The 2025 season feels just like the supreme instance of NFL parity. We’re by some means sitting right here in Week 13 with two groups hitting double digits within the win column: the 10-2 Broncos, who held on for pricey life to beat the Commanders on Sunday evening, and the 10-2 Patriots, who play on “Monday Evening Soccer” in opposition to the Giants. There are unhealthy groups as a result of there are at all times unhealthy groups, after all, however this has been a 12 months the place we will poke a gap in any franchise with Tremendous Bowl aspirations.
The upside in a league with out many nice groups is that there are numerous fairly good groups competing for division titles. This time final season, it felt like three divisions within the AFC and one within the NFC had already been determined, and there have been solely seven groups within the AFC with a profitable file, all of whom would finally make the playoffs.
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This season? It appears like each division may nonetheless be up for grabs. The largest divisional lead with 5 weeks to go is 2 video games (Broncos within the AFC West and Patriots within the AFC East). Groups such because the Chiefs and Lions — unquestioned Tremendous Bowl contenders earlier than the season — are on the surface trying in for the postseason. There’s nonetheless a lot to be determined as we hit December, and that is going to make for some thrilling playoff races down the stretch.
Let’s check out the closest of these races and the way Week 13 impacted what’s to come back. I am going to hit the 2 closest races in each the NFC and the AFC. And I am going to begin within the NFC West, the place a group that appeared set to drag away from the pack fell proper again right into a three-team struggle for each the division title and a possible first-round bye. (I included probabilities to win the division for every group by way of ESPN’s Soccer Energy Index, or FPI.)
Bounce to:
NFC West | NFC South
AFC South | AFC North
NFC West
Week 13: Misplaced 31-28 to the Panthers
FPI probabilities to win the division: 47.7%
The Rams have been alleged to be the group you would belief. In a league the place it felt like every group was able to dropping to anybody else on any given Sunday, the Rams have been essentially the most dependable. Their two losses had come to the Eagles and 49ers, and people video games required last-second heroics from two groups more likely to be within the playoffs themselves. Matthew Stafford had instantly determined at age 37 to begin experimenting with perfection, and after final week’s blowout win over the Bucs in prime time, the veteran made himself the betting favourite to win his first MVP award.
Issues gave the impression to be going to plan early on Sunday. Stafford took over on a brief subject and threw what felt like his forty seventh landing move of the season to Davante Adams, and whereas that is a slight exaggeration, the rating did give Stafford the file for many consecutive landing passes with out throwing an interception, as his mark of 28 topped Tom Brady’s file of 27. The Panthers responded with a landing, however because the Rams marched contained in the pink zone, Stafford and this offense have been inevitably going to race Carolina right into a shootout that the Panthers could not presumably maintain.
After which actuality struck. Stafford had a move tipped and intercepted, ending his streak. It was unhealthy luck, however on the subsequent drive, he left an out too far inside and Mike Jackson returned it for a pick-six, giving the Panthers a 14-7 lead. The Rams scored once more and took a 21-17 halftime lead, however essentially the most essential mistake got here later within the recreation. With the Rams in vary for a game-tying subject objective, Carolina’s expensively assembled defensive sort out duo rose up. Tershawn Wharton beat Rams guard Kevin Dotson to create stress, and Derrick Brown cleaned up from behind, strip-sacking Stafford for the third Panthers takeaway of the day. After the Rams used their timeouts, Bryce Younger transformed a 3rd down to finish the sport, giving the Panthers a 31-28 victory.
It is easy, in some methods, to rationalize the loss as a fluke. Stafford threw as many interceptions on Sunday as he had all season. The Panthers went 3-for-3 on fourth downs, turning two of them into lengthy landing passes. These issues aren’t going to occur each week, and when the Rams do not shoot themselves within the foot, they’ll be the higher group.
That could be true, however this recreation additionally spoke to the realities the Rams should face as they set their sights on one other Tremendous Bowl. Although Stafford has performed very properly this season, there have actually been dropped interceptions and different near-picks serving to to keep up that streak alongside the best way. He throws into tight home windows on the sixth-highest charge within the league, typically (fairly famously) while not having to even look the place the ball’s going.
That is a testomony to his expertise and willingness to belief his receivers and match passes into impossibly tight areas, nevertheless it’s additionally virtually inconceivable to do this with out creating turnovers. Stafford’s 1.5% interception charge in 2024 was the most effective full-season mark of his profession, and he was down at 0.5% in 2025 earlier than Sunday. Throughout that run to the Tremendous Bowl in his debut season with the Rams, Stafford really led the league with 17 interceptions, working a 2.8% interception charge. He threw two extra within the Tremendous Bowl itself. It is unrealistic to anticipate him to go months between picks.
The weak point within the Rams’ protection, in the meantime, has at all times been at cornerback. The move rush has finished an important job of protecting up these points, and coordinator Chris Shula does an important job disguising coverages and muddying up the image for opposing quarterbacks. However the losses the Rams have had usually contain groups attacking their CBs and creating large performs.
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Panthers pressure and recuperate late key fumble in win over Rams
Matthew Stafford is sacked, fumbles the ball and D.J. Wonnum recovers for the Panthers late within the fourth quarter.
Sunday was a tough day for Emmanuel Forbes Jr., who has performed rather well since being quasi-benched in opposition to the 49ers in Week 5. Forbes did not play terribly or make terrible psychological errors, however he was going through an even bigger, extra bodily group of Panthers receivers. And Carolina’s large performs on fourth down got here in opposition to the 173-pound Forbes.
First, on a fourth-and-3 within the third quarter, Jalen Coker beat Forbes off the road, stacked the nook and caught a 33-yard landing move from Younger. Then, on a fourth-and-2 with the Rams taking part in in what appeared to be a type of Cowl 3, rookie Tetairoa McMillan was in a position to disengage from Forbes with the ball within the air, separate and run away from the nook on a crossing route for a 43-yard landing.
