Week 12 of the 2025 NFL season is underway after the Texans defeated the Payments 23-19 on Thursday night time. To prepare for the remainder of the motion, our NFL analysts have you ever coated on last-minute prep.
First, analytics author Seth Walder breaks down three stat developments that could possibly be pivotal this weekend. Then fantasy author Eric Moody runs by way of 5 gamers who’re rostered in beneath 50% of ESPN leagues as of Saturday and could possibly be began in a jam. That is adopted by NFL analyst Ben Solak’s two potential surprises, NFL analyst Matt Bowen’s key matchup to observe and sports activities betting analyst Pamela Maldonado’s favourite wager for Week 11. We additionally requested our NFL Nation reporters to reply questions on attention-grabbing QB conditions across the league.
Will the Raiders spoil Browns quarterback Shedeur Sanders’ first NFL begin? Does Cardinals huge receiver Michael Wilson have fantasy upside after an enormous Week 11? And what did Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold be taught from final week’s loss to the Rams?
We dig into all that, beginning with an thrilling showdown within the early slate.
Bounce to:
Stat developments | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Key matchup
Guess of the week | QB questions
Walder: Three key stat developments that would decide Week 12 winners
Can the Chiefs cease the Colts’ play-action assault?
Play-action is on the core of the Colts’ offense; they apply it to 33% of dropbacks, second most within the NFL. And it could be a very potent lever in Week 12, as a result of the Chiefs — whereas usually a stable protection that ranks thirteenth in EPA allowed per dropback — have struggled mightily towards play-action. They rank useless final in EPA allowed per play-action play (0.38) and have allowed a 62% success fee towards play-action, second worst amongst all defenses.
Will the Raiders be capable to disrupt Browns quarterback Shedeur Sanders?
Normally, the Raiders’ go rush will not be overly threatening. Edge rusher Maxx Crosby is a hazard to any offense, however Las Vegas ranks fifteenth in go rush win fee (38.0%), twenty sixth in stress fee (27.7%) and twenty sixth in sack fee (5.2%). However towards Sanders in his first NFL begin, they may not must be that nice to make an affect.
Sanders’ 2024 numbers at Colorado on this realm are fairly wild: He was beneath stress 39.2% of the time (seventeenth highest out of 129 qualifiers within the FBS) and took sacks on 7.5% of dropbacks (twenty fifth highest). However that each one occurred whereas being blitzed simply 17.9% of the time (third lowest) and with a primary stress occurring after a mean of three.1 seconds (fourth lowest).
In different phrases, he was creating his personal stress. And towards NFL defenses, he cannot do this. That might be examined in Las Vegas.
Will the Cowboys be capable to throw deep on the Eagles?
Thirty-one % of the Cowboys’ routes this season have been verticals — the best fee within the league. It has been a key a part of their profitable passing assault, because the staff is averaging 0.66 EPA when focusing on vertical routes. (Filtering on downfield throws will usually produce extra excessive EPA outcomes since often rather a lot has gone proper if a downfield goal is happening, however that is nonetheless a excessive quantity.)
Sadly for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys, their energy won’t be supreme towards the Eagles. Philly permits a league-low EPA per play when opponents goal a vertical route on them (0.04).
Moody: 5 fantasy sleepers you’ll want to decide up — and might begin this week
Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans (36.2% rostered)
Spears continues to work in a committee with Tony Pollard, however his rising function within the passing sport is encouraging. He has logged not less than three receptions and averaged 10.1 fantasy factors prior to now 5 video games. That offers him a dependable flooring, and he may see much more work this week due to Tennessee’s accidents at huge receiver. The Seahawks additionally permit the fourth-most receptions and fifth-most receiving yards per sport to working backs.
Michael Wilson, WR, Arizona Cardinals (32.4% rostered)
Wilson is a robust Week 12 begin with Marvin Harrison Jr. already dominated out due to an appendectomy. Wilson is coming off a profession day of 15 receptions for 185 yards on a 31.6% goal share towards the 49ers, clearly working as Arizona’s No. 1 receiver.
Whereas he will not see that form of quantity each week, Wilson ought to keep closely concerned towards the Jaguars. The matchup additionally works in his favor, as Jacksonville has allowed probably the most fantasy factors per sport to perimeter huge receivers since Week 6, which is the place Wilson traces up.
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Ought to fantasy managers begin Michael Wilson in Week 12?
Tristan H. Cockcroft breaks down Michael Wilson’s fantasy manufacturing in Week 11 for the Cardinals.
AJ Barner, TE, Seattle Seahawks (13.3% rostered)
Barner noticed a career-high 11 targets towards the Rams in Week 11, ending with 17.1 fantasy factors. He has clearly emerged as Seattle’s No. 2 possibility behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The staff additionally makes use of him on its model of the “tush push,” giving him uncommon goal-line upside for a good finish. Barner has scored not less than 11 fantasy factors in two of his previous three video games, and he is in an amazing spot towards the Titans.
Bryce Younger, QB, Carolina Panthers (10.8% rostered)
Younger hasn’t been a dependable starter this season, however he is coming off a season-high 31.8 fantasy factors towards the Falcons and at last appears in sync with No. 1 receiver Tetairoa McMillan. In the meantime, the 49ers’ protection has been decimated by accidents and is giving up the fifth-most passing yards per sport. San Francisco additionally allowed 21.8 fantasy factors to the Cardinals’ Jacoby Brissett in Week 11, though Wilson and Greg Dortch have been his solely significant huge receiver choices.
