Week 17 is completely begging us to overreact to it.
The Steelers have already blown it! Derrick Henry goes to play 5 extra seasons and break each report! The Texans’ protection goes to be unbeatable within the playoffs! Tyler Shough is a franchise QB! The Commanders want to fireplace all people!
So much occurred earlier than Sunday in Week 17. There was rather a lot resolved, too, and a spicy Week 18 is ready up with two division titles and two 1-seeds on the road. We’re at that time within the season after we know whether or not our early-season reactions had been overreactions. However the stuff we’re reacting to this week, as we attempt to determine which overreactions would possibly maintain up and which of them are mirages, appears extremely consequential. So, let’s get to it.
Leap to:
Henry, Ravens destined to run over Steelers?
NFC South winner assured an early exit?
Patriots Dynasty 2.0 set for launch?
Lions’ Tremendous Bowl window has already closed?
Is an NFL draft lottery on the horizon?
The Ravens are going to run everywhere in the Steelers and into the playoffs
Baltimore and Henry placed on a present Saturday night time in a 41-24 victory at Lambeau Subject. Henry ran for 216 yards and 4 touchdowns on a career-high 36 carries. Along with rescuing the championship desires of hundreds of fantasy soccer managers, he additionally stored the Ravens’ season alive, as they prevailed in a must-win sport during which they performed with out injured beginning quarterback Lamar Jackson.
Baltimore nonetheless wanted assist Sunday, although, and it obtained it. The Browns beat the Steelers 13-6, which prevented Pittsburgh from clinching the AFC North and arrange a Week 18 winner-take-all showdown between the Ravens and Steelers in Pittsburgh. The winner will probably be division champs. The loser will probably be out of the playoffs.
1:41
Drake Maye shines in Patriots blowout of the Jets
Drake Maye throws 5 touchdowns within the Patriots’ 42-10 win over the Jets.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
The Steelers have been robust towards the run the previous three weeks. They allowed 63 yards on 16 carries to the Dolphins in Week 15. They gave up 15 yards on 12 carries towards the Lions in Week 16. They usually allowed 78 yards on 25 carries to a Browns crew that was enjoying with out its finest again in Quinshon Judkins. For the season, although, the Steelers rank twenty fifth within the league in opponents’ rush EPA, twentieth in opponents’ dashing success fee and 14th in yards allowed per rush. Furthermore, whereas the Steelers gained in Baltimore in Week 14, Henry had 94 yards on 25 carries and the Ravens had 217 on 40 as a crew.
Rookie defensive deal with Derrick Harmon did not play for Pittsburgh within the Week 14 sport however has performed the previous two weeks, which is probably going a giant motive for the turnaround. However simply because the Steelers have not too long ago toughened up towards the run doesn’t suggest they’re going to have solutions for Henry.
Might Pittsburgh win? After all. It simply beat the Ravens three weeks in the past, and Baltimore has been removed from dependable this season. But when Saturday unlocked one thing with Henry, it might be a tough day for the Steelers’ protection, and the offense may wrestle once more with receiver DK Metcalf nonetheless suspended. The Steelers had a shot to beat Cleveland on Sunday and make the Week 18 sport towards Baltimore irrelevant. They missed, and Henry may make them remorse it.
The NFC South champion will lose its first-round residence playoff sport
Each groups in competition for the NFC South misplaced Sunday. The primary-place Panthers fell 27-10 at residence to the Seahawks, whereas the second-place Buccaneers misplaced 20-17 to the Dolphins in Miami. Carolina’s loss dropped the Panthers to 8-8. Tampa Bay’s loss was its fourth in a row and seventh in its previous eight video games, and it dropped the Bucs to 7-9.
That signifies that if the Buccaneers beat the Panthers at residence subsequent week, they’ll win the NFC South with a dropping report. They’d nonetheless get to host a playoff sport, as would a 9-8 Panthers crew if it is ready to prevail subsequent week. Not precisely an inspirational dash to the end.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
We will debate about whether or not it is honest {that a} 9-8 or 8-9 division champ will get to host a playoff sport towards a 13-4 or 12-5 wild-card crew, however the guidelines say they do. And we have seen it matter. The Seahawks had been 7-9 division winners 15 years in the past after they knocked off the defending Tremendous Bowl champion Saints within the wild-card spherical within the famed “Beast Quake” sport.
The NFC South champion goes to host a first-round sport towards some NFC West crew, both the Seahawks (who have already got 13 wins), 49ers or Rams (every of whom had 11 wins earlier than enjoying their Week 17 video games). Powerful matchup, clearly, as Sunday’s Seahawks-Panthers consequence confirmed. However the Panthers did not too long ago beat the Rams in Charlotte and have a Week 9 victory over the Packers at Lambeau Subject on their résumé, so that they can beat the opposite playoff groups.