With the sport on the road, Younger was in a position to seal issues up by hitting Coker rapidly for a 10-yard completion over the center of the sector, with no Rams defender fast sufficient to remove his throwing lane. Younger was 9-of-11 for 122 yards, with two landing passes and no picks on throws inside 2.5 seconds of taking the snap Sunday. When quarterbacks eliminate the ball inside 2.5 seconds in opposition to the Rams and work rapidly, opponent QBR is simply fifteenth within the league. That determine jumps to fourth finest for the Rams once they can get quarterbacks to carry the ball and provides the move rush sufficient time to get dwelling.
Los Angeles continues to be in first place by advantage of a tiebreaking win over the Seahawks, however issues might get messier within the weeks to come back. The Rams nonetheless have a home-and-home to come back with the Cardinals, however their subsequent recreation in opposition to the Seahawks is in Seattle. The 49ers cut up with the Rams, however at 4-1, they’re more likely to end with the most effective intradivision file of the three contenders. And within the race for the highest seed, the Rams are solely 4-3 within the NFC, properly behind the likes of the Bears (6-2 throughout the convention), Eagles (7-3) and 49ers (8-2).
The Rams in all probability want to complete with the most effective file within the convention outright to make sure a first-round bye and home-field benefit all through the postseason — a spot they ceded to the Bears after Sunday’s loss.
Week 13: Received 26-0 over the Vikings
FPI probabilities to win the division: 25.1%
Sunday’s win doubtless advised us extra about debuting quarterback Max Brosmer and the Vikings than it did in regards to the Seahawks, who merely took benefit of a participant who was not certified to be on the sector. Seattle scored one landing on offense, and that got here on a 32-yard drive after one in all Minnesota’s 5 turnovers on the day. Jaxon Smith-Njigba basically took the time off, because the star receiver managed simply two catches for twenty-four yards, and it didn’t even remotely matter.
We already knew the Seahawks’ protection was nice, and Brosmer’s ineffectiveness clearly performed an enormous issue, however this can go down as the most effective video games by any protection all season. The Vikings averaged minus-0.79 EPA per play on offense, which is the third-worst mark of the season by any offense in any recreation. My benchmark for a hopeless offense goes again to 2020, when the Broncos misplaced all of their quarterbacks to COVID-19 rules and began vast receiver Kendall Hinton beneath middle in opposition to an important Saints group. On that day, the Broncos averaged minus-0.80 EPA per play.
The issue for the Seahawks, particularly after the previous few weeks, is what occurs when the protection does not spot them a landing and maintain the opposing offense to 162 web yards. Sam Darnold threw 4 interceptions in opposition to the Rams in heart-wrenching style, however even in video games the Seahawks have dominated, he has flirted with catastrophe.
Darnold threw a choose that arrange the game-winning rating in opposition to Tampa Bay. He was strip-sacked for a landing in opposition to the Texans, turned the ball over 3 times in opposition to the Cardinals and fumbled twice in opposition to the Vikings on Sunday, dropping one. It does not assist when the offensive line lets Dallas Turner by way of fully free for a fast stress, however Darnold has to mitigate his errors. Taking a sack is irritating, nevertheless it’s significantly better to take a sack and maintain onto the soccer than it’s to fumble or throw a choose.
The Seattle working recreation additionally struggles to seek out any semblance of consistency. The Seahawks are twenty second within the NFL in success charge and twenty fourth in EPA per play on designed rushes this season, as a backfield led by Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet has struggled for explosiveness. On Sunday, their 27 carries in opposition to the Vikings produced 108 yards and a rating, however the two backs mustered solely a 41% success charge.
It does not seem that the Seahawks employees actually has a deal with on what their finest resolution is at working again. Walker seemed to be on a roll and had the teaching employees suggesting that he deserved extra burn, however on Sunday, Charbonnet had yet another carry than his teammate and the 17-yard landing. Enjoying the new hand is okay if the working recreation is working, however that hasn’t actually been the case for the Seahawks this season, which locations extra stress on Darnold in video games the place the protection is not dominating.
The Seahawks get one other recreation in opposition to a backup quarterback in Kirk Cousins subsequent week, however issues get trickier from there. They end up their dwelling slate with the Colts and that essential rematch in opposition to the Rams earlier than touring to play the Panthers and 49ers to complete up the season. Beating the Rams and Niners is basically a prerequisite if the Seahawks need to win the NFC West, and with 5 video games to go, Seattle controls its personal future within the division.
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Zach Charbonnet punches in a TD for Seahawks
Zach Charbonnet makes use of an excellent block from the O-line and runs within the landing.
Week 13: Received 26-8 over the Browns
FPI probabilities to win the division: 27.2%
Likewise, I am unsure Sunday’s win over a Browns group with a third-string quarterback in Shedeur Sanders advised us a lot about what the 49ers can do in opposition to extra important competitors within the NFC. It appears telling that the most important story popping out of the sport was Jauan Jennings trash-talking, to the astonishment of Browns gamers, whereas an injured Maliek Collins was about to be carted off the sector.
A quiet recreation might need been a welcome respite for Brock Purdy, who threw three interceptions in an unsightly win over the Panthers final Monday. Purdy was 16-of-29 for 168 yards and a landing move in opposition to a superb Browns protection. Whereas he seemed erratic in opposition to the Panthers, Whole QBR has usually favored his work this season, because the fourth-year quarterback’s 68.0 QBR can be sixth finest within the league if he had sufficient move makes an attempt to qualify for the leaderboard. Mac Jones, who hasn’t been fairly as aggressive as his teammate, is down in tenth at 64.8.
Sunday’s recreation in opposition to the Browns was one other one, although, the place the 49ers couldn’t get their run recreation going. Christian McCaffrey turned his 20 carries into simply 53 yards, and whereas the Browns are superb in opposition to the run, this has been a yearlong problem for Kyle Shanahan’s group. The 49ers are fifteenth in success charge on designed rushes. In 2023, when a McCaffrey-led run recreation helped the 49ers to the Tremendous Bowl, they have been third by that measure.
