Welcome to the following era of Tremendous Bowl props — actually. When the NFL first put in chips in each participant’s shoulder pads practically a decade in the past, I doubt the league imagined wagers being positioned on the player-tracking information being collected … however right here we’re.
And, in my opinion, it represents a fantastic spot to search out betting worth. As a result of, who the heck is aware of how typically a participant reaches 19 mph as a ball provider? We will be that somebody.
So, only for the Tremendous Bowl, I’ve spent the previous week researching these props and constructing fashions to attempt to forecast these Subsequent Gen Stats-based classes. Let’s dive in and hopefully discover some winners.
Notice: Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook
and topic to alter.
Stefon Diggs quickest ball carry pace UNDER 18.5 mph (-160)
That is my favourite Tremendous Bowl wager, interval. After I noticed my mannequin’s take — that Diggs had an 88% likelihood to go underneath this quantity — I assumed I would made a mistake alongside the best way. So, as a fast baseline verify, I went again to see what number of occasions Diggs had gone over that line this season. The reply? One time. He hit 18.7 mph throughout Week 16. That is it!
Ball provider max pace would not have that a lot to do with how briskly a participant would run on a observe. As an alternative, it is concerning the context wherein a participant is carrying the ball. A straight-line dash to the top zone? That is when gamers hit 21 and even 22 mph. However Diggs isn’t that sort of participant. He isn’t sometimes streaking downfield on a go route, catching a go previous the final defender and operating towards the top zone.
Kayshon Boutte to document probably the most air yards on a single reception (+500)
To name Boutte a downfield participant is promoting quick simply how excessive his route tree is. Amongst extensive receivers with at the very least 300 routes run this season, playoffs included, Boutte had the best proportion of deep fades or go routes (30%). That is properly forward of Quentin Johnston, who completed a distant second at 23%, and greater than double the common participant (12%). Boutte would not all the time catch passes, however when he does, they’re sometimes downfield. I make the honest value right here +379.
Boutte quickest ball carry pace UNDER 18.5 mph (-105)
Wait a minute. Did not we simply speak about how Boutte is a downfield receiver and subsequently somebody who is especially prone to hit a high pace?
That is true, however there are two causes we should always nonetheless wager this underneath:
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Boutte merely would not get that many possibilities; he wants the ball in his palms to document a qualifying quickest pace for this class. His receptions prop heading into this Tremendous Bowl is 2.5 — shaded towards the underneath — and that may be a characteristic within the mannequin.
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We’re not betting a tail final result right here. The air yards prop above is a multi-way market the place we’re centered on the extremes. However this one is measuring Boutte’s median final result, and regardless of his pace upside, Boutte’s median final result high pace is sneaky low.
Mack Hollins quickest ball carry pace UNDER 19.5 mph (-180)
The identical logic applies for Hollins because it does for Boutte, besides Hollins is not the identical stage of vertical menace as Boutte is.
Rhamondre Stevenson quickest ball carry pace OVER 16.5 mph (-125)
Lastly, an over! Though Stevenson isn’t recognized for his breakaway functionality, what he does deliver to the desk is a ton of (forecasted) alternative. Stevenson’s dashing makes an attempt line is about at 14.5, along with a 3.5 receptions prop line. He simply wants to interrupt via on a type of performs to get us the win right here.
Stevenson has gone over this line in 12 of 17 video games this season, and he wasn’t all the time getting this heavy of an (anticipated) workload, both.
George Holani to document probably the most YAC on a single reception (25-1)
In contrast to the best air yards prop, this class consists of extensive receivers, tight ends and operating backs all as possible candidates to win it. And though no single participant is especially prone to win — I make Jaxon Smith-Njigba the favourite at only a 14.5% likelihood — Holani seems to be a worth at this value. With Zach Charbonnet out, Holani will get some work. And final week he ran a route on 35% of the Seahawks’ dropbacks and recorded three receptions. That is sufficient to present him a preventing likelihood on this class.