The Bucs have gained just one sport since Halloween, however previous to this slide they beat Houston in September, together with Seattle and San Francisco in October. There are nonetheless a number of good gamers on the Bucs. Would it not be
The Patriots are about to begin a brand new dynasty round Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel
New England completely destroyed the Jets 42-10 on Sunday. Maye was 19-for-21 for 256 yards and 5 landing passes and barely needed to play within the second half. If the Patriots beat the Dolphins subsequent week and the Chargers beat the Broncos, the Patriots not solely can have halted the Payments’ streak of 5 straight division titles, they’re going to be the No. 1 seed within the AFC playoffs and earn a first-round bye.
Vrabel’s first season as New England’s head coach and Maye’s second because the Patriots’ beginning quarterback has been a superb success. These guys are up for Coach of the 12 months and MVP awards, respectively, and New England has an opportunity to return its franchise to glory with a Tremendous Bowl run.
1:08
RC: Goff’s efficiency unacceptable vs. Vikings
Ryan Clark explains why Jared Goff’s play in a must-win sport vs. the Vikings was unacceptable and why he would not examine the QB to Sam Darnold.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Full respect to the Patriots for what they have been in a position to do that season. And it would not be any shock to see them make noise within the playoffs, particularly in the event that they get that No. 1 seed. Maye appears like the actual deal, and Vrabel clearly is. They’re seemingly right here to remain as actual AFC East contenders. However we all know from the previous half-decade that the Payments’ Josh Allen and Sean McDermott can win division titles, too.
I do know New England followers do not need to hear this, however the Patriots have benefited from one of many league’s simpler schedules. Subsequent season, they’re going to face a first- or second-place schedule that may check them extra. After all, by subsequent season, in addition they ought to have augmented their roster after one other offseason of aggressively buying gamers, so possibly they’re going to be arrange. Regardless, Buffalo isn’t going away so long as it has Allen, and this house does not throw round phrases like “dynasty” after one good season. Even when it is an ideal one.
The Lions’ Tremendous Bowl window is closed
Two seasons in the past, the Lions went 12-5 and held a 17-point lead on the 49ers at halftime of the NFC Championship Recreation in Santa Clara, California. They misplaced that sport, and Detroit coach Dan Campbell made a remark after about how groups can by no means ensure they’re going to get that far once more.
Final season, the Lions went 15-2 and had been the No. 1 seed within the NFC playoffs however misplaced to the Commanders within the divisional spherical. On Thursday, the Lions misplaced 23-10 to the Vikings to drop to 8-8 for the season. The loss eradicated Detroit from playoff competition and raised questions on whether or not it’s a crew headed within the incorrect route.
Verdict: OVERREACTION There is perhaps some questions value asking about quarterback Jared Goff’s efficiency late on this season and whether or not the Lions have gone so far as they may with him. The Rams requested themselves these questions 5 years in the past, traded Goff and a bunch of picks for Matthew Stafford and gained the Tremendous Bowl straight away. There additionally is perhaps some questions value asking about how badly the offense missed former coordinator Ben Johnson, who left after final season and simply gained the NFC North in his first yr as coach of the Bears. However Campbell and GM Brad Holmes have proven an distinctive potential to place collectively a top-end roster and develop a top-end teaching employees. I am not going to let one down season persuade me the Lions are carried out. The Giants and the Raiders met Sunday in a “battle” of 2-13 groups with main implications for the highest decide within the 2026 draft. The Raiders’ method to this sport raised a number of eyebrows across the league and delivered to the floor an previous debate about tanking and groups not attempting their hardest to win late-season video games if dropping can enhance their draft place. Las Vegas positioned three starters — edge rusher Maxx Crosby, tight finish Brock Bowers and security Jeremy Chinn — on injured reserve final week, though all three of them performed and completed their Week 16 sport with out restrictions. Crosby was mentioned to be infuriated by the choice and left the crew’s facility after getting the information. There have been some within the Giants’ constructing, in keeping with sources, who thought what the Raiders had been doing smelled humorous. New York added a number of gamers to its harm report Friday and Saturday and did not present up in Vegas at full energy, both. Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION The Raiders can say all they need about how Crosby would possibly want knee surgical procedure after the season. Yearly, dozens of NFL gamers end out their seasons, then have offseason surgical procedure. Just about each participant is banged up at this level of the season, and if a crew desires to let you know the man has an harm that retains him from having the ability to play, it is fairly robust to show it incorrect. However once more, the way in which the Raiders have dealt with the previous week has lots of people across the league speaking. The Raiders had been completely atrocious in Sunday’s 34-10 loss. They did not seem like a crew attempting its hardest to win. The NFL completely doesn’t need there to be a notion about its groups chucking up the sponge on video games that rely within the standings. So if different groups elevate sufficient of a stink about what the Raiders are doing, it is solely potential that anti-tanking measures will come up for dialogue on the offseason house owners’ conferences.
There will probably be an NFL draft lottery inside 5 years