One of many excuses for the run recreation — and different points all through the lineup — has been accidents. McCaffrey has been wholesome, however elite blocking tight finish George Kittle was injured earlier within the season. Purdy’s absence made the passing assault much less vertical. Dominick Puni, a revelation at guard as a rookie, wasn’t the identical within the first half as he performed by way of a knee harm. Possibly the push assault wasn’t going to get proper till the proper gamers have been all on the sector collectively.
Properly, the one starters lacking on Sunday have been wideout Brandon Aiyuk (who may by no means play for the 49ers once more given the group’s emotions towards him) and rookie guard Connor Colby (who struggled when he was within the lineup), and the 49ers nonetheless could not transfer the ball on the bottom. Naturally, the 49ers misplaced guys alongside the best way: Kyle Juszczyk was out and in of the sport with a rib harm, whereas Ben Bartch wasn’t in a position to play within the fourth quarter after struggling a foot harm. However this was the closest they’ve come to a wholesome run recreation, and it did not actually land.
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Brock Purdy fakes out the Browns, runs in a TD himself
Brock Purdy pulls the ball on a faux, and he takes it himself for a landing to increase the 49ers’ lead over the Browns.
Likewise, accidents have sapped what might have been a superb move rush. Nick Bosa has been out since Week 3 with a torn ACL, and since then, the 49ers rank final within the NFL in sack charge (2.9%) and thirty first in stress charge (23.4%). It was one factor to lose Bosa, however the 49ers additionally misplaced Bryce Huff for a stretch with a hamstring harm, whereas first-round rookie Mykel Williams had his season ended by a torn ACL. Yetur Gross-Matos has additionally been on injured reserve since Week 6. And whereas he isn’t primarily a move rusher, the 49ers have naturally felt the lack of star linebacker Fred Warner (ankle).
And but, by some means, the 49ers maintain profitable. Different gamers have stepped up. On Sunday, it was former Raiders first-round choose Clelin Ferrell, who sacked Sanders twice. Their kicking recreation was wonderful with Eddy Pineiro earlier than the journeyman suffered a hamstring harm, however in opposition to the Browns, their particular groups was as a substitute buoyed by a 66-yard punt return from Skyy Moore, which arrange a brief subject and a 49ers landing. The Niners lead the league in win chance added on particular groups this season (1.4 wins), a extra delicate issue that has helped them declare victories.
They’re the clear outsiders on this three-team race due to accidents, however having cut up with the Rams and crushed the Seahawks in Week 1, the Niners are in moderately good condition in the event that they maintain profitable. A much-needed bye awaits them subsequent week, and three of their remaining 4 video games are at dwelling. The Titans should not supply a lot resistance, and a highway journey to play the fading Colts may not be as powerful because it appeared earlier this season. However the Niners end with the NFC-leading Bears and a house rematch with the Seahawks. A win over the Titans and one victory over their remaining three video games ought to get the 49ers again into the postseason. In the event that they need to declare the division and even the highest seed within the convention, properly, they’re going to in all probability have to win out.
NFC South
Week 13: Received 20-17 over the Cardinals
FPI probabilities to win the division: 79.2%
Sunday’s win over the Cardinals ended what had been a irritating three-game dropping streak for Baker Mayfield and Tampa Bay. Since beating the 49ers to go 5-1, the Bucs had misplaced 4 of their ensuing 5 video games, albeit whereas dropping video games in opposition to groups whose mixed information are 34-13. Sunday was a turning level for the Buccaneers. That they had confronted the league’s eighth-toughest schedule by way of Week 12, however they’re additionally projected to play the league’s second-best schedule from Week 13 onward.
The Cardinals are higher than their file, however this wasn’t the form of decisive win to make individuals consider that Tampa’s about to stomp by way of inferior competitors. The Bucs may be their very own worst enemy at occasions, they usually have been at moments on Sunday, together with a drive the place two potential touchdowns have been known as again by penalties. That possession fortunately led to a rating when Mayfield hit star sort out Tristan Wirfs with a landing move, however the Bucs missed out on a landing earlier within the recreation when Chris Godwin Jr. dropped a would-be rating in the long run zone.
Accidents have blighted the ceiling for the Bucs offense all season. Wirfs (knee) was out early within the season, as was fellow sort out Luke Goedeke (foot). Bucky Irving was out for 2 months with foot and shoulder points, whereas Mike Evans (collarbone) has been restricted to simply 177 snaps. Godwin, coming back from his fractured ankle, performed two video games earlier than going again to the inactive listing with a fibula harm and did not make a lot of an affect after returning final week in opposition to the Rams.
As was the case for the 49ers, Sunday was the healthiest the Bucs have been in fairly some time, and the outcomes have been combined. Each tackles have been again for just a few weeks, and whereas Wirfs did not appear fairly like his All-Professional self instantly after returning to the lineup, he has rounded again into type. Irving made his return after lacking important motion, and Godwin was on the sector for significant performs, though he is nonetheless taking part in solely about 63% of the offensive snaps.
It wasn’t an important day for the offense, however the returning gamers made their presence felt. Irving turned 17 carries into solely 61 yards, however the second-year again did rating from 13 yards out and had a second landing known as again by way of penalty. Godwin had his finest recreation of the season, with three catches for 78 yards, although he left a would-be rating on the sector with a drop.
It is troublesome to make sense of the Bucs’ offense, partly as a result of accidents pressure the items to vary so usually. There are weeks the place it seems to be wonderful working the soccer and others the place it may’t maintain the run in any respect. Mayfield will look nice in a two-minute drill and even win a shootout with Darnold in opposition to an important Seahawks protection, after which wrestle to maneuver the ball for total video games. Getting the offensive line set and having wholesome variations of Irving and Godwin within the lineup repeatedly from right here on out would supply the offense some much-needed personnel stability — and with it, maybe extra consistency.
