Final 12 months, we led this piece about essentially the most favorable touchdown spots for brand new NFL head coaches with a warning that “predicting the longer term within the NFL is commonly an train in futility.” Nicely, we clearly did not heed our personal recommendation as a result of we’re again right here once more a 12 months later for one more spherical of punishment.
Certain, the top-two conditions we highlighted — the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Chargers — went a mixed 21-13, proof of their instant payoff with new coaches Mike Macdonald and Jim Harbaugh. However the perfect document of all groups who received new coaches belonged to the Washington Commanders beneath Dan Quinn, a scenario we admittedly mentioned had future potential that was “much less tangible, and subsequently much less predictable” with rookie QB Jayden Daniels. After all, that was earlier than Daniels went out and had presumably the best rookie season in NFL historical past, taking Washington to the NFC title sport within the course of.
We will not rule out one other shock run like that this season, particularly since plenty of the teaching hires are taking on jobs with both veteran QBs who’ve a historical past of success, or younger ones nonetheless chasing their full potential. For that cause alone, any may show extra transformative than anticipated. Nonetheless, historical past reveals that sure basic patterns do are likely to separate new coaches who succeed from those that do not.
We got down to quantify what sort of scenario every of 2025’s new head coaches is strolling into. Particularly, we created a regression mannequin that appears eventually season’s crew high quality (utilizing a mixture of Elo scores and SRS scores); common roster age throughout offense, protection and particular groups; and the age and monitor document of their quarterbacks (utilizing a QB’s established degree of Approximate Worth, or AV, per season from the previous three years).
For all seven hires — Ben Johnson (Bears), Pete Carroll (Raiders), Mike Vrabel (Patriots), Liam Coen (Jaguars), Brian Schottenheimer (Cowboys), Aaron Glenn (Jets) and Kellen Moore (Saints) — we fed the numbers into the mannequin to estimate anticipated wins over the subsequent 5 seasons.
After all, every coach will change the trajectory of the franchise from right here on out in his personal means. Consider these rankings much less as predictions and extra as snapshots of the foundations they’re ranging from.
So which sideline boss landed within the cushiest spot, and who drew the quick straw?
Anticipated 5-year wins: 41.1
Beginning QB: Dak Prescott (9.8 weighted AV per season; age 32)
2024 Elo: nineteenth | Offense: twenty first | Protection: thirtieth
2024 common age: 26.7 (18th youngest)
Key stat: Out of the 18 NFL groups who missed the playoffs final season, Dallas had essentially the most complete wins over the three seasons previous to that (36).
Followers and analysts might need disagreed with the selection of Schottenheimer — a longtime coordinator who has by no means been a head coach earlier than — as Mike McCarthy’s substitute. However there isn’t any query that he’s strolling right into a scenario ripe with prospects. Dallas went 7-10 in 2024, even in a nightmare season with Prescott sidelined for greater than half the schedule. Plus, they’re only a season faraway from a 12-5 marketing campaign wherein they ranked fifth on protection and led the league in scoring, breaking 500 factors for simply the second time in franchise historical past. A lot relies on the supply of the crew’s high-end expertise, which is perpetually in query as a consequence of elements starting from accidents (Prescott) to contract disputes (Micah Parsons). Nonetheless, Schottenheimer inherits a crew with a confirmed monitor document of profitable ballgames, and it has the potential to make the playoffs once more instantly.
Anticipated 5-year wins: 40.7
Beginning QB: Caleb Williams (9.0 weighted AV per season; age 24)
2024 Elo: twenty fourth | Offense: twenty ninth | Protection: ninth
2024 common age: 26.4 (tenth youngest)
Key stat: With an AV of 12 final 12 months, Williams is coming off the perfect rookie season by a Bears QB ever, topping the earlier mark of 8 co-owned by Jim McMahon (1982) and Mitchell Trubisky (2017).
Pleasure is excessive within the Windy Metropolis forward of the 2025 season and with good cause. Johnson was the genius playcaller behind the offensive success of the Detroit Lions over the previous three seasons, throughout which period they by no means ranked decrease than fifth in scoring, and Jared Goff led all quarterbacks with 13,642 passing yards. What he has to work with now could be the expertise of Williams now behind an improved offensive line, a strong set of pass-catching targets (led by D.J. Moore) and a protection that was top-10 by SRS final 12 months that can now be coordinated by Dennis Allen. As well as, the Bears have been the unluckiest crew within the league by way of precise wins versus what we’d count on from their level margin, so some enchancment there may be seemingly. The components continues to be a bit conservative on them just because Chicago has had precisely one profitable season up to now 12 years, however the components are there for Johnson to succeed the place so many different Bears coaches have failed through the years.
Anticipated 5-year wins: 39.5
Beginning QB: Trevor Lawrence (9.2 weighted AV per season; age 26)
2024 Elo: twenty sixth | Offense: twenty seventh | Protection: twenty eighth
2024 common age: 25.8 (2nd youngest)
Key stat: No Jaguars head coach has a profitable document with the franchise, aside from Tom Coughlin (at 68-60).
