In 9 months, some cheerful younger participant who was drafted in 2026 will likely be standing on the stage on the NFL Honors receiving the award for Rookie of the 12 months. Actually, two will — offense and protection.
Instantly after final 12 months’s draft, I stacked my private board for each awards, with the eventual winners falling to fourth (Tetairoa McMillan) and sixth (Carson Schwesinger) on my lists. I am fairly proud of these outcomes for early Could guesstimates, as we do not even have coaching camp depth charts or preseason harm information but. Each awards comply with pretty constant bumper rails for voters, and as such, we will outline favorites and (cheap) sleepers from lengthy distance.
Listed below are my way-too-early rankings for Rookies of the 12 months candidates, cut up by offense and protection. I am going to undergo the probabilities after which give my remaining listing.
Soar to: OROY | DROY
Offensive Rookie of the 12 months
The favorites
Three ability place gamers left the board within the first 4 picks on Day 1: quarterback Fernando Mendoza (Raiders), working again Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) and huge receiver Carnell Tate (Titans). These are the clear huge favorites and the one three gamers I am going to talk about up prime right here.
We’re recent off a season through which a receiver gained Rookie of the 12 months, as Panthers’ first-round wideout McMillan produced 1,014 yards and 7 touchdowns in what was typically a down 12 months for OROY choices. Saints quarterback Tyler Shough completed behind McMillan in voting regardless of solely 9 begins, and had he performed 17 video games, the dialog would have been extra fascinating.
As a common rule, quarterbacks who begin nearly all of the season (and produce) win the award over spectacular seasons from non-quarterbacks. In 2023, Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud and Rams huge receiver Puka Nacua had glorious rookie seasons, however Nacua’s marketing campaign was legitimately record-setting, as his 105 receptions and 1,486 yards have been marks for rookie receivers. The yardage file had stood for 63 years earlier than Nacua broke it!
But Stroud did not simply win the award. He dominated Nacua, securing 48 of fifty first-place votes. Equally, in 2019, Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (with modest stats however 16 begins) beat out Raiders working again Josh Jacobs (with nice manufacturing however solely 13 video games) for the title. Figuring out early-season starters at quarterback is the quickest path to discovering Offensive Rookie of the 12 months favorites.
As such, Mendoza ought to lead this clubhouse. He does not want to begin in Week 1, because the Raiders signed a well-paid backup in Kirk Cousins this offseason. However Cousins’ tune at his introductory information convention was fairly mushy: “I do not need to begin except I am the most suitable choice. I instructed Klint [Kubiak] that the most effective participant ought to play.” I am prepared to financial institution on Mendoza’s lengthy runway of preparation for Kubiak’s offense — he has identified he was going to be a Raider since January — giving him an early leg up relative to most rookies.
The trail is there for Mendoza to be productive. The Raiders aren’t bereft of pass-catching choices. Brock Bowers is nearly as good of a decent finish as a younger passer can ask for, and there are worse receiving rooms than the Raiders’ providing of Tre Tucker and Jalen Nailor. The Raiders is perhaps run heavy with Ashton Jeanty and rookie fourth-rounder Mike Washington Jr. within the backfield, however keep in mind, it is all about begins and respectable play for ROTY quarterbacks. Run heaviness will not damage an excessive amount of.
Critically, a quarterback additionally does not must win video games to garner OROY love. Murray gained the award on a 5-10-1 Cardinals squad, whereas 2020 Justin Herbert led the Chargers to a 7-9 file. Any semi-respectable file (learn: not 3-14 once more) will let Mendoza qualify — and I feel the Raiders’ roster is lots able to such a season.
Ought to Mendoza’s rookie 12 months show disqualifying for any of various causes — harm, group collapse, a bunch of Cousins begins, Jeanty dashing for two,000 yards, and many others. — Tate and Love grow to be extra fascinating.
Receivers have been in as of late. McMillan was the third receiver to win the award previously 5 seasons (Jets’ Garrett Wilson in 2022 and Bengals’ Ja’Marr Chase in 2021), however he is solely the sixth wideout to win the award this century. Receivers have lately leapfrogged working backs because the non-quarterback contenders in Rookie of the 12 months voting — no again has gained Rookie of the 12 months since Saquon Barkley in 2018.
