If we’re being trustworthy, this complete week is an overreaction, proper? We have identified 2025 opponents for each NFL staff because the finish of the 2024 common season. Wednesday evening’s announcement of the complete 2025 schedule — following a number of days’ value of individual-game reveals (principally involving the Eagles) — is especially noteworthy as a result of it presents followers and reporters the possibility to make a bunch of flight and lodge reservations.
However hey, it’s enjoyable. We sit right here in the midst of Could, with the NBA and NHL playoffs dominating sports activities protection, feeling about as removed from the NFL season as doable. So to see it begin to take form — to play the win-win-lose-win-lose-win sport along with your favourite staff’s game-by-game schedule — is an effective feeling for NFL followers. We need to deal with it like a sport week. And you already know what meaning …
That is proper. It is schedule launch overreactions! Let’s decide whether or not a number of potential takeaways from the 2025 schedule are respectable or irrational.
Notice: To evaluate power of schedule all through these overreactions, we used the admittedly imperfect technique of utilizing opponent win-loss data from the earlier season.
Bounce to a possible overreaction on:
49ers’ very straightforward schedule
Giants’ very laborious schedule
Lions’ highway/outside schedule
Vikings’ worldwide schedule
Cowboys’ second-half schedule
The 49ers will cruise again into the playoffs
Flip the calendar again a 12 months and the 49ers have been one of many strongest favorites to succeed in and even win the Tremendous Bowl. They have been on a three-year streak of advancing no less than to the NFC Championship Sport and had simply misplaced the Tremendous Bowl to the Chiefs in extra time. However a surprising rash of accidents — most notably to star operating again Christian McCaffrey — sunk San Francisco’s 2024 season. The Niners completed 6-11 and in final place within the NFC West.
This 12 months, the 49ers venture to have the league’s best 17-game slate. Their 2025 opponents mixed for a .415 win proportion in 2024. Their nondivision dwelling video games are towards the Falcons, Panthers, Jaguars, Titans and Bears, and their nondivision away video games are towards the Browns, Texans, Colts, Saints, Buccaneers and Giants. There are simply two 2024 playoff groups on San Francisco’s out-of-division schedule this season (Texans and Buccaneers), and the one in-division video games it should play towards 2024 playoff groups are the 2 versus the Rams.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Oh, it’s very truthful to anticipate the 49ers to bounce again and be a contender this season. Through the Kyle Shanahan period, they have been precisely that at any time when they have been capable of keep away from the type of horrible damage luck they’d final season. However it’s necessary to recollect how a lot has modified in San Francisco this offseason.
The Niners have mentioned goodbye to large receiver Deebo Samuel Sr., guard Aaron Banks, defensive deal with Javon Hargrave, linebacker Dre Greenlaw, cornerback Charvarius Ward and security Talanoa Hufanga. Practically half of the beginning lineup from the Tremendous Bowl they performed in 15 months in the past is not on the staff. They nonetheless have Brock Purdy at quarterback, and getting McCaffrey, wideout Brandon Aiyuk and left deal with Trent Williams again wholesome will definitely assist. However it’s not truthful to anticipate the 2025 49ers to only snap again to what they have been in 2023.
Additionally, the previous three groups that entered the season with the “best” schedule (once more, in accordance with earlier marketing campaign’s successful percentages) all completed with shedding data. That tells you a large number in regards to the relevancy of getting the “best” schedule.
Jaxson Dart would be the Giants’ beginning quarterback by November
The Giants traded as much as choose Dart within the first spherical of this 12 months’s draft as a result of they consider he may be their franchise quarterback of the longer term. Additionally they signed veterans Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston in free company, giving them beginning QB choices in case they did not get one within the draft or the man they did draft wasn’t prepared to start out instantly. The Giants’ plan, as of now, is to start out Wilson and provides Dart as a lot time as he must get prepared — the entire 2025 season, if want be. And the truth that the Giants have the toughest schedule within the NFL could possibly be an enormous purpose to let Dart have the entire season to be taught behind the veterans.
After all, the tough-looking schedule additionally might imply the Giants fall out of rivalry early and determine to get Dart some NFL sport expertise in a lower-pressure surroundings. The Giants have video games at Washington, Dallas, New Orleans, Denver and Philadelphia within the first eight weeks of the season, and their three dwelling video games in that stretch are towards the Chiefs, Chargers and Eagles.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Everyone knows this by no means works, proper? Groups at all times say they need to give their rookie quarterback no matter time he wants, and so they fairly often say they’re prepared to sit down him the complete season if wanted. Assume again to final season’s Patriots, who began Jacoby Brissett whereas rookie Drake Maye rode the bench to start the marketing campaign. However inevitably, as soon as losses begin piling up, the staff decides it has to make a change. The Patriots gained their opener however misplaced the following 4 video games, and Maye was the beginning QB in Week 6 (and for the remainder of the season).
Actually the one time this rest-the-rookie-all-season plan has labored was with the 2017 Chiefs, who began 5-0 and stayed in first place all season behind Alex Smith whereas Patrick Mahomes sat on the bench. (And even then, Mahomes performed with backups within the closing sport of the common season.) The chances of the Giants beginning 5-0 towards the Commanders, Cowboys, Chiefs, Chargers and Saints and staying in first place all season really feel slim, at finest.
1:57
Orlovsky: The Giants ought to lean on Russell Wilson early on
Dan Orlovsky chats with Pat McAfee in regards to the Giants quarterbacks, and why they need to be affected person with Jaxson Dart.
