receiver, however Shaheed and Chris Olave are two unfastened route runners who can win downfield. And the tight finish room in New Orleans is sort of deep, with Juwan Johnson (who simply obtained a pleasant extension), Foster Moreau and Taysom Hill. We simply noticed the Saints have some success with a two-wide-receiver, two-tight-end offense final season, earlier than Shaheed and Olave (and Carr and a number of inside offensive linemen) obtained harm. I would count on these multiple-tight-end units to be an enormous a part of the offense once more.
It will be good to depend on these deep play-action dropbacks with Olave and Shaheed screaming downfield, just like the Saints did final season. However you want a threatening working recreation to construct your passing menu out of the play-action cross. How the Saints select to run the ball is a captivating query. Moore has been in each zone-heavy and gap-heavy offenses, and he has operated with the QB each underneath middle and within the gun. From Philadelphia, he introduced run recreation coordinator T.J. Paganetti, a longtime Jeff Stoutland assistant. The Eagles run each idea underneath the solar. Shough has sufficient mobility to sometimes embrace himself within the QB run recreation, however he will not dominate touches the way in which Hurts does in Philadelphia.
The Saints’ offensive line thrived on zone runs final season underneath offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, an extension of the Kyle Shanahan teaching tree. The Saints are anticipated to start out two younger tackles in second-year man Taliese Fuaga (anticipated to change from the left aspect to the best aspect) and rookie first-rounder Kelvin Banks Jr. A heavy food plan of runs and play-action passes would shield the inexperienced duo from as many true one-on-one cross units as doable, which appears like a precedence.
And, in fact, Shough is an enormous a part of the equation. It is laborious to ask a rookie passer to run a pass-happy method. If Moore needs to unfold formations out, get 5 into the idea and transfer the ball within the fast recreation (as he largely did with Prescott in Dallas), he’d be placing additional helpings on Shough’s plate. As mentioned earlier, it is cheap to count on Shough to be extra professional prepared than the typical rookie quarterback — however solely to a degree.
Shough is a superb quick-game thrower and seems to be a rhythm passer. He likes to tie ideas to the timing of his toes, and you may really feel him get comfy as he begins to string fast completions collectively. The priority is that Shough does not have the quickest toes — he is a taller, longer QB — and he is not a very sudden or versatile thrower. When throws do not come out in rhythm, there could be huge moments of accuracy drain, particularly if strain is concerned.
Take this checkdown in opposition to Clemson. A smaller, bouncier quarterback would extra simply reset his throwing platform or sidearm this throw in, however Shough’s toes are heavy, and he is not a very elastic thrower. This ball sails.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) Might 10, 2025
Shough has good snaps as a processor and distributor, however he isn’t on the stage of Prescott or Herbert there, and it’ll possible take him a few years to get there. How nicely he acclimates to NFL coverages and the way rapidly he operates in opposition to NFL throwing home windows will outline simply how pass-happy Moore can get in New Orleans. Within the quick time period, utilizing Shough extra as a moon-ball launcher behind a run-heavy philosophy — a la Hurts in 2024 — feels optimum.
In that Shough was a top-50 decide of the brand new teaching workers, the brand new system will possible be constructed with him in thoughts. However it’s value noting that Shough has one of many cardinal weaknesses that rapidly lampoons rookie quarterbacks — particularly these compelled into early motion. He’s extraordinarily shaky round strain.
Shough is a strong avoider of sacks however primarily as a result of he has an especially fast alarm system and bails early. Of the 5 quarterbacks taken within the first three rounds, Shough’s 8.6% sack price when pressured is almost half that of the subsequent greatest (Cam Ward at 14.5%). However escaping sacks is simply the primary a part of making performs underneath strain; NFL quarterbacks should be capable to throw from pockets muddied by penetration, speed up their throwing course of to beat an incoming hit and make cool-headed selections whereas underneath duress. Shough tends to fade away from hits, which dramatically impacts his accuracy, and can launch panic throws when he is aware of he is happening.
The excellent news is that Shough will not let hits accumulate, as a result of he is so keen to throw the ball as much as keep away from a sack. The quickest technique to wreck a rookie quarterback is to interrupt him with contact. The unhealthy information is that it doesn’t matter what form of offense Moore runs for him, Shough may put a tough cap on the ceiling of that offense if he is solely in a position to make huge performs when his pocket is completely protected.
In Rattler’s six begins final season, there was loads of worrying stuff — 22 sacks and 5 interceptions — however he was keen to increase performs and create explosive features when pressured. If a calmer and extra correct Rattler reveals as much as coaching camp this 12 months, the 2024 fifth-rounder will push Shough for the beginning job early. He has a extra spectacular arm and higher motion abilities.
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Tyler Shough’s NFL draft profile
Try Louisville QB Tyler Shough’s NFL draft résumé.
Expectations ought to at all times be tempered for a second-round rookie quarterback, particularly on a group just like the Saints that does not have elite offensive personnel. Nevertheless it’s doubly powerful to prognosticate how nicely Shough will play as a result of we won’t actually predict what Moore will do with this offense schematically. Whereas Moore has lengthy adjusted his offense for the veteran quarterbacks he has inherited, there’s additionally an opportunity he runs his ideally suited offense and requires the rookie QB to regulate his recreation to it.
Shough does a lot nicely as a pocket passer and processor, so if the scheme is sound and the receivers are profitable, this Saints operation has an opportunity of being way more purposeful than one may count on. Nevertheless it additionally has an opportunity of being a catastrophe.
There aren’t many offenses with a wider vary of outcomes than New Orleans, the place the brand new coach and new quarterback maintain all of the playing cards.
