Week 13 of the 2025 NFL season is underway after an thrilling 4 matchups on Thanksgiving and Black Friday — all upsets. For the 12 remaining video games on the slate, we have you coated with what you want to know.
First, analytics author Seth Walder breaks down three stat tendencies that might be pivotal this weekend. Then fantasy author Eric Moody runs by means of 5 gamers who’re rostered in below 50% of ESPN leagues as of Saturday and might be began in a jam. That is adopted by NFL analyst Ben Solak’s three potential surprises, NFL analyst Matt Bowen’s key matchup to look at and sports activities betting analyst Pamela Maldonado’s favourite wager for Week 13. We additionally requested our NFL Nation reporters to reply questions on attention-grabbing QB conditions across the league.
Can the Steelers keep on with their display screen sport towards the Payments? Is there fantasy upside for the Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence? May the Titans and Browns each pull off upsets? Will offense be restricted within the Texans-Colts matchup? And are the 49ers involved about quarterback Brock Purdy? We dig into all of it.
Bounce to:
Stat tendencies | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Key matchup
Guess of the week | QB questions
Walder: Three key stat tendencies that would decide Week 13 winners
How a lot of the hole between the Giants and Patriots is pushed by their schedules?
The Giants (2-10) and Patriots (10-2) aren’t even in the identical stratosphere within the standings. And the superior numbers are keen on the Patriots, who’ve the No. 1 passing offense when it comes to EPA per dropback. However ESPN’s Soccer Energy Index nonetheless believes there is a a lot smaller hole between these two groups enjoying Monday due to energy of schedule.
No workforce has performed a neater schedule than the Patriots … and no workforce has performed a tougher schedule than the Giants. And on the snaps with rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart on the sector, the workforce’s EPA per play is 0.07, roughly tied with the Seahawks as Tenth-most environment friendly.
Can the Payments cease the Steelers’ display screen sport?
The Steelers love a display screen, operating them on the second-highest fee within the league (6%). And it has been an environment friendly a part of their offense, with the workforce averaging 0.10 EPA per display screen — higher than their common EPA per dropback.
On a per-play foundation, no protection has been higher at stopping display screen performs than Buffalo. Its opponents are averaging minus-0.52 EPA per display screen play and a 21% success fee on them, each the bottom charges towards any protection. Granted, the pattern towards the Payments is tiny (19 performs), however it may trigger Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith to not lean on considered one of his favourite levers Sunday.
Will 49ers left deal with Trent Williams have the ability to cease Browns edge rusher Myles Garrett?
We’re getting a Corridor of Fame matchup within the trenches Sunday. Who has the sting? At every of their peaks, it may need been powerful to say. However proper now, Garrett is the clear reply.
The Cleveland edge rusher is properly on his technique to profitable Defensive Participant of the Yr, and he’s threatening the single-season sack report (22.5) with 18.0 already. In the meantime, Williams’ cross safety numbers have slipped a bit of bit this season. After ending first amongst tackles in cross block win fee in 2023 and second in 2024, his 2025 PBWR ranks twentieth. The Browns will want Garrett to have success towards Williams for an opportunity at upsetting the 49ers.
Moody: 5 fantasy sleepers you want to decide up — and might begin this week
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars (30.2% rostered)
Lawrence has supplied regular low-end QB1 manufacturing since Week 1, averaging 18.0 fantasy factors per sport. He hasn’t hit 300 passing yards but this season, however that would change towards a Titans protection that ranks in the course of the pack in fantasy factors allowed to quarterbacks. Lawrence is in a good spot right here for managers who want QB.
Jayden Higgins, WR, Houston Texans (28.4% rostered)
Higgins has quietly change into a reliable fantasy choice, rising as Houston’s clear No. 2 receiver with a minimum of seven targets in 4 of his previous 5 video games. He scored three touchdowns throughout that stretch and has averaged 12.8 fantasy factors since Week 10. Now Higgins will get beginning quarterback C.J. Stroud again towards a Colts protection that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy factors per sport to extensive receivers.
Devin Neal, RB, New Orleans Saints (27.6% rostered)
Neal is positioned to take over the Saints’ backfield after operating again Alvin Kamara injured his knee in Week 12. Neal noticed a season-high 12 touches towards the Falcons and has elevated his scrimmage yards in 5 straight video games. New Orleans is probably going to offer the rookie a full workload to see what it has, and he attracts a Dolphins protection that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy factors per sport to operating backs this season.
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Is Devin Neal a precedence fantasy add for Week 13?
Daniel Dopp explains why Devin Neal is just not a precedence for fantasy rosters however continues to be a superb backup RB in Week 13.
Chimere Dike, WR, Tennessee Titans (16.0% rostered)
Dike has emerged as Tennessee’s high receiving choice with Calvin Ridley out for the season and Elic Ayomanor battling a hamstring harm. He led the workforce with seven targets in Week 12, turning them into 21.4 fantasy factors (thanks partially to a punt return landing). Dike has had a minimum of 16 fantasy factors in three of his previous 5 video games regardless of the Titans’ struggling passing sport. With sturdy goal quantity and added particular groups upside, he is a viable flex towards Jacksonville, particularly in deeper codecs.
Brenton Unusual, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars (15.6% rostered)
Unusual returned from a monthlong hip harm in Week 12 and instantly reclaimed his position because the Jaguars’ high cross catcher, main Jacksonville with 93 yards towards the Cardinals. He has had a minimum of 59 yards in three of his six video games this season, and he’s vital to the Jaguars’ offense as a powerful blocker. Unusual is a low-end TE1 towards the Titans.