My concern for the Bucs is absolutely on the defensive facet of the ball, although, and it comes with how Todd Bowles performs protection. He is without doubt one of the most artistic blitz designers in soccer, and the Bucs have constructed their roster to play into Bowles’ strategy. Tampa Bay has a deep secondary with gamers who could make an affect across the line of scrimmage, creating believable deniability about who’s going to blitz and who’s going to drop into protection. No person within the league is extra snug dropping a number of defensive linemen into shallow zones and even having them run with receivers than Bowles.
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Bucky Irving scores a TD in his first recreation again from harm
Bucky Irving runs in a 13-yard landing to increase the Buccaneers’ lead on the Cardinals.
However Tampa’s blitzes simply have not been as efficient as typical this season. The Bucs are fifth within the NFL in blitz charge, however they’re sixteenth in QBR allowed on these performs. They’re fifth in stress charge once they ship additional males, however they’re twenty fifth in sack charge and twenty ninth in pressure-to-sack charge with these blitzes. Quarterbacks are averaging 8.3 yards per move try and seven.3 yards per dropback in opposition to Bowles’ blitzes, each of which rank within the backside quarter of the NFL.
With Haason Reddick and Calijah Kancey each out, Bowles has had no alternative however to lean into sending additional stress. (Reddick returned on Sunday after lacking the prior 4 video games.) The secondary behind these blitzes hasn’t been constant. Jacob Parrish has been promising as a rookie, however second-round choose Benjamin Morrison hasn’t impressed, permitting a 127.1 passer score in protection earlier than struggling a hamstring harm. Zyon McCollum has had some stretches, notably in opposition to the Rams two weeks in the past. Tackling angles have been an issue, particularly for linebacker SirVocea Dennis early within the season; he was struggling to even get shut sufficient to overlook sort out makes an attempt.
The Bucs nonetheless really feel like a piece in progress, which is odd for a group that returned so many gamers from the 2024 division champs. The excellent news is that they’re going to be capable to determine that out in opposition to a comparatively straightforward schedule from right here on out, with the Saints and Falcons coming as much as end a three-game homestand. Tampa then sandwiches a highway journey to Miami between a home-and-home with the Panthers, the 2 video games which might be more likely to find yourself deciding the South.
Week 13: Received 31-28 over the Rams
FPI probabilities to win the division: 20.8%
Was Sunday’s win over the Rams the sport that proved the Panthers are for actual? Properly, perhaps, however you would perceive if there have been skeptics across the NFL. A month in the past, the Panthers beat the Packers at Lambeau Area to leap one recreation over .500. They adopted their assertion win by promptly dropping at dwelling to the Saints, needing extra time to beat the Falcons and melting down in opposition to the 49ers on “Monday Evening Soccer.” The Panthers are a juggernaut as soon as a month, which is healthier than by no means being one, nevertheless it’s powerful to belief a group that beats title contenders and loses to one of many worst groups within the league the next week.
What adjustments once they look good? Properly, for one, they run the ball way more successfully. Stats about how groups handle to publish gaudy information once they run the ball a lot of occasions by some means nonetheless pop up across the league, one thing that was disproven all the best way again in 2003 by Soccer Outsiders, however that is not what’s taking place right here. As an alternative, the Panthers are far more environment friendly working the ball on their good days.
Get rid of snaps the place one group has greater than a 90% win expectancy (basically rubbish time) and the Panthers are 14th within the league in success charge on designed runs throughout their victories. That determine drops all the best way to twenty eighth of their losses. Sunday, unsurprisingly, was a greater day for the speeding assault. Carolina’s two backs turned 35 carries into 141 yards, albeit with a 40% success charge.
What was extra notable, maybe, is who was simpler working the soccer. Chuba Hubbard started the season because the starter, however after he acquired damage, Rico Dowdle became Jim Brown, racking up 389 yards over a two-game span. The 2 then cut up carries when Hubbard returned from harm, however with Dowdle outplaying the starter, coach Dave Canales publicly admitted that he wanted to go along with Dowdle because the lead again.
Dowdle hasn’t been as efficient in that position this time, and on Sunday, the job might need tilted again towards Hubbard. Dowdle had 18 carries for 58 yards, however simply three of these 18 carries have been successes that saved the offense on schedule. Hubbard’s 17 carries produced 83 yards, and 11 of them have been successes. Hubbard additionally took a display screen move to the home for a 35-yard landing on a play the place Canales beat an unique stress look from the Rams through the use of movement to get 4 receivers out to 1 facet of the sector, overloading zone protection and making a numbers benefit for Hubbard to take advantage of.
Going through an elite protection with out a number of beginning offensive linemen, Bryce Younger did an admirable job of hanging within the pocket. Canales acquired away from the empty units Younger excelled in final season to attempt to give his O-line extra assist, and Younger merely carved aside the Rams once they dropped into zones, going 13-of-15 for 157 yards and two scores versus zone protection. Going through a Rams group whose shift towards 13 personnel (one again, one vast receiver, three tight ends) has quietly been one of many on-field tales of the 12 months, the Panthers additionally went to 13 personnel 12 occasions on Sunday, producing a 58% success charge on these snaps, virtually all of which have been run performs.
With out suspended security Tre’von Moehrig, there have been actual issues in regards to the Panthers’ capacity to carry up within the secondary, particularly when the Rams did get larger with their personnel groupings. And whereas the defensive tackles acquired dwelling for an enormous strip-sack of Stafford with the sport on the road, Carolina has struggled to get stress all season and continued to on Sunday. Its 13.3% stress charge was the worst of any group in Week 13.
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Panthers go forward in 4th on Younger’s 43-yard TD move to McMillan
Bryce Younger airs out a 43-yard landing move to Tetairoa McMillan to place the Panthers forward within the fourth quarter.
The Panthers’ D survived, as a substitute, by creating large performs. It compelled two interceptions of Stafford and got here away with a strip sack at an important second. With the offense working the ball successfully, the underdog Panthers have been in a position to shorten the sport, limiting Sean McVay’s group to eight significant possessions on the offensive facet of the ball. The Rams averaged greater than 7 yards per play and made six journeys into the pink zone, however when you possibly can flip three of eight drives into giveaways and a kind of three turnovers right into a defensive landing, the splash performs make up for what goes on in any other case.
