Regardless of 12 locations and 27 factors separating Borussia Dortmund and Mainz within the Bundesliga, Niko Kovac mentioned his staff’s upcoming conflict was removed from a foregone conclusion.
Dortmund sit second within the top-flight after a effective current run of type and are inside six factors of leaders Bayern Munich forward of welcoming Mainz to Westfalenstadion on Friday.
And in response to the Opta supercomputer, BVB have a slight likelihood of overhauling Vincent Kompany’s staff on the summit to win their first top-flight title since 2011-12.
Certainly, Dortmund completed high of the pile in simply 2.6% of its season simulations, with Bayern romping to a thirty fifth Bundesliga crown in a whopping 97.4% of these situations.
Nonetheless, BVB are nonetheless in with an opportunity of one other trophy after reaching the final 16 of the Champions League, with a two-legged tie towards Atalanta to come back later this month.
The Bundesliga giants will face RB Leipzig and Bayern both facet of their European commitments, and Kovac acknowledged the significance of his staff’s upcoming fixtures.
“We now have 5 vital matches in two weeks,” Kovac mentioned. “Mainz is a very powerful sport for me as a result of a win will assist us to arrange for the upcoming video games.”
Seeking to proceed our sturdy run of type within the Bundesliga! pic.twitter.com/wNKg8z3izl
— Borussia Dortmund (@BlackYellow) February 12, 2026
However Dortmund tackle a Mainz facet who’ve been revitalised underneath Urs Fischer because the 59-year-old changed Bo Henriksen on the finish of final 12 months.
Mainz have already picked up 13 factors in six Bundesliga video games in 2026, climbing to 14th within the desk after sitting on the backside of the desk with eight factors after 15 video games.
Solely Dortmund (16) and Hoffenheim (15) have collected extra factors than Mainz (13, degree with Bayern and Stuttgart) within the Bundesliga this 12 months.
As well as, Fischer has picked up 15 factors in his first eight Bundesliga video games with Mainz. Solely Jurgen Klopp in 2004-05 beforehand picked up a minimum of as many factors in his first eight top-flight matches with the membership.
“I’m delighted that he’s again within the Bundesliga. He did an excellent job in Berlin,” Kovac mentioned of Fischer. “You’ll be able to see that he’s now demonstrating these qualities at Mainz too.
“Mainz are preventing for survival. They put in good performances in Munich and Leipzig. This isn’t a walkover, this can be a very well-prepared staff.”
Kovac additionally confirmed that Marcel Sabitzer and Karim Adeyemi are in line for a return to the squad after lacking their 2-1 win over Wolfsburg final day out.
Yan Couto may be again in rivalry after recovering from sickness, however Emre Can and Filippo Mane are nonetheless out with accidents, whereas Nico Schlotterbeck is suspended.
“I’m satisfied that we now have sufficient high quality to win the sport,” Kovac added.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Borussia Dortmund – Serhou Guirassy
Serhou Guirassy has scored three targets in his final two league video games and has 4 Bundesliga targets in 2026, only one aim fewer than he managed earlier than the winter break (5).
He has netted 30 targets in his first 50 top-flight appearances for Dortmund – solely Erling Haaland (50) and Timo Konietzka (41) have scored extra for the membership of their first 50 Bundesliga outings.
Mainz – Nadiem Amiri
Mainz’s in-form Nadiem Amiri has scored in 5 consecutive Bundesliga matches for the primary time. Scoring in six consecutive appearances would equal the membership report in a single top-flight season, which Mohamed Zidan achieved in 2012.
With 9 targets, Amiri has set a brand new private finest inside a single league season. In 2026, he’s the joint-top goalscorer within the top-flight with six targets, alongside Andrej Kramaric.
MATCH PREDICTION: BORUSSIA DORTMUND WIN
Dortmund have received their final two Bundesliga matches towards Mainz, having been winless of their earlier 4 encounters.
BVB are additionally unbeaten of their final 5 house league video games towards Mainz (W2 D3), with their final house defeat towards them coming in June 2020 (0-2).
Kovac’s facet are additionally on a effective run of type. They’ve recorded 48 factors after 21 Bundesliga video games, their finest tally at this stage for seven years (50 factors in 2018-19).
Solely in 2010-11 (51) and 2018-19 (50) have the staff had extra factors after 21 Bundesliga matches than they do presently (48, similar as 2015-16).
Dortmund are additionally unbeaten of their final 14 Bundesliga matches (W10 D4), going 1-0 up in all of them – 15 consecutive Bundesliga video games with a 1-0 lead would equal the membership’s all-time league report.
They’ve received their final 5 Bundesliga matches, which equals their longest profitable run underneath Kovac. Dortmund final had extra consecutive league wins at the start of 2023 underneath Edin Terzic (eight).
The percentages appear stacked towards Mainz, however they’ve received their final three Bundesliga video games in a row, which is their longest profitable streak since between February and March 2025 (4 underneath Henriksen).
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Borussia Dortmund – 59.3%
Draw – 20.5%
Mainz – 20.2%