Solak: Do not be stunned if …
The Titans upset the Jaguars
Rookie quarterback Cam Ward has performed the 2 finest video games of his profession prior to now two weeks. And so they got here towards stiff competitors within the Texans and Seahawks. Now, he will get a Jaguars protection that may get strain however struggles to truly sack cellular quarterbacks like him.
As long as Ward avoids turnovers, the Titans’ offense ought to discover factors. On the opposite facet of the ball, the defensive deal with duo of Jeffery Simmons and T’Vondre Sweat ought to decelerate the Jaguars’ operating sport and drive the ball into Lawrence’s palms.
The Browns upset the 49ers
On a wet and windy day in Cleveland, the elite Browns protection can be favored. This sport would possibly come right down to who runs the soccer higher, and whereas San Francisco operating again Christian McCaffrey is getting handoffs at an elite clip, he is not breaking tackles or producing explosive runs like he as soon as did. In sloppy situations, Brock Purdy may additionally be vulnerable to a turnover or two. This sport can be determined by discipline place and particular groups, with one huge play late.
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers’ offense look elite once more
Defensively, the Payments are constructed to make you dink and dunk the soccer towards their delicate zone coverages — however that is the popular play fashion for Rodgers, who is ready to return from a left wrist fracture. The Payments even have tackling points, and each Steelers cross catcher is a tackle-breaking menace. And eventually, Pittsburgh can run the ball with heavy personnel, which has been Buffalo’s kryptonite for years. Josh Allen had higher rating factors, as a result of Rodgers’ Steelers certain will.
Bowen: Key matchup to look at
Texans defensive finish Will Anderson Jr. vs. Colts offensive deal with Braden Smith
Search for Texans coach DeMeco Ryans to scheme his fronts, creating one-on-one pass-rush matchups for Anderson on this key AFC South matchup. Anderson was relentless within the Texans’ Week 12 win over the Payments, recording 2.5 sacks and 5 pressures on Allen. That introduced Anderson’s season totals to 10.5 sacks and 36 pressures, whereas his cross rush win fee sits at 24% (third highest within the NFL).
Smith has allowed six sacks this season, and his cross block win fee of 90.2% ranks thirty third amongst offensive tackles. Smith can be essential in maintaining the pocket clear for quarterback Daniel Jones, as his off-target fee climbs to 25% when pressured.
Maldonado: My favourite wager for Week 13
UNDER 44.5 factors in Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Indy’s offense has a ground, and that retains this sport sluggish. Jones has trended right into a play-action dependent passer, whereas the Texans’ protection is constructed to kill that. It’s third in completion fee allowed, second in yards allowed per cross try and second in opponent landing fee.
Stroud is again for Houston’s offense, however Indy’s cross protection has improved with cornerback Sauce Gardner and the return of Charvarius Ward. Each defenses will squeeze on early downs whereas the offenses stall within the crimson zone, making this a transparent below.
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Ought to fantasy managers be frightened about Jonathan Taylor?
Discipline Yates and Mike Clay focus on their degree of fantasy fear for Jonathan Taylor.
NFL Nation: QB questions
What is the newest on C.J. Stroud’s return, and the way have the Texans seemed with out him?
Stroud will return towards the Colts on Sunday. It is going to be his first begin in three video games, so anticipate some rust in a serious matchup with divisional implications. Fortuitously for the Texans, they went 3-0 within the video games Stroud missed, which stored them in playoff rivalry. Credit score goes to their protection, which averaged 12.5 factors towards prior to now two video games. And do not forget two game-winning drives by quarterback Davis Mills within the three-game stretch. — D.J. Bien-Aime, Texans reporter
Are the 49ers involved about Brock Purdy’s two begins again from harm?
The brief reply: Not likely. The Niners and Purdy have been happy with how he fared towards Arizona in his return, and although he threw three first-half interceptions towards Carolina, coach Kyle Shanahan stated he was nice with the selections and Purdy was only a bit late on the throws. For his half, Purdy stated he wasn’t “driving” the ball in addition to he may. This week, he expounded on it after watching the movie, noting that he must set his toes higher and throw with extra anticipation as a way to remove a few of these pricey turnovers.
“It is simply reps and enjoying soccer once more and getting again into it,” Purdy stated. “However there’s additionally some good performs that I’ve made too. I am unable to simply say as a result of I threw three picks in a single half my timing and all the things’s off. It is give or take with all that.” — Nick Wagoner, 49ers reporter
May the Raiders have a look at different choices below heart for the ultimate stretch?
Coach Pete Carroll did one thing uncharacteristic when he parted methods with two coordinators (Chip Kelly and Tom McMahon) within the span of 16 days. So at this stage of the season, it would not be stunning if the Raiders have a look at different choices at quarterback if Geno Smith continues to pile up the interceptions.
For now, Smith’s job is protected. It is value seeing how Smith and the offense look below interim playcaller Greg Olson. Maybe the transfer may get the 35-year-old quarterback on monitor through the remaining six video games. Both method, the Raiders might want to take a severe have a look at the place within the offseason. Smith has regressed, and Las Vegas might be ready to pick one of many high quarterback prospects within the 2026 NFL draft. — Ryan McFadden, Raiders reporter