Can Tate have the season McMillan simply had? I am doubtful. Tate was not the first receiver at Ohio State and can now draw WR1 consideration within the NFL. I had a decrease grade on Tate popping out than I had on McMillan final 12 months, and I’ve extra esteem for Dave Canales calling performs in Carolina than I do for Brian Daboll in Tennessee. Plus, Daboll will likely be tempted to funnel targets to former Large Wan’Dale Robinson, a infamous high-volume slot receiver. The highway for Tate to climb is harder than McMillan’s was a 12 months in the past.
Then again, the fourth choose is the fourth choose. The Titans are telling us that they need Tate to supply closely. I am simply unsure I purchase the expertise stage relative to previous winners equivalent to Wilson and Chase.
Love looks as if an apparent favourite for Rookie of the 12 months, and I get it from a expertise perspective. He’s the earliest drafted working again since Barkley, who’s the newest working again winner. Barkley led the league in yards from scrimmage as a rookie, and whereas Love is unlikely to be that productive, he does have the receiving chops to be a dynamic three-down participant.
However we have seen extra receivers than working backs win the award recently due to the altering dynamic on the place. The league does not hammer one again with carries the best way it as soon as did. Barkley had 352 touches in that 2018 season, figuring out to 22.0 per sport. Within the seven seasons since, solely 10 backs have exceeded that quantity (minimal 14 video games performed), they usually have earned that form of utilization. The one rookie to exceed 2018 Barkley was 2021 Najee Harris with the Steelers (22.4 touches per sport). The following closest was 2020 James Robinson with the Jaguars (20.6 touches per sport), then 2025 Jeanty (18.9).
In fact, you do not want 22 touches per sport to win Offensive Rookie of the 12 months. Alvin Kamara did it on a measly 12.6 touches for the Saints in 2017, lower than beginning working again Mark Ingram II. Kamara reminds us that working again manufacturing is way more situational than quarterback and receiver manufacturing; it took a particular playcaller (Sean Payton) and a late-career Drew Brees sprinting to the checkdown to open the door for Kamara. A wager on Love for Rookie of the 12 months is a wager that he is nearer to Barkley (transcendently gifted, capable of produce on even a foul group) than he’s to Jeanty (extraordinarily gifted however nonetheless restricted by poor quarterback/offensive line play).
Love joins an offense captained by the unholy product of a Jacoby Brissett/Gardner Minshew II/Carson Beck camp battle and can run behind an offensive line that was twenty ninth in adjusted line yards final season (the FTN Fantasy stat for the way a lot an offensive line affected a group’s working sport. Enhancements have been made (signing guard Isaac Seumalo and hiring coach Mike LaFleur), however I am unwilling to purchase into any Cardinals offensive success this 12 months.
The lengthy pictures
Outdoors of the top-five picks, seven ability place gamers went within the first spherical. We are able to simply scratch QB Ty Simpson, who will likely be a backup in Los Angeles and can solely play if Matthew Stafford is injured. We are able to additionally scratch Kenyon Sadiq, since a decent finish has not gained the award since Mike Ditka in 1961, which was earlier than the AFL/NFL merger. I imply, Brock Bowers did not win it in 2024 (although he doubtless would have in a down quarterback 12 months). I will likely be happy to look extraordinarily silly within the occasion that Sadiq wins the award, as I like the participant. However will probably be legitimately unprecedented.
Listed below are the 5 remaining with my ideas on their legitimacy:
Jordyn Tyson, WR, Saints: WR2s do not sometimes win the award, and Tyson is unquestionably the WR2 behind Chris Olave. In fact, Olave has by no means performed a full 17-game season. And Tyson does have the expertise to go for a 1,000-yard season as long as he stays wholesome, which isn’t a assure. The Saints have been the fastest-paced NFL offense by a severe margin final season, so Tyson ought to see extra alternatives for compiling stats. I am intrigued however not able to commit.