Is that sustainable? Probably not, though the Bears try to construct a complete protection on that and using it to the highest of the NFC. The Panthers at the moment are 4-1 once they pressure not less than two takeaways, so these turnovers are usually going to be a prerequisite for them to look strong on protection. There are just a few gifted gamers right here between Moehrig, Jaycee Horn and the defensive sort out duo of Tershawn Wharton and Derrick Brown, and a much-maligned run protection from previous years now ranks eighth in success charge this season. However groups do not have hassle throwing on the linebackers and away from Horn in protection.
If the Panthers need to get individuals believing in Younger and Carolina, they’re going to have their probability. They arrive again from a bye with a highway recreation in opposition to the Saints and an opportunity to wipe away the frustration from an unsightly loss earlier this season. From there, the Panthers can have a season-deciding home-and-home with the Bucs and a house recreation in opposition to a motivated, dominant Seahawks protection. It is a a lot harder run-in, which is why the Bucs are deservedly the favorites to win the division. However Sunday was a reminder that the Panthers are able to beating the easiest the NFC has to supply.
AFC South
Week 13: Received 25-3 over the Titans
FPI probabilities to win the division: 39.7%
Again in first place on a tiebreaker, the Jaguars may not have proved a lot by blowing out a hapless Titans group Sunday. It is higher to win by 22 factors than prevail in a nail-biter or lose outright in opposition to inferior competitors, after all, however the Jags did precisely what they have been alleged to do in opposition to one of many league’s worst groups.
What might need been refreshing, although, was getting precisely what we anticipated out of the Jaguars heading right into a recreation. Describing the 2025 Jags as a curler coaster does not actually present the complete image. It has been a sequence of rolling hills with spike strips and oil slicks to maneuver previous and thru on a weekly foundation.
After the Jaguars’ assertion victory over the Chiefs on “Monday Evening Soccer” took them to 4-1, they instantly responded by dropping to the Seahawks and Rams. After coming back from England, Liam Coen’s group has gone 4-1 once more, however that has included a 29-point blowout of the most effective group they’ve confronted (the Chargers), a last-minute comeback to tie the sport and an extra time win over the worst (the Raiders), one other extra time win over the Cardinals and a capitulation from 29-10 up in opposition to the Texans — who scored 26 factors within the fourth quarter to beat their division rivals.
The Jags might be in the course of a five-game profitable streak or making an attempt to avoid wasting face in a 2-3 stretch, which makes them the right group for 2025. Have a look at Jacksonville in the proper second, and it appears unstoppable. Look an hour later, and the Jags may qualify as a hazard to themselves. Simply being regular for 60 minutes on Sunday should have felt blissful to overstimulated Jags followers.
The errors that plagued the Jags earlier this 12 months, even by way of their victories, have not fully disappeared. Among the pre-snap procedural penalties on offense have gone away, however within the win over the Cardinals, different points have been nonetheless costing the Jags dearly. Trevor Lawrence and the offense turned the ball over 4 occasions, with a stress inflicting Lawrence to fumble the ball into Walter Nolen III’s arms for a brief landing. A blown move safety allowed Josh Sweat, Arizona’s finest move rusher, to run fully free at Lawrence for a third-down stress. Cornerback Christian Braswell jumped at a double-move within the remaining minute of the sport and almost allowed a game-shifting landing. And a wide-open Tim Patrick by no means rotated for what might have been a landing catch in extra time. All this in a recreation the Jags gained!
A lot of what can or will occur to the Jags leans on whether or not these issues fade. The Jaguars have been in a position to overcome the procedural points on offense to win early within the season, however that was extra a product of the protection forcing turnovers at an unsustainably excessive charge. The margin for error on offense went away as soon as the takeaways disappeared on protection, and the Jaguars have been overmatched in opposition to higher competitors.
The turnovers have not fairly spiked since, however Anthony Campanile is fielding a really enjoyable protection, even amid accidents within the secondary to the likes of Travis Hunter, Jourdan Lewis and Eric Murray, every of whom have been acquired to begin this offseason. It has been an up-and-down begin to Greg Newsome II’s profession in Jacksonville after the Jags traded for the previous Browns nook at midseason.
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Trevor Lawrence slings it to Jakobi Meyers for a Jags TD
Trevor Lawrence throws brief to Jakobi Meyers for a landing to place the Jaguars forward 7-3 over the Titans.
Campanile is compensating with spectacular, artistic sim pressures and blitz packages, together with a pair that helped win the sport in opposition to the Cardinals in extra time final week. On Sunday, Cam Ward was simply 5-of-8 for twenty-four yards in opposition to Jacksonville’s blitzes and 4-of-10 for 19 yards in opposition to stress.
And whereas the Jags are solely twenty eighth in sack charge, they’re twelfth in stress charge and eleventh in that very same metric once they do not blitz. Josh Hines-Allen has been dominant at occasions this season, together with Sunday in opposition to the Titans when he generated two sacks and 7 pressures. His 60 pressures rank fourth within the league this season per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. He has been bodily overwhelming offensive tackles in current weeks. And whereas Travon Walker’s manufacturing hasn’t been as much as these requirements this season, we all know he has that capacity when wholesome. The Jaguars have the form of entrance that may maintain them in video games in opposition to anybody.
Three of Jacksonville’s 5 remaining video games are in opposition to doubtless playoff groups, together with a home-and-home with the Colts that begins subsequent week. I might argue that they are catching the Colts on the proper time, and sweeping Indy would give the Jags pole place within the race to win the AFC South. Greater than something, although, the Jaguars want to verify they don’t seem to be beating themselves.
Week 13: Misplaced 20-16 to the Texans
FPI probabilities to win the division: 41.0%
Sunday was a sequence of nightmares for the Colts. Along with dropping a essential divisional recreation and falling out of first place within the AFC South, Indy watched star addition Sauce Gardner go down with a calf harm. His standing is presently unclear. Quarterback Daniel Jones performed by way of his fractured fibula and albeit did so admirably in opposition to a brutal Texans entrance, going 14-of-27 for 201 yards and two scores. However he wasn’t in a position to run, and that bit the Colts when Tyler Warren needed to movement beneath middle for a fourth-down quarterback sneak and could not carry within the snap, costing Indy a possession.