The entire historical past round these conditions tells us Dart will play sooner or later this season. Wilson hasn’t been an excellent beginning quarterback for the previous 4 years. Winston is a stopgap man at this level in his profession. Dart is the Giants’ future, and until their current goes to be a really nice shock to lots of people, they are going to need to get that future going as quickly as doable. It could possibly be as early as Week 5 at New Orleans or after the Week 6 Thursday evening sport towards the visiting Eagles or following the Week 8 contest in Philly.
The Lions’ two-year NFC North title streak will come to an finish
After not successful their division since 1993, the Lions completed first with a 12-5 file in 2023 and repeated as NFC North champs at 15-2 final season. They’ve seen a number of turnover on their teaching employees this offseason, with offensive coordinator Ben Johnson now the coach of the Bears and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn the brand new coach of the Jets. However the roster stays extraordinarily sturdy on paper, and getting star edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson again from his season-ending leg damage ought to solely assist.
It is necessary to recollect, although, that this division had three playoff groups final season and the Lions wanted to beat Minnesota within the closing sport of the common season to seal their second straight division title.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
To not take something in any respect away from the sensible season that Dan Campbell’s bunch simply had, however you would possibly recall that 15 of the 18 video games they performed (together with their playoff matchup) have been indoors. Positive, they gained all three of their outside video games — at Inexperienced Bay in Week 9, at Chicago in Week 16 and at San Francisco in Week 17. However let’s not neglect that Lions quarterback Jared Goff has a 51.4 profession QBR and a 1.9 profession TD/INT ratio in outside video games versus a 61.7 QBR and a 3.2 TD/INT ratio in indoor video games.
Why does this matter? Nicely, this season’s Lions schedule options seven outside video games. Along with their annual in-division journeys to Inexperienced Bay and Chicago, the Lions play at Philadelphia, Washington, Kansas Metropolis, Baltimore and Cincinnati. And of Detroit’s 9 highway opponents, seven made the playoffs in 2024. The Lions’ highway foes this season mixed for a .667 win proportion in 2024, giving Detroit the hardest highway power of schedule by any staff within the Tremendous Bowl period.
Issue within the power of the division, practically half of their video games being open air and having to play highway matchups towards 5 groups that went deeper than they did within the 2024 postseason, and the Lions’ path to a three-peat within the NFC North appears very daunting.
The Vikings acquired a uncooked cope with back-to-back video games in Dublin and London
The Vikings will journey to play the Steelers within the first NFL sport in Dublin in Week 4 then will face the Browns in London in Week 5. It’s the first time a staff will play consecutive NFL video games in several international locations exterior of the USA.
The association possible will maintain the Vikings away from dwelling for 10 days, as they will absolutely keep abroad for the week between the 2 video games slightly than fly dwelling and fly again. And in what shapes up as an extremely aggressive NFC North, it is the type of factor that might set a staff again if it does not deal with it the suitable approach.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
The Vikings are cool with this, guys. They knew about it properly forward of time. Coach Kevin O’Connell informed London reporters that it was “type of a joint choice” between the staff and the NFL. And whereas it’s historic to be taking part in video games in consecutive weeks in two totally different overseas international locations, it is not like these international locations are Australia and Finland. The flight from Dublin to London is not for much longer than the flight from Minneapolis to Inexperienced Bay, which the Vikings make yearly.
The previous couple of years, the Jaguars have performed consecutive weeks in London and stayed over in between. O’Connell and his employees are positive to make use of the ten days away as a bonding expertise for the staff.
And as O’Connell identified the opposite day when the video games have been introduced, the Vikings are technically the highway staff in each of those video games. That implies that whereas most NFC groups will play 9 highway video games this season, the Vikings will play seven precise highway matchups and two neutral-site video games. The Vikings have by no means gained at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, and so they’ve gained just one sport in Cleveland since 1989. That is two would-be outside highway video games in hostile locations that may get chilly and windy that the Vikings now do not have to fret about this season. Minnesota goes to be simply superb with this association.
The Cowboys might have a really sad vacation season
Dallas has a Week 10 bye, which is simply in regards to the splendid time to have one. The Cowboys additionally come out of it to play on a Monday evening (in Las Vegas). So, the Cowboys could have 13 days off earlier than beginning the second half of their season. They’d higher relaxation up …
After the Raiders sport, the Cowboys have a house matchup towards the Eagles on quick relaxation then a Thanksgiving Day sport towards the visiting Chiefs on even shorter relaxation. So after practically two weeks with out taking part in, they will have three video games in 11 days, with two of these coming towards final season’s Tremendous Bowl groups. Then they’re at Detroit the next Thursday earlier than dwelling video games towards the Vikings and Chargers in Weeks 15 and 16. Dallas is then at Washington on Christmas Day on one other Sunday-to-Thursday turnaround earlier than ending with a probable layup towards the Giants in New Jersey.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
I imply, even acknowledging the truth that all the identical groups that have been good final season aren’t positive to be good once more this season, that could be a tough stretch. Three short-week video games within the closing six weeks of the season isn’t any staff’s concept of a great time. All 4 of the Cowboys’ post-bye highway video games are in several time zones than the one they play in. And all 4 of their post-bye dwelling video games are towards groups that made the playoffs final season.
If the Cowboys need to take their flip within the annual flip-flopping of the NFC East title between them and Philadelphia, they may should construct up an enormous pre-bye division lead.