3:34
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Makai Lemon, WR, Eagles: Lemon is the chief within the clubhouse for WR2 behind DeVonta Smith (assuming A.J. Brown is traded), nevertheless it’s powerful to really feel nice about his potential for drawing quantity on a run-heavy group such because the Eagles. Nonetheless, any harm to Smith will instantly put Lemon able for eight-plus (and even 10-plus) targets per sport, as there aren’t any incumbent veterans (save for Dallas Goedert) in his method. He goes from an afterthought to potential chief within the clubhouse ought to that domino fall.
KC Concepcion, WR, Browns: Here is our potential WR1. Concepcion has excessive quantity potential as a slot receiver and excessive explosive potential as a severe YAC athlete with tackle-breaking capacity. Browns coach Todd Monken figures to make use of Concepcion a lot as he used Zay Flowers in Baltimore, so Concepcion might see dashing manufacturing accordingly. Ought to the Browns discover themselves trailing usually, Concepcion will see a rise in quantity as nicely. I’d be all-in have been it not for my fears that the QB play will likely be debilitatingly poor.
Omar Cooper Jr., WR, Jets: The Jets traded up within the Spherical 1 to safe Cooper as their each down WR2 behind Garrett Wilson. He has nearly no incumbent problem as targets at receiver, as Adonai Mitchell is the most effective candidate to steal a few of his snaps. Nonetheless, the tight finish duo of Mason Taylor and Kenyon Sadiq, and the presence of working again Breece Corridor do put a damper on his anticipated quantity. Cooper is a tier under gamers equivalent to Concepcion and Lemon so far as expertise goes, and it is exhausting to see him producing the large video games essential to steal this award from a beginning quarterback or productive again.
Jadarian Value, RB, Seahawks: Value has a robust path to severe candidacy. The Seahawks cut up their backfield work between Zach Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker III final season, and their plan is prone to slide Value into Walker’s footwear. However Charbonnet tore an ACL within the divisional spherical of the playoffs, so he’ll be lower than eight months faraway from the harm when Week 1 hits. That provides Value a possibility to instantly wrest management as a 15- to 20-plus contact participant within the first month. Value was not a lot of a receiver at Notre Dame, however in Love’s shadow, his three-down potential was pretty untapped. On a Seahawks group that figures to guide many video games, he might accumulate second-half touches and put collectively a extremely productive marketing campaign.
The longer pictures
It’s definitely attainable to win Offensive Rookie of the 12 months from outdoors the primary spherical. Current such winners embody Kamara (2017), Dak Prescott (2016) and Eddie Lacy (2013). There is not actually a simple unifying thread between these late drafted winners (Anquan Boldin! Anthony Thomas! Randy Moss!) save for poor performances from the first-rounders. On this weak 2026 draft class, the window for a middle-round participant to emerge is cracked barely wider. In fact, the RB3 got here off the board at No. 91 — the most recent RB3 within the widespread draft period — in order that blade cuts each methods.
Just a few gamers chosen outdoors of Spherical 1 who I imagine have the most effective shot to win Rookie of the 12 months:
Denzel Boston, WR, Browns: As a lot as Concepcion has a very good likelihood to grow to be the WR1 in Cleveland, so does Boston, who was drafted 15 picks later. He has an even bigger physique (6-foot-4, 209 kilos) with a bigger catch radius, and that is perhaps higher suited to supply with the Browns’ quarterbacks of questionable accuracy.
Carson Beck, QB, Cardinals: I used to be not a Beck believer predraft, however there’s a path for him to be the Week 1 starter if he can beat out two profession backups in Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew II. If he does, he has a strong group of go catchers and a head coach stemming off the Sean McVay/Kyle Shanahan tree in Mike LaFleur. Manufacturing — even when it is composed solely of empty energy collected in trailing scripts — is not going to shock me for a 23-year-old with good level guard traits.
