The ultimate week of the MLB season has arrived! Let’s attempt to finish the common season on a successful word!
Season Report: 14-12-2, +2.18 Models
Mets at Cubs
Mets ML (+105 ESPN BET)
I’m most likely trying by Blue and Orange-colored glasses right here, however hear me out. The Mets have utterly dropped the ball in 2025 — actually and figuratively. They each forgot how one can play the sector and may’t keep away from at the very least one catastrophic breakdown in each recreation.
When final seen on Sunday, they made a pair essential errors however nonetheless solely allowed three runs, whereas pushing throughout simply two towards a Nats piggyback combo of Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker. How disappointing is that?
Of 54 certified starters in 2025, the Mets have two of the worst ERAs.
They are going to roll out the slumping David Peterson, who has a 7.89 ERA and 1.66 WHIP relationship again to August 6. The Cubs counter with rookie ace Cade Horton, who’s been terrific all yr, particularly at dwelling. He’s gone 8-1 for the reason that All-Star break, with a 0.93 ERA and 0.79 WHIP.
So why take the Mets? The chasm between the pitchers reduces if you dig deeper. Peterson is a floor ball pitcher on a run of tremendous unhealthy luck. He has a 2.6 LA and 55% GB%, however all the pieces is discovering a gap — he’s yielded a .371 BABIP and his SIERA is 4.05. In the meantime, Horton on his scorching run has a .195 BABIP towards and has yielded simply two homers on 10 barrels. He’s a fly ball pitcher, and simply 2.9% of them have left the yard vs. Peterson’s 13.5%. Horton’s SIERA is 3.93 on this run.
Additionally, the Cubs offense has seemed meh within the second half of the season. Because the All-Star break, they’ve a .703 OPS and 98 wRC+ vs. .786 and 121 for the Mets. They scored simply seven runs in 4 video games in Cincinnati. The Cubs are a digital lock to land the second Wild Card and are basically not enjoying for something. I’ll take a shot on the Mets not stepping on rakes for a change.
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Astros at Athletics
F5 Over 5.5 Runs (-102 FanDuel)
Houston is preventing for his or her playoff lives after getting swept at dwelling by the Mariners. The A’s are…effectively, form of preventing the urge to get the golf golf equipment.
I don’t actually belief the Astros and tonight’s SP Cristian Javier — 4.45 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and a harmful 22.4 LA within the Sutter Park launching pad. I’m not loopy about his reverse quantity both. Jeffrey Springs has a 5.00 ERA and 1.29 WHIP at dwelling.
The righty-heavy Astros are one of many higher groups in MLB with a 106 wRC+, which ranks eighth within the league. A’s F5 Dwelling Overs have gone 46-25 with a league-best 19.5% ROI this season, in keeping with VSiN.com — that’s the place I’m enjoying this one.
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