Andrei Iosivas, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (5.6% rostered)
Extensive receiver Ja’Marr Chase’s suspension opens the door for Iosivas to get extra targets towards the Patriots. He has had three video games this season with greater than 4 targets, and he has scored not less than 13 fantasy factors in two of them.
Iosivas additionally averages 13.5 yards per reception, so even restricted quantity can flip into significant fantasy manufacturing. The Patriots might be lacking key defensive gamers, and their protection permits the second-most touchdowns per sport to huge receivers. With Tee Higgins drawing the majority of defensive consideration, Iosivas is positioned to see extra favorable protection.
Solak: Do not be shocked if …
The Cardinals upset the Jaguars
Arizona’s previous two video games have been embarrassing: 44 and 41 factors apiece surrendered to divisional opponents. However early first-quarter deficits have thrown their video games off script, and I nonetheless imagine on this Brissett-led offense towards a Jaguars protection that wants turnovers to achieve success. Arizona is 3-7, however that teaching employees is combating for his or her jobs. I count on a determined house efficiency.
The Browns win … by working the ball towards the Raiders
Everybody is happy to see Sanders, however the Browns’ path to offensive victory depends on an under-center, bodily working sport. Las Vegas’ protection has holes in all places (in addition to edge rusher Maxx Crosby), and Cleveland’s working sport has improved with the emergence of rookie working again Quinshon Judkins. Sanders’ finest performs this week could be handoffs.
Bowen: Key matchup to observe
Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts vs. Cowboys defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus
The Eagles must get their go sport off the bottom, they usually have a blueprint to check with the Dallas protection. Within the Week 1 matchup between each groups, Eberflus’ unit performed zone protection on a whopping 87.9% of Hurts’ dropbacks. And the Cowboys performed with zone self-discipline, too, attending to depth and squeezing throwing home windows.
Nonetheless, the Eagles ought to have solutions for Hurts this week. They’ll create open throwing voids for the quarterback, whereas additionally placing him in place to chop it free on middle-of-the-field ideas.
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Orlovsky: What is going on on with Jalen Hurts is ‘so disrespectful’
Dan Orlovsky explains why the Eagles’ reported locker room frustration directed towards Jalen Hurts is “disrespectful.”
Maldonado: My favourite wager for Week 12
Indianapolis Colts +3.5 at Kansas Metropolis Chiefs
Indy is constructed to emphasize each one of many Chiefs’ weaknesses. The Colts like to run the ball, hit explosive performs by way of play-action and dictate early-down effectivity in a method that ought to maintain this inside a subject purpose. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes nonetheless makes the Chiefs a troublesome beat, however this model of the staff hasn’t created huge margins.
With the Colts’ EPA profile, their improved man protection with cornerback Sauce Gardner and their capability to attain on sustained drives, +3.5 is the appropriate facet.
NFL Nation: QB questions
What did the Seahawks be taught from Sam Darnold’s four-interception efficiency towards the Rams?
Darnold pointed to 2 points: He wanted to acknowledge the Rams’ shell protection higher, and he wanted to maneuver on in his progressions versus locking onto one or two targets. On his second interception, as an illustration, cornerback Cobie Durant jumped Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s out route as a result of Darnold’s eyes by no means left his No. 1 receiver. Darnold’s fourth interception was on an prolonged play. As coach Mike Macdonald identified, these off-platform performs have yielded a few of his finest moments.
“You do not wish to take the playmaker out of him,” Macdonald stated, “however you additionally perceive after we want to have the ability to get to the following play versus placing the ball in jeopardy down the sphere.” — Brady Henderson, Seahawks reporter
What ought to we count on to see from Shedeur Sanders this week with time to work with the primary staff?
One of many major benefits of every week of follow reps is working by way of a sport plan tailor-made to maximise Sanders’ strengths and decrease his weaknesses. Meaning utilizing ideas that spotlight his downfield accuracy but in addition discovering solutions to the blitzes that he struggled with towards the Ravens. With Maxx Crosby dashing, count on the Browns to maneuver the pocket a bit and permit Sanders to get the ball out of his arms in rhythm. — Daniel Oyefusi, Browns reporter
What enhancements are the Saints anticipating to see from Tyler Shough after the bye week?
Shough started establishing chemistry with each Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson within the Panthers sport previous to the bye week, and he was capable of open up the downfield passing sport and make performs along with his toes. Shough stated he is turning into extra comfy as a pacesetter with every week. The expectation is that Shough will proceed to take steps ahead in his first house begin, particularly now that he has the boldness coming off the 17-7 win towards the Panthers. — Katherine Terrell, Saints reporter
What would be the largest distinction within the Falcons’ sport plan with Kirk Cousins?
Count on extra throws to working backs Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier and extra targets for tight finish Kyle Pitts Sr., particularly with huge receiver Drake London out. Michael Penix Jr. likes to air issues out, particularly outdoors the numbers. Cousins is extra more likely to assault the center of the sphere with intermediate routes. The Falcons in all probability will play much less pistol. Atlanta has aligned from the pistol on a league-high 48.8% of snaps, greater than double that of every other staff this season. — Marc Raimondi, Falcons reporter