Antonio Williams, WR, Commanders: A schematic overhaul is underway in Washington, the place the previous Kliff Kingsbury faculty offense has been shed for a Ben Johnson-inspired system that will get below middle and hunts explosive performs off play-action. For that offense, which desperately wants a go catcher reverse Terry McLaurin, the entrance workplace handpicked Williams, considered one of my favourite gamers on this class. Williams has some Amon-Ra St. Brown to his sport since he is as powerful as nails, prepared to win downfield throws by way of contact and slippery in his routes. I’d not be stunned if he begins getting extra targets than McLaurin by season’s finish.
Drew Allar, QB, Steelers: To ensure that a middle-round quarterback to win Rookie of the 12 months, he have to be thrust right into a stunning season of full begins (assume 2016 Dak Prescott off the Tony Romo harm). On condition that Pittsburgh’s QB1 is predicted to be 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers, who has a 2023 Achilles tear on his résumé — he nonetheless has not dedicated to return for 2026 and will find yourself elsewhere regardless of the Steelers utilizing the UFA tender on him this week — Allar might have an avenue. Nonetheless, Allar have to be prepared for these begins.
My Offensive Rookie of the 12 months candidate rankings
If a participant isn’t included, it means they’ve zero likelihood of profitable the award. It merely is not going to occur. Don’t screenshot this.
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Fernando Mendoza
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Jeremiyah Love
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Carnell Tate
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Jadarian Value
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Jordyn Tyson
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KC Concepcion
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Makai Lemon
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Denzel Boston
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Omar Cooper Jr.
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Carson Beck
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Drew Allar
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Antonio Williams
Defensive Rookie of the 12 months
The favorites
Defensive Rookie of the 12 months is conveniently organized for prognosticators. Since 2000, 22 of the 26 winners (85%) have been first-round picks. The 4 gamers who did not go within the first spherical have been linebackers taken earlier than No. 40, together with final 12 months’s winner Carson Schwesinger. (The Browns took Schwesinger at No. 33 to begin Day 2, and he was my featured lengthy shot to win the award.)
Sadly, there have been no linebackers taken within the second spherical earlier than No. 40 this 12 months. We are able to stretch our constraints barely to suit three, perhaps 4, perhaps 5 linebackers on Day 2, and we are going to … once we get right down to the lengthy pictures.
In any other case, we’re constrained to the primary spherical. 13 defensive gamers have been chosen Thursday: two defensive tackles, 5 edge rushers, two linebackers (Arvell Reese is a linebacker right here since that’s what he’ll play with the New York Giants), three cornerbacks and a security. For as particular as Caleb Downs is, a security has not gained Defensive Rookie of the 12 months this century — they merely aren’t across the ball sufficient. Downs is a candidate to spend extra time within the slot given the wants of Dallas’ protection. I’m so tempted to maintain him alive on the listing, in that I imagine he is a spectacular participant … however by the cruel actuality of historical past, he have to be lower.
Of these 22 first-rounders who gained Defensive Rookie of the 12 months, 20 have been chosen within the first half of the primary spherical. Marcus Peters (No. 18 in 2015) bucked the development with an eight-interception season (two for touchdowns) and was voted to an All-Professional group. Jared Verse (No. 19 in 2024) was the opposite, however he was drafted in a historic class through which solely two defenders went within the first 16 picks. Whereas I will not exclude the again half of Thursday’s first spherical altogether as favorites, I’ll primarily give attention to 5 top-16 choices, excluding Downs.
David Bailey, Edge, Jets: The best drafted edge rusher with the best pass-rushing ceiling, Bailey is a simple candidate for the highest of the listing. His working mates on the sting (Will McDonald IV, Joseph Ossai and Kingsley Enagbare) are harmful sufficient that Bailey will not see disproportionate double-team charges. As a splashy go rusher with common run protection, he figures to save lots of his legs for premier rush downs, which is able to inflate stats like sack and stress charges. So long as the Jets aren’t all the time trailing and going through clock-chewing offenses, Bailey ought to produce eight-plus sacks.
Arvell Reese, LB, Giants: It is more durable for an off-ball linebacker to win this award than you may count on — solely three have since 2009, when Brian Cushing completed a four-year run of stack linebackers bringing residence the {hardware}. We merely worth go dashing excess of sort out assortment within the fashionable NFL … however that is perhaps excellent news for Reese, who figures to seize extra go rush reps (and sacks) than the common off-ball linebacker. The extra we be taught in regards to the Giants’ plan for him, the simpler he’ll be to foretell. Proper now, he is principally concept.