I wrote at size about what occurred with the Colts final week of their loss to the Chiefs and will not focus an excessive amount of on them once more this week, nevertheless it has now been a month of one thing lower than a traditionally nice offense. By way of Week 8, the Colts have been averaging 3.5 factors per possession, which was the most effective figures of the previous 25 years. Since then, Indy is all the way down to 2.0 factors per drive, which is sixteenth within the NFL over that span and behind the likes of the Giants and Falcons.
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Sauce Gardner helped off subject early in first quarter
Sauce Gardner is injured on the Colts’ first defensive drive and exits the sport.
Some form of downturn was inevitable. The Colts turned the ball over 4 occasions throughout eight video games to begin the season. They have been dominant on fourth down, took sacks 3.4% of the time and had 9 performs of 40 yards or extra (most of any group). It was at all times going to be troublesome to maintain that form of manufacturing. Over this four-game stretch, Shane Steichen’s group has eight turnovers, has run an 8.4% sack charge and has simply two positive aspects of 40 yards or extra. The Colts have nonetheless run the most effective success charges within the league, however the offense has fewer splash performs and extra drive-altering destructive performs than it did over the primary two months of the season.
Maybe owing to the workload or Jones being unable to affect video games as a runner, Jonathan Taylor has additionally slowed down. His common run throughout the first two months got here with 2.9 yards earlier than preliminary contact, the most effective marks within the NFL. Over the previous 4 weeks, that is all the way down to 2.3 yards earlier than first contact, which is nice however not on the high of the leaderboard. Taylor continues to be averaging 5.2 yards per carry over this four-game stretch, which is clearly wonderful, however he has dropped from being an MVP candidate into merely being the most effective backs in soccer.
The Colts should have recognized an offensive slowdown was coming, and that certainly inspired them as they determined to commerce two first-round picks for Gardner, whose arrival allowed defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo important artistic freedom together with his protection and blitz selections. Any form of significant absence for Gardner would handicap him as soon as once more. On Sunday, with Gardner sidelined for a lot of the contest and the sport plan already put in throughout the week, C.J. Stroud went 9-of-11 for 132 yards in opposition to man protection.
Indy’s bye in Week 11 gave the Colts per week to relaxation, nevertheless it additionally kicked off a brutal stretch. After dropping to the Chiefs, every of Indy’s remaining six video games (together with the Week 13 Houston loss) are in opposition to groups with profitable information. Steichen’s group nonetheless has a home-and-home with the Jags, a highway journey to Seattle, one other assembly with Houston and a house recreation in opposition to the 49ers to come back. The Colts shall be doing that doubtlessly with out Gardner for some or all of that span and with a quarterback taking part in by way of a damaged fibula. It is by no means what the Colts imagined once they have been making an attempt to pin down the highest seed within the AFC on the commerce deadline. Two wins would in all probability be sufficient to get the Colts into the postseason, however this group had a lot larger hopes after its first half.
Week 13: Received 20-16 over the Colts
FPI probabilities to win the division: 19.3%
Soccer is a humorous recreation. One month in the past, the Texans have been 3-5 and going through a short-term future and not using a concussed C.J. Stroud after a loss to the Broncos. With Davis Mills getting into the lineup and video games in opposition to the Payments and Colts on the horizon, it was honest to wonder if they may take into account buying and selling some veterans away on the deadline and begin retooling and including additional draft capital prematurely of constructing one other run with a more healthy group and a greater offensive line in 2026.
As an alternative, a comeback win over the Jags appears to have saved Houston’s season. The Texans beat the Titans the next week, albeit after blowing a lead late within the fourth quarter, then bodily overwhelmed the Payments on a brief week. Now, after beating the Colts in Indy, the Texans are completely again within the thick of the divisional race.
They’ve finished it, partly, by working their method into an incredibly environment friendly offense. By way of that 3-5 begin, the Texans ranked twenty fifth in EPA per play and thirtieth in success charge. They have been battling lots of the identical consistency and run-game points we noticed sink the offense in 2024, and Stroud was ending up in third-and-long far too usually, exposing a weak offensive line in move safety.
Over the previous 4 video games, even with Mills at quarterback for a lot of the span, the Texans have been easy on that facet of the ball. Houston’s success charge over the previous month has jumped to 47%, behind solely the Rams and Cardinals. A scarcity of huge performs has led to the Texans rating 14th in EPA per play over the previous 4 video games, which could be a extra sensible indicator of the place their offense sits, however that is nonetheless a serious step ahead from the place they have been.
A method the Texans have made life simpler for his or her backfield is by getting extra linemen on the sector. Just like the Rams (who’ve adopted 13 personnel) and the Cardinals (who have been the league’s most outstanding 13 personnel offense earlier than this 12 months and have leaned into jumbo packages as a product of accidents at tight finish), the Texans have been aggressive in getting a sixth offensive lineman onto the sector in November. Throughout 55 snaps, the Texans have run a hit charge of almost 55% with that six-linemen grouping, trailing solely the Lions amongst groups that use it repeatedly. That is partly a product of groups leaning into it in short-yardage conditions, however the Texans are utilizing it extra usually than simply about anyone else within the league.
The six-lineman units pressure defenses to make powerful selections. Do they match with their base protection and open up the specter of the play-action move, or do they keep in a nickel sub package deal and run the danger of being outmanned by larger our bodies? It may create longer rush lanes for edge rushers and limits the defensive playbook, as most defenses merely do not have as many unique or quick-hitting pressures out of their base groupings nowadays.
Even when the Texans simply have a mean offense, combining that with one of many league’s high defenses makes for a scary proposition. Will Anderson Jr. continues to dominate opposing offenses, together with within the win over the Colts, the place Houston used him as a “spinner” and stood him up instantly over Tanor Bortolini earlier than he drove Indy’s middle again into Jones for a stress.
