Predicting the winner of NASCAR’s $1 million in-season bracket problem

NASCAR’s annual All-Star Race provides no factors and has no influence on the champion, however a million {dollars} is loads of incentive for the drivers to present it their all. Nicely, it is now not the one occasion that provides such a prize as NASCAR introduces an in-season match that can span 5 weeks by the complete broadcast run on TNT.

The motive force who prevails ultimately will acquire the $1 million prize, and any fan who can fill out an ideal bracket may even earn that a lot. We’re not so daring to imagine we will get all of it good, particularly with a avenue course, street course, and a drafting-track within the combine — however possibly we will decide the general winner?

First, be at liberty to try the Spherical 1 matchups, which you’ll find HERE. And under, you’ll find our full record of predictions after which we’ll take a deeper dive into all, specializing in the last word winner.

In-Season Problem Predictions

Sure, Hendrick versus Hendrick within the last would not appear to be the boldest prediction, however we by no means stated we had been going out on a limb right here.

Nonetheless, the very fact that there’s a avenue course and a street course in the midst of this match goes to massively assist drivers like Daniel Suarez and Ty Gibbs, who ought to be fairly aggressive at each Sonoma and Chicago.

Nonetheless, we imagine the ultimate matchup will come down two Hendrick champions as the game’s Most Widespread Driver and the versatile dash automotive star go head-to-head within the Brickyard 400. Now, let’s discuss how they get to the finals within the first place.

Spherical 1 is a troublesome race to foretell because the reconfigured Atlanta behaves extra like a chaotic superspeedway nowadays. Chase Elliott has received at this model of his dwelling observe earlier than, and whereas Kyle Larson has been unfortunate in terms of incidents at Atlanta, he practically received this race earlier this 12 months. Elliott will beat Austin Dillon, who hasn’t completed larger than sixteenth at Atlanta within the Subsequent Gen period and would wish some luck to fall his approach. Larson and Tyler Reddick feels extra like a toss-up however 23XI Racing has simply been off as of late and we do not anticipate their fortune to alter anytime quickly.

Turning proper and left

Now onto Spherical 2 the place NASCAR heads to the Chicago Avenue Course. Elliott has been very robust within the street cours occasions this 12 months, and there isn’t any purpose to anticipate that to alter within the close to future. He’ll defeat Josh Berry, who simply is not that nice at these sort of tracks. His common end on street programs this 12 months is twenty sixth, and he positioned thirty sixth at Chicago in 2024. As for Larson, he was very quick at Chicago final 12 months earlier than he wrecked within the rain. He’ll beat Carson Hocevar, who has been within the highlight for each good and unhealthy causes recently. These distractions, alongside along with his dismal exhibiting at Mexico Metropolis and a goal on his again, leads me to imagine that he’ll fall to Larson in Chicago.

Spherical 3 is one other street course, this time at Sonoma, As soon as once more, we must always completely anticipate each Elliott and Larson to be contenders. Larson is definitely the defending winner of this race, dominating in 2024. Ryan Preece, whereas impressively constant, would not stand a lot of an opportunity if he faces Larson at Sonoma. Elliott’s combat might be a lot more durable as he has to cope with Christopher Bell, one other very succesful street racer. Nonetheless, I give Elliott the sting simply due to how remarkably constant he has been in 2025. Elliott has zero DNFs and no finishes outdoors the highest 20.

The ultimate two oval races

Kyle Larson, Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet

Picture by: Sean Gardner / Getty Photographs

Spherical 4 brings NASCAR again to a extra conventional oval at Dover. Each Elliott and Larson have received there earlier than and if issues go the best way we predicted, then Dover ought to be a relatively straightforward win for the 2 of them. Each Suarez and Gibbs surprisingly make it to the semi-finals, helped by back-to-back street/avenue programs the place they need to run very nicely. However at Dover, they will not be to in a position to match these two Hendrick drivers.

And with that, we arrive on the last showdown at Indianapolis. Larson is the defending winner of the Brickyard 400, so it might appear to be he’s the simple selection on this state of affairs. Nonetheless, Elliott was additionally very robust at IMS final 12 months, however a mid-race penalty hindered his efforts. And whereas we anticipate Larson to have the sting at Indy, Elliott takes the large prize ultimately for one purpose — consistency.

As beforehand said, Elliott is probably the most constant driver this 12 months with the perfect common end within the area. Larson, whereas quick, has been concerned in a number of incidents and hassle typically finds him. If he can hold his nostril clear within the crown jewel race, he may simply win all of it, however we predict Elliott might be rock strong it doesn’t matter what and take the $1 million for himself (though he wasn’t even conscious of the prize till a couple of days in the past).