Mansoor Delane, CB, Chiefs: The Chiefs traded up within the first spherical to safe Delane, and he can have an unimpeded path to CB1 reps after they traded Trent McDuffie and let Jaylen Watson stroll in free company. Corners want manufacturing on the ball to win this award, and Delane will get examined as a rookie overlaying star receivers. He was fairly productive in faculty — 11 passes defensed in 11 video games throughout his remaining season. Cornerbacks do not win the award usually, however all three winners this century have been after 2014. It is exhausting to place Delane clearly above the sting rushers, however when corners win Rookie of the 12 months, they seem like this.
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Sonny Kinds, LB, Commanders: Bobby Wagner was a sort out vacuum for the Commanders, however can Kinds do the identical as he steps into his footwear? It is a towering activity, however Kinds additionally has the DB background and distinctive body (6-foot-4, 243 kilos) to make way more performs within the passing sport than the common beginning linebacker. Riddling out whether or not Kinds can get 100% of the snaps in Week 1, with Frankie Luvu and Leo Chenal additionally on the depth chart, is the important thing to defining simply how sturdy of a candidate he’s. However the mix of sort out manufacturing and go protection is perhaps an excessive amount of for voters to disregard.
Rueben Bain Jr., Edge, Buccaneers: Bain barely slips in under the brink, because the Bucs snagged him at No. 15. A professional-ready run defender who has little competitors on the depth chart, Bain is precisely the form of participant I search for as a Rookie of the 12 months candidate … save for one key situation. He is not a excessive sack participant. His quick arms and favored energy rush create numerous disruption, however except he lucks into some cleanup work, it is exhausting to think about Bain — who maxed out at 9.5 sacks in 16 video games final season — all of the sudden changing into a double-digit sack artist within the league. Nonetheless, he may need sufficient TFLs and superior stats to attract legit candidacy.
The lengthy pictures
From picks 16 to 32, six extra defensive gamers went. Once more, we will toss apart the protection — sorry, Dillon Thieneman — and give attention to the 5 remainders.
Caleb Banks, DT, Vikings: No defensive sort out has gained Rookie of the 12 months since Aaron Donald in 2014, and the one different sort out to do it this century was Ndamukong Suh. Banks is that form of expertise and an attractive wager accordingly. However he has a foot harm that is unimaginable to miss. He additionally performs in a Brian Flores protection that does not enable defensive tackles to play the form of unhinged, penetration-oriented model that results in sacks. Positive, the Vikings spent an early choose on Banks — however as head coach of the Dolphins in 2019, Flores used the No. 13 choose on Christian Wilkins, and he had two sacks as a rookie. It is exhausting to see the trail for Banks.
Akheem Mesidor, Edge, Chargers: Mesidor figures to be the Edge3 behind Khalil Mack and Tuli Tuipulotu. Maybe meaning he brings recent legs onto the sphere on pass-rush downs and accumulates sacks whereas that spectacular Chargers secondary forces quarterbacks to carry the ball. Nonetheless, the extra doubtless state of affairs is that the rotation limits too a lot of his alternatives. I am not shopping for it.
Malachi Lawrence, Edge, Cowboys: It is unclear simply what number of snaps Lawrence will get in Dallas, as second-year participant Donovan Ezeiruaku and commerce acquisition Rashan Gary additionally sit on the depth chart. However with new defensive coordinator Christian Parker, tons of snaps are up for grabs. Lawrence has elite explosive measurables and a greater path to each down alternatives than late drafted go rushers. He is the sleeper to circle.
Chris Johnson, CB, Dolphins: It could be so cool if, mired in what’s positive to be a horrible Dolphins season, Johnson snagged seven picks and gained Defensive Rookie of the 12 months. It is not unimaginable — Sauce Gardner gained it in 2022 on a 7-10 Jets squad. And Jeff Hafley’s Packers have been eighth in turnovers per defensive drive over his two years in Inexperienced Bay. I am not saying it is doubtless, however interceptions have numerous randomness to them, and there is no Myles Garrett or Will Anderson Jr. on this edge rusher class. The door is open.