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Nico Collins runs in a go-ahead TD for Texans
Nico Collins will get the ball and finds the tip zone for a 7-yard landing.
DeMeco Ryans’ protection leads the league in factors allowed per drive (1.4), three-and-out charge (31%) and EPA per play (minus-0.8). The protection was inexplicably fooled by a fourth-and-26 trick play from the Payments for a primary down to increase the sport final week, however Danielle Hunter & Co. merely made up for it by bludgeoning Buffalo’s offensive line into submission.
The Texans have turned the ball over 3 times on offense over their previous 5 video games. With the protection they’ve, even a league-average offense goes to win video games if it may shield the soccer. Whereas the Texans will not be thrilled to see a Chiefs group that beat them twice final 12 months in Kansas Metropolis subsequent week, they comply with that up with dwelling video games in opposition to the Cardinals and Raiders earlier than ending up with essential video games in opposition to the Chargers and Colts. For a group whose playoff odds have been all the way down to 10.5% a month in the past, merely being again within the hunt should really feel like a victory.
AFC North
Week 13: Misplaced 32-14 to the Bengals
FPI probabilities to win the division: 61.4%
Properly, that wasn’t enjoyable. Enjoying on Thanksgiving with an opportunity to strike a declare on first place within the AFC North, the Ravens turned the ball over 5 occasions in an 18-point loss to the Bengals and returning quarterback Joe Burrow. A few of it was unhealthy luck, because the Ravens misplaced all 4 of their offensive fumbles, however there isn’t any excuse to be made for a group that was going through arguably the worst protection within the league.
It has now been 5 video games since Lamar Jackson returned to the lineup from his hamstring harm, and whereas the two-time MVP has battled different points over that span, he swears that he is wholesome and never coping with the form of accidents that will materially affect his play. There hasn’t been the identical form of explosiveness or willingness to scramble that we have seen from Jackson up to now, however let’s take what the star QB says at face worth.
Sadly, even when that is true, his precise efficiency merely hasn’t been near his typical requirements of play. As lately as the primary quarter of 2025, Jackson was nonetheless taking part in at an MVP degree. Whereas he isn’t the one particular person answerable for the struggles on offense, Jackson’s twenty third in Whole QBR since returning to the lineup, sandwiched between Joe Flacco and Tyler Shough.
Jackson is simply not taking part in properly sufficient as a passer. His completion share over expectation is minus-6.9% over this span, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats, and whereas that may be influenced by drops, his off-target move charge is almost 21%. Between 2023 and the primary month of 2025, Jackson ran a optimistic CPOE, and his off-target charge was simply over 15%. Issues can occur in a small pattern, however Jackson has been a completely totally different quarterback since he returned from his harm.
He additionally hasn’t made his typical affect within the run recreation. Going again to the beginning of 2023 by way of the primary month of 2025 once more, Jackson averaged precisely 26 rush yards per recreation on scrambles and 26 extra on designed runs. The specter of Jackson as a runner additionally created holes for his backs within the run recreation, as groups wanted to account for his capacity to maintain the ball, which modified their numbers on the bottom and restricted how artistic they might get with coverages and stress packages by way of the air.
Since coming back from the hamstring harm, although, Jackson is averaging 15 scramble yards per recreation and simply 6.2 yards per contest on designed runs. And whereas the Ravens have spiked large performs on the bottom right here and there, they proceed to be a a lot much less constant speeding assault this season. Baltimore is twenty fourth in success charge on designed runs, down from second a 12 months in the past.
The mixture of Henry and Jackson appeared to sign terror for opposing offenses within the pink zone, and final 12 months, the Ravens transformed a league-high 74.2% of their pink zone journeys into touchdowns. This season, that is all the best way all the way down to 46.5%, which is thirtieth within the NFL. A few of that’s the Jackson harm, however the Ravens have transformed solely 47.4% of their pink zone possessions into touchdowns since Jackson got here again into the lineup.
There are positives. The protection has been a lot improved since its brutal begin to the season, because it ranks third in EPA per play for the reason that Week 8 bye. After the Ravens turned issues round by shifting Kyle Hamilton right into a deep security position final 12 months at midseason, they’ve curiously managed to flip that script and succeed by pushing Hamilton nearer to the road of scrimmage and taking part in Alohi Gilman and Malaki Starks deeper in three-safety units this season. I am not at all times positive on correlation and causation, and Gilman has had his tough moments in protection since becoming a member of the group, however watching Hamilton tackle and shed offensive linemen on hole runs is actually enjoyable. There aren’t many safeties on the planet who can do what Hamilton does for this group.
I am a little bit involved that what the Ravens have finished is not precisely sustainable. They’ve began profitable within the precise moments on protection the place issues matter most. They’re second within the NFL for the reason that bye week in third-down conversion charge (30.1%) and are permitting opposing offenses to transform solely 26.3% of their pink zone journeys into touchdowns. That is best-defense-in-football territory, and I am unsure the Ravens are actually taking part in that method exterior the 20-yard line or on first and second down, which might make their efficiency in key spots extra realistically sustainable.
When it comes to the AFC North, it is proper to really feel as if all of this may not matter. The Bengals picked up an important win and acquired Burrow again, however they’re nonetheless method exterior the playoff image at 4-8 and have the Payments and Ravens to come back over the subsequent two weeks (7.2% to win the division, per FPI). I am going to get to the Steelers in a second, however no person’s taking part in nice soccer right here.
The Ravens are but to essentially even put collectively greater than a recreation or two the place they have been nice on either side of the ball. The offense was spectacular early within the season, however the protection was a catastrophe. By the point Jackson got here again, the protection had resolved, however now the offense is struggling. They masked the offensive woes in wins over groups such because the Vikings, Browns and Jets, however the loss to the Bengals was a wake-up name.
