How our F1 2026 pre-season predictions are wanting now

Because the 2026 F1 season restarts in Miami, our F1 writers revisit the pre-season predictions they made on the conclusion of winter testing in Bahrain. Who’s nonetheless on monitor and who’s wanting foolish already?

Constructors: That is how we voted

No surprises on the entrance

Ronald Vording: “Relating to the groups, it ought to come as no shock that I’m sticking with my prediction for the constructors’ champion. George Russell is correct that Mercedes’ benefit received’t final eternally, however its decline will likely be gradual — and the group’s edge over the primary three race weekends was really a bit larger than it appeared, partly masked by the yo-yo racing.

“If I have been to vary something within the prime three, I’d now rank McLaren second. The beginning of the season has been difficult for Andrea Stella’s group, however it has made important progress in understanding the facility unit since Melbourne, and its growth on the chassis facet has historically been robust.

“Behind them, I anticipate Crimson Bull to get better considerably over time — not sufficient to problem the highest three groups, however sufficient to ultimately beat Alpine to the ‘better of the remaining’ place behind Mercedes, McLaren and Ferrari. As for the remaining, I’d solely swap Audi and Williams, though the Grove-based group may nonetheless make important positive aspects because it continues to scale back weight.”

Jake Boxall-Legge: “When it comes to the groups’ aggressive order to date, I believe I used to be within the ballpark. Mercedes and Ferrari, per testing, all the time appeared a step forward, though McLaren is catching the Prancing Horses now that it is bought its begins collectively.

“I believe one may make a straightforward swap and swap Audi and Williams round, however I can not actually quibble with the remaining; whereas Haas and Alpine are at the moment forward of Crimson Bull within the championship, this is not essentially an indicator of tempo at this stage. We’re within the attention-grabbing a part of the season the place groups begin placing their larger growth gadgets collectively, so there’s each probability that this might shuffle round.

“My picks of Aston Martin and Cadillac on the rear most likely will not change in the intervening time, except Cadillac has discovered greater than a second per lap, and if Aston Martin and Honda have ironed out their mixed points…”

Filip Cleeren: “I had McLaren forward of Ferrari for second and I nonetheless really feel fairly good about that. I nonetheless again the papaya squad to get forward on the long-term and I am curious to see how a lot the group’s Miami Grand Prix improve bundle goes to be a step in that course.

“The place I’ve deviated subsequent is Williams, and I have been fairly improper thus far on the group confirming its upward development from 2025, with a automotive that’s extra chubby and underdeveloped than initially anticipated. And the way may none of us had predicted Haas in fourth?! Disappointing! I believe it is simply the beginning of what is going to be an in depth season-long battle that can hold fluctuating as groups deliver upgrades, and that is what we need to see.”

Drivers: That is how we voted

We underestimated Kimi Antonelli

Filip Cleeren: “My greatest gaffe was Kimi Antonelli on the drivers’ facet, who I had solely put seventh. I’m more than pleased to be confirmed improper by the Italian teenager, who appears like he is figured it out and can provide George Russell and run for his cash. I nonetheless assume Russell is the person to beat, although.” 

Ronald Vording: “Yeah, in relation to the drivers, it’s clear that I additionally rated Antonelli far too low in my preliminary predictions. That’s partly as a result of Mercedes look like even additional forward than initially anticipated, however above all as a result of the younger Italian has made a robust impression over the primary three race weekends. After all, he’ll inevitably make errors, however even taking that into consideration, I’d nonetheless promote him to second place within the up to date predictions.

“Given Crimson Bull’s points, it additionally is sensible to put each McLaren drivers in addition to Lewis Hamilton forward of Max Verstappen. The Miami race weekend ought to give us a bit extra readability — particularly to see whether or not Crimson Bull now totally understands the (important) points with the RB22 — however even then, there may be nonetheless loads of work to be completed in Milton Keynes.”

Kimi Antonelli has grown up faster than anticipated with Mercedes, main the standings after three weekends.

Photograph by: Sona Maleterova / Getty Photographs

Jake Boxall-Legge: “I had Russell Leclerc, and Antonelli as my prime three, though not at the moment in the correct order; I perhaps thought Ferrari and Leclerc is likely to be nearer, and did not anticipate Antonelli to be difficult Russell fairly a lot (though Russell has had fairly a couple of points on his finish).

“Hamilton has been undersold, so I have never completed properly there – though it wasn’t totally clear on the time that he’d get right into a groove with the brand new vehicles. Verstappen, in the meantime, has a automotive that thus far hasn’t delivered; I slotted him between the McLaren drivers, however I would need to put him beneath the Mercedes, Ferrari, and McLaren drivers if we have been having one other go. Pierre Gasly and Ollie Bearman have been one of the best of the midfielders although, and I had them within the prime 10 – so I’m naturally (thus far) delighted with my new-found clairvoyance…” 

We would like your opinion!

– The Motorsport.com Staff