Is Oscar Piastri proper to be frightened in regards to the "worst place" to begin on Spa F1 pole?

Regardless of taking an totally dominant Method 1 dash pole on the Belgian Grand Prix, McLaren’s Oscar Piastri wasn’t getting too excited simply but over his victory possibilities on Saturday morning.

“Spa’s in all probability one of many worst locations to have pole place, so yeah… it’s what it’s,” a muted Australian stated after beating Max Verstappen by 5 tenths, and team-mate Lando Norris by six. “However I feel the tempo within the automobile all day has been actually sturdy and I’ve felt very assured. So, hopefully we are able to get a superb begin and try to win the dash.”

With its lengthy straights on the run as much as Flip 5’s Les Combes, punctuated by the Eau Rouge – Raidillon mixture, Piastri is anticipating to have a giant problem on his arms to maintain his lead in opposition to the chasing Verstappen and Norris.

However are Piastri’s fears justified? Maybe not a lot in the event you take a look at latest historical past. Since 2017 the lead solely modified arms twice on lap one; in 2018 when Sebastian Vettel pulled off a slingshot round Lewis Hamilton, and in 2023 when polesitter Charles Leclerc was handed by Purple Bull’s Sergio Perez into Les Combes.

Ignoring the shambolic, rained out 2021 version and the moist 2023 dash, the polesitter has efficiently defended his lead in all different editions, with it having been extra widespread for the second-placed driver to come back beneath strain as an alternative.

Lead modifications at first at Spa

12 months	High three on the grid	High three after lap one
2017	Hamilton, Vettel, Bottas	Hamilton, Vettel, Bottas
2018	Hamilton, Vettel, Ocon	Vettel, Hamilton, Perez
2019	Leclerc, Vettel, Hamilton	Leclerc, Vettel, Hamilton
2020	Hamilton, Bottas, Verstappen	Hamilton, Bottas, Verstappen
2022	Sainz, Perez, Alonso	Sainz, Perez, Russell
2023	Leclerc, Perez, Hamilton	Perez, Leclerc, Hamilton
2024	Sainz, Perez, Hamilton	Sainz, Hamilton, Perez

The Max issue

Verstappen has been mired within the midfield throughout latest Spa begins

Picture by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Photos

However there are a selection of caveats which can be distorting this small pattern dimension, similar to Perez twice having a horrible begin from second in 2022 and 2024 and Verstappen not having been within the body over the previous three years as Purple Bull has constructed up one thing of a convention to take engine penalties in Belgium.

Not so this 12 months, and what’s extra Purple Bull – as at Silverstone – has opted for a decrease downforce set-up in comparison with its rivals to profit total lap time, even whether it is delivery time in slower corners.

McLaren introduced a formidable trying rear wing improve that has made its automobile extra aerodynamically environment friendly, so it could actually run extra downforce with a smaller drag penalty on the straight. However, with Verstappen’s set-up, the RB21 remains to be a mean of 4km/h quicker on the lengthy Kemmel Straight in direction of Les Combes, and on the run from Blanchimont to the Bus Cease chicane.

A take a look at the telemetry reveals Verstappen actually solely loses time within the slower corners, similar to Bruxelles, Fagnes, Stavelot and the chicane, delivery 4 tenths of his five-tenth deficit in sector two’s Fagnes and Stavelot alone. That trade-off is greater than Purple Bull anticipated, Helmut Marko instructed Motorsport.com. “We thought we’d be nearer, however in sector two we’re simply dropping 4 tenths,” he stated. “Not solely us, however all the opposite drivers are additionally dropping this quantity and much more. We made a step ahead, however clearly it is not sufficient to battle Piastri.”

However, if Verstappen does get forward on the straight, will he be capable of make life troublesome for the McLaren to discover a method again previous, like he did in Japan? With McLaren’s tempo benefit and superior tyre administration in thoughts, the Dutchman shouldn’t be satisfied.

“I imply, while you’re virtually 5 tenths off, I do not suppose going quicker or slower on the straight goes to matter loads,” he stated. “We simply should do our personal race and see what we are able to do.”