Peter Woods, DT, Chiefs: I am prepared to get completely wild and draw a world through which Chris Jones attracts all of the double groups, Steve Spagnuolo continues to blitz at a excessive charge and Woods collects a ton of behind-the-line manufacturing as a cleanup man. It is by no means doubtless, however for many defensive tackles drafted at No. 29, I’d inform you there is no shot. Woods is a good penetrator, and the atmosphere is correct in Kansas Metropolis.
The longer pictures
As I mentioned above, the one gamers who will not be first-rounders to win Defensive Rookie of the 12 months this century have been linebackers chosen on the prime of Spherical 2. These have been Schwesinger (No. 33 in 2025), Shaquille Leonard (No. 36 in 2018), DeMeco Ryans (No. 33 in 2006) and Kendrell Bell (No. 39 in 2001).
No linebackers left the board within the 30s this 12 months, however 5 have been picked in Spherical 2. For the sake of argument, I am going to embody them right here so as of the place they have been picked:
Jacob Rodriguez, LB, Dolphins: Rodriguez is maybe probably the most Schwesinger-esque of the 5 Spherical 2 choices. Undersized (6-foot-1, 230 kilos) however with magnets to the ball, Rodriguez will likely be a enjoyable candidate in a special protection. However there merely will not be sufficient manufacturing to go round alongside All-Professional linebacker Jordyn Brooks. Linebackers must accumulate 100-plus tackles to win the award, and Brooks will beat Rodriguez to too many spots.
Josiah Trotter, LB, Buccaneers: Trotter runs into an identical situation to Rodriguez, as he performs subsequent to a high quality veteran in Alex Anzalone. However Anzalone is a free agent addition, and Trotter’s distinctive ability in faculty was his burst and unreal soccer instincts to create tackles at or close to the road of scrimmage. He is within the race for the award, particularly if he exhibits throughout camp that he can play quicker than the getting old Anzalone.
Jake Golday, LB, Vikings: Golday is an off-ball/on-ball tweener who will likely be caught behind established starters at each positions: Andrew Van Ginkel and Dallas Turner at outdoors linebacker; Eric Wilson and Blake Cashman at inside linebacker. He’ll undoubtedly have flashy performs in subpackages, however he merely is not going to see sufficient snaps — barring harm — to contend for this award.
CJ Allen, LB, Colts: Here is the participant who might actually win it. Allen is the unquestioned LB1 in Indianapolis, was a prolific tackler at Georgia and was drafted by the identical GM (Chris Ballard) who snagged 2018 Defensive Rookie of the 12 months winner Shaq Leonard — a linebacker in Spherical 2. Coordinator Lou Anarumo’s protection was nice for Logan Wilson (4 straight seasons of 100-plus tackles), and Allen has a robust soccer IQ to succeed inside it. Nice match, nice alternative.
Anthony Hill Jr., LB, Titans: We’re nicely into uncharted territory now. It is tempting to say Hill — a high-ceiling however nonetheless uncooked prospect — is definite to begin over incumbents Cedric Grey and Cody Barton. I’d name it doubtless however not assured, and as such, we have stretched too skinny my tolerance for eliminating historic precedent. Hill merely is not assured the snaps essential to be a robust preseason candidate for Rookie of the 12 months. Examine again in coaching camp.
My Defensive Rookie of the 12 months candidate rankings
Whereas the historical past of winners is extra restrictive, protection will also be fairly random. If Jermod McCoy performs a totally wholesome season for the Raiders and catches six picks, so be it.
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David Bailey
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Rueben Bain Jr.
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Mansoor Delane
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Sonny Kinds
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Arvell Reese
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CJ Allen
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Malachi Lawrence
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Akheem Mesidor
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Chris Johnson
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Caleb Banks
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Peter Woods
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Josiah Trotter
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Jacob Rodriguez
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Anthony Hill Jr.
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Jake Golday