The newest product of the Sean McVay NFL teaching tree, Coen will go from serving to the profession rehabilitation of Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay to serving to Lawrence salvage his repute as a generational quarterback prospect in Jacksonville. There are worse duties to be assigned to, and Lawrence was tied for the Sixteenth-most AV by a QB ever at ages 23-24 earlier than a depressing, injury-marred mess of a 2024 season. Regardless of the shine coming off a bit, his potential is way from squandered. After which there’s the game-changing ceiling of 2025’s No. 2 total decide, Travis Hunter, whose potential influence on each side of the ball is almost unparalleled in NFL historical past. You may have made hay betting in opposition to new Jags coaches since Coughlin (see above), so nothing is assured, however Coen has the important thing gamers who would possibly lastly flip the franchise round.
Anticipated 5-year wins: 39.2
Beginning QB: Justin Fields (9.1 weighted AV per season; age 26)
2024 Elo: twenty second | Offense: twenty third | Protection: twenty first
2024 common age: 27.7 (thirty first youngest)
Key stat: The Jets’ present playoff drought of 14 seasons just isn’t solely the longest energetic skid within the league, nevertheless it’s additionally double the next-longest drought (Carolina and Atlanta at seven seasons apiece).
Along with his résumé main the Lions to the league’s seventh-best scoring protection a 12 months in the past, Glenn was employed partially to deliver a tradition of toughness and professionalism to the Jets, within the mould of the Invoice Parcells groups he performed for in New York. Should you squint, you’ll be able to see the resemblance in what Glenn has to work with right here, from the reclamation venture quarterback (Fields as Vinny Testaverde) to the outspoken broad receiver (Garrett Wilson as Keyshawn Johnson), the multipurpose working again (Breece Corridor as Curtis Martin), the star move rusher (Quinnen Williams as Mo Lewis) and the Professional Bowl cornerback (Sauce Gardner as Glenn himself). OK, wonderful, so possibly that is all a little bit of a stretch — however the level is that Glenn has the blueprint for a turnaround, if not the complete basis.
Anticipated 5-year wins: 39.0
Beginning QB: Geno Smith (12.3 weighted AV per season; age 35)
2024 Elo: twenty seventh | Offense: twenty sixth | Protection: twenty sixth
2024 common age: 26.4 (ninth youngest)
Key stat: Carroll has completed beneath .500 simply 4 occasions in his 18-year NFL teaching profession. The Raiders have completed above .500 simply twice up to now 22 years. One thing’s gotta give!
The Raiders are an fascinating case right here, as a result of Las Vegas had one of many 10 youngest rosters within the league final season, with all however two of their 13 greatest gamers by AV sitting beneath age 30 — highlighted by 22-year-old tight finish Brock Bowers, who ranked third within the NFL with 1,194 receiving yards. Lengthy-term projection fashions love younger expertise like that, however the signature Raider strikes of the offseason have been bringing in a coach who will flip 74 in Week 2 and a quarterback who will flip 35 simply earlier than Week 6. Each have a longtime monitor document of success — together with their work collectively in 2022-23 — and thus provide Vegas an opportunity to enhance instantly. However the necessity to discover one other new coach/quarterback combo sooner somewhat than later is a drag on their projection.
Anticipated 5-year wins: 38.8
Beginning QB: Drake Maye (6.0 weighted AV per season; age 23)
2024 Elo: twenty eighth | Offense: thirtieth | Protection: twenty second
2024 common age: 26.4 (eighth youngest)
Key stat: New England has misplaced extra video games up to now 5 years (51) than within the 14 seasons previous to that (50).
Everybody agreed that Vrabel’s reunion with the Patriots made far an excessive amount of sense to not occur. With it, there can be an infusion of that acquainted Belichickian ethos of no-nonsense grit, plus the expertise of a coach who went 54-45 with three playoff appearances in 5 years with the Tennessee Titans. (And he introduced again one of many nice offensive coordinators in Josh McDaniels.) Nonetheless, anticipating a real revival of the Pats’ dynasty is a bit untimely. Maye’s passing effectivity stays a piece in progress, although his mobility propped up his QBR. The crew was considered one of simply seven with an SRS score of -1.9 or worse on each side of the ball, which was an indication of how a lot renovation was wanted. Nonetheless, an offseason spending spree has locked them right into a bunch of massive bets instantly — a threat after we think about how unpredictable the outcomes of offseason strikes will be. All of this explains why the Patriots rank decrease than their match with Vrabel would appear to point.
Anticipated 5-year wins: 38.0
Beginning QB: Spencer Rattler (1.5 weighted AV per season; age 25)
2024 Elo: twenty fifth | Offense: twenty fifth | Protection: 18th
2024 common age: 27.6 (twenty seventh youngest)
Key stat: Irrespective of whether or not Rattler or Tyler Shough begins at QB, 2025 will function essentially the most inexperienced Saints main QB by earlier profession AV since a minimum of Steve Walsh — who had 2 earlier AV — in 1990.
The drop-off from the conditions above to what Moore is inheriting in New Orleans is steep, reflecting a crew that simply posted its worst document since 2005 after which abruptly misplaced beginning QB Derek Carr, who retired from the NFL. (Security Tyrann Mathieu adopted him into retirement in July.) What’s left is a full-scale rebuild, with solely Cam Jordan, Demario Davis, Alvin Kamara, Carl Granderson, Davon Godchaux and Brandin Cooks providing confirmed manufacturing from their careers or current seasons. At 36, Moore is the league’s youngest head coach — which strains up with the long-term timetable for New Orleans to contend once more, if he can endure the losses more likely to pile up within the meantime.