And now, because the alarm blares, the Ravens have actual points to face. They’ve to move to Cincinnati to face the Bengals once more and have a home-and-home with the Steelers. Win these video games they usually in all probability win the North, but when they do not sweep the divisional matchups, they would wish to beat the Patriots or Packers (in Inexperienced Bay) to get to 9 wins. Until the Steelers plan on breaking the Mike Tomlin rule, it will require 9 wins to say the AFC North. And whereas the Ravens are the group almost definitely to get there on this division, it is not feeling like a really enjoyable journey.
Week 13: Misplaced 26-7 to the Payments
FPI probabilities to win the division: 31.4%
Properly, the Steelers misplaced by 19 factors to a Payments group that did not have both of its beginning tackles on offense and hasn’t been in a position to cease the run on protection. Aaron Rodgers returned to play by way of his wrist harm, spent the whole recreation within the pistol, needed to depart the sport after an enormous hit, returned to complete the competition with a 6.2 Whole QBR after which blamed his receivers for not working the proper routes after the sport. Oh, and along with booing “Renegade,” the house followers chanted “Fireplace Tomlin” at their longtime head coach within the fourth quarter of a brutal dwelling loss. In any other case, issues have been nice in Pittsburgh on Sunday afternoon.
I can not actually blame the followers. Whereas the Steelers transformed a brief subject after a Josh Allen interception right into a landing, Rodgers & Co. mustered up solely 10 first downs and 165 yards throughout 10 possessions. Pittsburgh completed the sport averaging minus-0.33 EPA per play on offense, its worst efficiency in a recreation since 2019, when Mason Rudolph began in a loss to the Browns. Earlier than that, the final time the Steelers have been this unhealthy on offense in a recreation beneath Tomlin was 2012, on a day when their quarterback was a 38-year-old Charlie Batch.
Batch is now 50 years outdated, however I believe Steelers followers could be looking for him to take some snaps subsequent week. The Rodgers expertise has grown more and more painful for all events concerned, because the offense more and more seems to be the best way it did over the past days of Ben Roethlisberger beneath middle. Rodgers is averaging simply 2.7 seconds with the ball in his palms, the second-fastest charge of any quarterback within the NFL. His common throw is touring simply 5.7 yards within the air, tied with Dillon Gabriel for the shortest of any QB.
The objective is clearly to get the ball out of Rodgers’ palms and keep away from hits on a 41-year-old quarterback. When that does not occur, although, Rodgers has merely been unable to seek out alternate options. As ESPN’s Mina Kimes famous on Bluesky, stress on Rodgers has mainly been a play-ending phenomenon. Over his previous three video games, a pressured Rodgers has gone 1-of-12 for five yards. Rodgers nonetheless has his arm, however this offense is nearly fully predicated upon the short recreation and screens proper now.
That is simply not a practical match for what the Steelers should be. They need to be a heavy run group out of 13 personnel and/or six offensive linemen seems to be and run play-action to hit pictures off these groupings, just like the Titans did with Ryan Tannehill and A.J. Brown in Tennessee beneath Arthur Smith. DK Metcalf has been marginalized by the offense shrinking. He hasn’t topped 60 receiving yards in a recreation since Week 5 and has averaged 1.4 yards per route run since, which ranks 78th within the NFL.
The run recreation has been higher than I’d have anticipated, however when it is not working, the Steelers do not actually have a lot of a capability to generate prolonged drives. They’re twenty fifth in down set conversion charge, which measures how usually a group turns a sequence on first down into one other first down or a landing. The one groups that fail to select up not less than a single first down on the next share of their drives are the Titans and Raiders, who’ve every fired their major offensive architect.
On the defensive facet of the ball, in the meantime, there’s one other prerequisite: turnovers. The Steelers have improved a bit in protection since shifting Jalen Ramsey to security, they usually’re not fairly as turnover-intensive because the Bears, however this is not the identical protection that dominated groups lately drive-in and drive-out. Nice defenses pressure a ton of takeaways and stifle offenses even once they handle to carry on to the soccer.
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Joey Bosa’s strip sack results in a Payments TD
Joey Bosa forces Aaron Rodgers to show the ball over and Christian Benford recovers for a Payments landing.
Final 12 months’s Steelers compelled a league-high 33 turnovers, however once they did not pressure one, the protection nonetheless managed to carry its personal, rating twelfth in factors allowed per drive amongst possessions that led to one thing aside from a fumble restoration or interception. This 12 months? They’re twenty sixth in the identical measure. The one groups permitting factors extra usually on drives that do not finish in turnovers are the Commanders and Bengals.
On Sunday, the Steelers picked off Allen and recovered a James Prepare dinner III fumble, however even that wasn’t sufficient. The Payments scored on every of their remaining 4 drives and picked up a number of first downs on each possession however one. With the Payments down two of their finest gamers in offensive tackles Spencer Brown and Dion Dawkins, the Steelers weren’t in a position to sack Allen as soon as on 27 dropbacks, though they did handle to stress the reigning MVP.
Even worse, accidents have gotten extra of a difficulty for Pittsburgh. Rodgers seems to be banged up and albeit depressing to be on the market at occasions. Broderick Jones, the group’s beginning left sort out, hit injured reserve over the weekend with a neck harm. And Patrick Queen, who has struggled since becoming a member of in free company on a large deal final 12 months, left the sport with a hip problem and didn’t return.
On paper, the Steelers have a comparatively pleasant schedule to shut out their slate. There’s an enormous recreation subsequent week in opposition to the Ravens earlier than the 2 rivals reunite in Week 18 for a rematch in Pittsburgh. In between, the Steelers host a Dolphins group that certainly will not take pleasure in touring to Pittsburgh in December, journey to play a Lions group that hasn’t been taking part in its finest soccer of late after which go to play the Browns in Cleveland. Beating the Dolphins and Browns and splitting with the Ravens would get the Steelers to their Tomlin mandate of 9 wins.
Proper now, it feels as if Pittsburgh’s finest argument for profitable the division is taking a look at Baltimore and saying that the Ravens will not be superb. Then once more, Baltimore’s finest argument for profitable the division is doing the identical factor with the Steelers.
