The second spherical of the 2025 NASCAR Cup playoffs takes the highest degree of the game by New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Kansas Speedway, and can finish with an elimination race on the Charlotte Roval.
Alex Bowman, Shane van Gisbergen, Austin Dillon, and Josh Berry have did not advance, and whereas Motorsport.com did not get 100% in our first-round exit predictions, that will not cease us from giving it our greatest go for the Spherical of 12.
Senior NASCAR editor Matt Weaver acquired 50% appropriate as he predicted Berry and Dillon’s early eliminations, however each Ross Chastain and Austin Cindric did handle to maneuver on. Longtime information supervisor Nick DeGroot additionally acquired 50%, appropriately selecting Berry and Dillon, however incorrectly naming Tyler Reddick and Cindric.
The No. 2 Penske driver proved each of us improper, transferring on even after his Ford Mustang went up in flames within the closing laps of the Bristol cutoff race.
Matt Weaver’s Spherical of 12 eliminations
Chase Elliott with injury, Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
Photograph by: Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire by way of Getty Photographs
Chase Elliott: That is the spherical the place there’s at all times one actual shock elimination. However the factor is, by Elliott’s personal summation, this is not a championship caliber program proper now. That does not imply they can not flip it on. In actual fact, it’s simply as probably they win the championship as it’s they get eradicated. New Hampshire goes to be actually vital for the Hendrick Motorsports No. 9 staff as a result of they contended for the win at flat monitor Gateway, however that can also be a distinct guidelines bundle so it’s an open query which Elliott reveals up.
Austin Cindric: There isn’t something significantly improper with how the Penske No. 2 staff is performing proper now however that is the spherical the place getting stage factors each time and each race, whereas additionally difficult for top-5s is vital if you begin beneath the cutline. The season-long physique of labor simply isn’t there proper now to recommend they’re, however Cindric can also be a Penske automotive — surviving this spherical could also be a protracted shot.
Ross Chastain, Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet
Photograph by: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Photographs
Ross Chastain: Much like Cindric, the season lengthy physique of labor isn’t there, however you additionally type of anticipate a win out of nowhere within the playoffs yearly. It could be fortuitous for the Trackhouse Racing No. 1 staff if it comes whereas they’re nonetheless championship eligible. It is a staff has discovered sufficient to advance to the ultimate 4 earlier than, so that you by no means low cost expertise, however that is simply the knife to a gunfight stage of the playoffs.
Tyler Reddick: The Southern 500 was a much-needed enhance for the 23XI Racing No. 45 staff however they’re nonetheless not acting at their 2024 ranges and they’re beginning this spherical on the very backside of the pylon. On one hand, Toyota is exhibiting essentially the most velocity proper now however however, Reddick and Billy Scott simply aren’t capitalizing on it frequently. Their first spherical efficiency received’t be sufficient this time round.
Nick DeGroot’s Spherical of 12 eliminations
Tyler Reddick, 23XI Racing Toyota
Photograph by: Sean Gardner / Getty Photographs
Tyler Reddick: Reddick is a wierd case. He received the common season title in 2024, and made all of it the way in which to the Championship 4, however he’s now the one winless driver left within the 2025 title combat. Exterior of a stellar exhibiting within the Southern 500, the No. 45 has been far off from the place he was only one yr in the past. If not for that exhibiting at Darlington, the Spherical of 16 might have been the tip of his playoff run. Whereas his teammate continues to impress, Reddick hasn’t proven us a lot by way of velocity.
Austin Cindric: Most believed Cindric could be a first-round exit, so it already appears like he’s on borrowed time right here. If he can show us improper but once more and transfer on into the Spherical of 8, that will be unbelievable, however the details simply do not help it occurring. He has 5 high tens this yr, and a median end of twentieth simply is not going to chop it on this spherical.
Joey Logano, Staff Penske Ford
Photograph by: Jonathan Bachman – Getty Photographs
Joey Logano: It isn’t an even-numbered yr, so Logano merely cannot win the title if you happen to imagine in popular culture numerology. However in all seriousness, this will probably be a tough spherical for the three-time champion. Logano will not be an excellent street course racer, so the Roval will probably be a problem. In actual fact, he was eradicated on this spherical one yr in the past — earlier than a post-race disqualification resurrected his title run. Logano is superb at getting rather a lot out of his tools and he needs to be respectable sufficient at NHMS and Kansas, however he begins out beneath the cutline. Logano must acquire floor on some very quick automobiles simply forward of him, and whereas I do not anticipate him to go down with out a combat, it will probably be it for the No. 22 this yr.
Kyle Larson: Now, this could be a shocker, however Hendrick Motorsports simply have not been themselves to this point within the playoffs. They already misplaced Alex Bowman, and I imagine they are going to lose one other driver on this spherical. He has a 24-point buffer to play with, however Larson completed nineteenth, twelfth, and thirty second within the first spherical, and he hasn’t received a race since Might. As we noticed at Bristol, Larson has additionally been making some unforced errors in latest months, and one other wreck might simply finish his playoffs.
Who will barely advance?
Matt says Joey Logano: That is simply what he does. Positive, that is an odd-numbered season so his last 4 years solely come on even-numbered campaigns however that’s not professional statistical evaluation. Till Logano and crew chief Paul Wolfe discover race profitable velocity once more, which may very well be any week now as a result of there’s a physique of labor to recommend they are going to, Logano will do what’s requested of him to maintain the struggle going even on the expense of a weekly battle. It is perhaps all the way down to a few factors on the Roval however the Penske 22 will proceed to attract the ire of followers who will as soon as once more decry his lack of championship caliber statistics.
Nick says Ross Chastain: All the details level to the Spherical of 12 being the tip of Chastain’s playoff journey, however the one factor stopping me from selecting him is the tracks that make up this spherical. He received at Kansas one yr in the past, and people sorts of 1.5-mile tracks are the place Chastain shines. There’s additionally a street course on this spherical, and his teammate is none aside from Shane van Gisbergen. That is going to be invaluable, however Chastain himself has certified inside the highest 5 for 3 of the final 4 street programs, which might set him up properly to attain a number of stage factors on the Roval. His weakest monitor will probably be NHMS, and but, he scored a high ten there final yr — and let’s not neglect, Chastain is one in every of simply three drivers who acquired to participate on this summer time’s tire take a look at on the Magic Mile.
