The anticipated UFC 316 card — anchored by Merab Dvalishvili going for a second win over Sean O’Malley — is heavy on drama and underdogs.
Let’s get proper to swinging with a take a look at the perfect bets for this struggle card:
Serghei Spivac (-140) to beat Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Spivac is a significantly better wrestler than Cortes-Acosta, and whereas Spivac’s stand-up sport is missing, his 8-inch attain benefit on this struggle ought to assist him reduce a number of the hole in that space.
4 of Spivac’s 5 losses within the UFC have come by knockout, and Cortes-Acosta’s energy isn’t all that daunting regardless of his benefit within the stand-up sport — he has only a 46.2% knockout charge in his 13 bouts.
I count on Spivac to climate the storm early earlier than profiting from a tiring Cortes-Acosta on the bottom within the second half of the struggle en route to a victory by determination or a late submission.
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Sean O’Malley (+220) to beat Merab Dvalishvili
As somebody who efficiently guess on Dvalishvili within the first bout in opposition to O’Malley on the Sphere this previous September, one thing feels completely different about this struggle.
O’Malley appears infinitely extra targeted within the lead-up, having minimized his distractions and antics outdoors of the octagon. He really saved that first struggle nearer than most bear in mind, regardless of Dvalishvili’s goal victory — and he even had Dvalishvili on the ropes slightly bit within the fifth and ultimate spherical.
O’Malley’s coach has mentioned in current interviews that he believed the Sphere’s lighting and ambiance contributed to O’Malley’s loss, which isn’t that arduous to imagine if you happen to’ve ever been inside that factor.
Then again, we’ve nonetheless gotten the identical previous, standard from Dvalishvili in his struggle camp. He’s nonetheless posting his accidents on his Instagram Story — a lot to Dana White’s dismay — which tells me he won’t be taking O’Malley that significantly.
When it comes to mentality, it feels just like the playing cards have flipped from the primary struggle, and that’s why I really feel snug rolling with O’Malley’s worth right here.
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Kayla Harrison vs. Julianna Peña beneath 3.5 rounds (-140)
Kayla Harrison is out to show she’s the UFC’s largest star within the ladies’s division this Saturday, and he or she enters as a large -800 favourite to win the belt — regardless of getting into because the challenger — in opposition to scrappy Julianna Peña.
Regardless of this, Harrison’s odds to win the struggle by determination are simply +235. Which means Vegas is confidently predicting a stoppage.
Contemplating Peña is a extra skilled fighter who possesses knockout energy in her personal proper, I count on her to go trying to find the kill early — understanding she has a diminishing likelihood with every second Harrison stays acutely aware.
Peña isn’t a scrub both, as she carries two wins over former champion Amanda Nunes. Somebody is getting stopped on this one — and it is going to be earlier than the fourth-round bell. Seemingly Peña.
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