Bayern Munich are arguably Europe’s greatest crew.
However successful the Champions League can be a option to show it.
Final week, Bayern turned in a press release efficiency on the Santiago Bernabeu, the place they got here away as 2-1 victors.
Nonetheless, Kylian Mbappe’s strike has given Actual Madrid one thing to construct on in Wednesday’s second leg, as these two giants of European soccer battle it out for a spot within the Champions League semi-finals.
Each groups had 20 photographs apiece in what was a high-octane thriller within the first leg, however Bayern’s high quality simply instructed ultimately, with Luis Diaz and Harry Kane giving them the benefit within the tie.
And now, again on house turf, the Bundesliga champions elect will probably be trying to get the job carried out, with a treble effectively on the playing cards for them this time period.
What’s anticipated?
Bayern’s victory within the first leg ended a nine-game winless run for them towards Madrid within the Champions League (D2 L7).
Solely as soon as earlier than have they received each legs of a knockout stage tie towards them within the European Cup/Champions League, doing so within the 2000-01 semi-finals (1-0 away, 2-1 at house).
For the reason that begin of the 2013-14 season, Madrid (three) have the joint-most away wins towards Bayern throughout all competitions, regardless of solely taking part in there 4 instances on this interval (additionally three wins in 17 video games for Borussia Dortmund and three wins in 13 video games for Borussia Monchengladbach).
Plus, Madrid are unbeaten of their final 4 away video games towards Bayern (W3 D1).
Within the Bundesliga period (since 1963-64), solely two sides have managed to go 5 in a row with out shedding away to Bayern: Werder Bremen (5 from 1989-1992 and 2007-2010) and Koln (5 from 2003-2010).
Bayern’s latest document towards Madrid will not be improbable, however Opta’s supercomputer is fancying them to get the job carried out.
Vincent Kompany’s crew come out on prime in 56.9% of the mannequin’s data-led sims, with Madrid successful 22.8% of the time. There’s a 20.3% probability of a draw.
Free-scoring Bayern set for glory?
Bayern have already plundered 105 Bundesliga targets, smashing the document for the variety of targets in a single marketing campaign within the competitors with loads of video games to spare.
Kompany has now overseen 101 video games on the helm, and in that point, Bayern have scored extra targets (307) and registered the next anticipated targets (267.8) than some other crew in Europe’s prime 5 leagues throughout all competitions. Solely Barcelona (82) and Actual Madrid (78) can boast extra wins than Bayern’s 77.
Bayern’s victory on the Bernabeu was the twenty third time they received away from house within the first leg of a two-legged knockout stage tie within the European Cup/Champions League – they’ve solely been eradicated in one of many earlier 22, struggling an away targets defeat to Inter within the 2010-11 spherical of 16 (received 1-0 away, misplaced 3-2 at house).
Since successful the trophy again in 2020, Bayern have solely progressed past the quarter-finals as soon as, doing so in 2023-24, so whereas many onlookers are contemplating them favourites for the title, there’s nonetheless a significant hurdle for them to navigate.
Their fearsome assault is spearheaded by Kane, however he’s by far Bayern’s solely menace.
Michael Olise has assisted six targets within the Champions League this season; the joint-most by a Bayern participant in a single version (additionally Leroy Sané in 2021-22 and Hasan Salihamidzic in 2001-02).
The winger leads the way in which for assists in all competitions amongst gamers in Europe’s prime 5 leagues this time period, with 25.
Then there’s Diaz, who has eight aim involvements within the Champions League this season (5 targets, three assists), now probably the most by a Colombian in a single season within the competitors.
Champions League specialists to strike once more?
Madrid have probably the most semi-final appearances in European Cup/Champions League historical past (33).
If they’re eradicated right here, nonetheless, they’ll have failed to succeed in the semi-finals as many instances within the final two seasons (two) as they did within the earlier 14 editions mixed, between 2010-11 and 2023-24 (two).
However whereas Bayern come into this contest on the again of an enormous win over St. Pauli, Madrid may solely draw 1-1 with Girona of their final LaLiga outing, leaving their title hopes fading quick.
Certainly, given the nine-point benefit Barca maintain in LaLiga, the Champions League is realistically Madrid’s final hope of silverware this season, so the strain is on.
Bayern are handed an 83.7% probability of progressing from the tie, and so they have a 30.2% probability of going all the way in which and successful the trophy, Madrid are actually not as well-fancied by the Opta supercomputer.
Madrid, however, are given only a 3.2% probability of successful the title. Of the groups left within the competitors, solely Sporting CP (1.9%) and Liverpool (1.8%) have a decrease chance of claiming the trophy.
That is Madrid, although. They’ll by no means be discounted, particularly within the Champions League.
Getting ready for the match towards @FCBayernEN! pic.twitter.com/VJ5dihdNzF
— Actual Madrid C.F. (@realmadriden) April 12, 2026
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Bayern Munich – Harry Kane
Kane is having fun with a stellar season. Already on 49 targets in all competitions for his membership this time period, 10 greater than some other participant in Europe’s prime 5 leagues (Mbappe ranks second on 39).
The 32-year-old has scored or assisted in 4 consecutive Champions League appearances towards Madrid (two targets, two assists), the joint-longest run by a participant towards the Spanish aspect within the competitors (additionally 4 by Giovane Élber in 2002 and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang in 2017).
The England captain has 30 targets in 35 Champions League appearances for Bayern Munich – probably the most of any participant within the competitors because the begin of 2023-24.
Actual Madrid – Kylian Mbappe
If Los Blancos are to make it by, then Mbappe will seemingly be essential.
9 of Mbappe’s 14 targets within the Champions League this season have been scored away from house. Ought to he discover the web on this recreation, the Madrid ahead can be the primary participant ever to attain 10+ away targets in a single European Cup/Champions League version.
Mbappe is simply three targets away from equalling Cristiano Ronaldo’s document for probably the most in a single Champions League marketing campaign (17, set in 2013-14).
Robert Lewandowski (15 in 2019-20), and Karim Benzema (15 in 2021-22) are the one gamers apart from Ronaldo to internet 15+ in a single season.
Three extra targets would additionally see him transfer above Madrid nice Raul, into the all-time prime 5 for Champions League targets.
