Betting the Tremendous Bowl is difficult, even in the event you observe the league constantly. I get it. Analyzing personnel, offensive developments and the protection or stress schemes that may affect the ultimate numbers is lots — and all of it issues.
Nonetheless, there’s a neater path right here once we focus solely on the quarterbacks on this matchup. New England Patriots QB Drake Maye is an MVP candidate. As is the Seattle Seahawks’ Sam Darnold. Each are former first-rounders, one thriving in simply his second season, the opposite a veteran enjoying among the finest soccer of his profession together with his fifth group in eight seasons.
So, let’s break down the quarterbacks, beginning with their respective abilities and offensive programs, and lay out our greatest bets for each in Tremendous Bowl LX.
Word: Tremendous Bowl odds by DraftKings Sportsbook
and topic to alter.
Drake Maye
An correct thrower who delivers the ball with exact location, Maye accomplished a league-best 72.0% of his passes through the common season in Josh McDaniels’ system. With schemed ideas that open voids in the midst of the sector, plus the catch-and-run targets, Maye can play on rhythm whereas utilizing his high-end pocket mobility to reset his throwing window when he will get pressured. And given his dual-threat traits, Maye produces on designed carries whereas creating battle for defenses on scramble makes an attempt, having posted 450 speeding yards this season and one other 141 up to now within the playoffs.
Finest bets for Maye
OVER 19.5 completions (-108)
The Seahawks are a heavy Cowl 2 protection, enjoying it on league-high 33.1% of opponent dropbacks. That shell protection limits vertical routes, nevertheless it additionally permits quarterbacks to take the throws which might be obtainable beneath. Maye averaged 20.8 completions this season, and he may very well be pressured to throw with extra quantity if New England trails within the second half.
OVER 39.5 speeding yards (-114)
Maye rushed for 65 yards towards Denver within the AFC Championship Recreation and has topped the 40-yard mark in three of his previous 4 video games. He performs with actually good ball service imaginative and prescient when he breaks comprise, and I imagine he might want to make some difference-making performs as a runner to win crucial moments versus this Seattle protection.
Anytime TD (+320)
Let’s take a shot right here, given the juice at +320. Maye rushed for 4 touchdowns within the common season, and he added one other rating within the AFC title sport on a designed carry (QB draw). McDaniels can scheme for his quarterback within the low purple zone space of the sector. (Maye ranks twelfth on Mike Clay’s checklist of most possible gamers to succeed in the tip zone. Learn the total story right here.)
Sam Darnold
Darnold is a straightforward slot in coordinator Klint Kubiak’s offense, a system that mirrors each the run and the move sport on the huge zone motion. This permits Darnold to play on schedule at the next price, utilizing outlined reads to search out second- and third-level voids, and he has an elite goal in huge receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Plus, with Darnold’s mobility, he can get on the perimeters on boot ideas, and Kubiak may also arrange his quarterback for vertical shot performs.
Darnold accomplished 67.7% of his throws within the common season (sixth finest within the league) and topped the 4,000-yard passing mark. Whereas Darnold nonetheless makes some questionable choices with the ball late within the down, Kubiak can work to maintain him on rhythm versus New England.
Finest bets for Darnold
Longest completion OVER 35.5 yards (-115)
Darnold had two completions of 40 or extra yards within the NFC Championship Recreation and 17 this season of no less than 36 yards (together with the playoffs). As I stated above, Kubiak will scheme these vertical throws. Take your photographs to Smith-Njigba and Rashid Shaheed right here.
OVER 2.5 speeding makes an attempt (+106)
Darnold had solely 35 speeding makes an attempt within the common season (2.1 per sport). Nonetheless, can we get one scramble out of Darnold, plus a few kneel-downs on the finish of the half or finish of the sport? Bear in mind, these kneel-downs depend as speeding makes an attempt. And I am taking Seattle to win. Let’s make this guess.
OVER 1.5 landing passes (-122)
Darnold threw a number of landing passes in eight regular-season video games, and he dropped three on the Rams within the NFC Championship Recreation. I like this guess due to Kubiak’s capability to script ideas within the excessive purple zone, and Smith-Njigba can create his personal separation when the Patriots play man protection.
Yet another bonus guess …
Maye/Darnold mixed 450+ move yards (-119)
Sure, we’re two superb defenses on this matchup. However this quantity feels low, so let’s get in on this now earlier than it begins to climb nearer to sport day. This season, Maye averaged 258.5 passing yards per sport, whereas Darnold checked in at 238.1.
