A brand new fantasy soccer season is upon us and — should you tuned out after February’s Tremendous Bowl — you may have quite a lot of catching as much as do.
The 2025 NFL offseason had a flurry of motion that may convey huge adjustments to this season’s fantasy panorama. There is a new wave of rookie operating backs (led by potential first-round fantasy decide Ashton Jeanty), Davante Adams teamed up with Matthew Stafford in Los Angeles, Derek Carr all of a sudden retired and a number of other notable quarterbacks discovered new houses, together with Justin Fields, Geno Smith, Sam Darnold, Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson.
This preliminary installment of The Playbook takes a radical, position-by-position take a look at that panorama and presents recommendation and knowledge that may assist you to make sound selections on draft day. The main focus will likely be on average-sized, redraft leagues, however I did not neglect the extra nuanced leagues, together with dynasty, keeper, superflex and greatest ball, which quickly will likely be coated in Half 2 of The Playbook.
The Playbook is a technique piece for freshmen and superior gamers that reveals you ways I apply all that I’ve realized throughout my a few years as a fantasy participant and an offseason of analysis. I initially printed a model of this sequence in 2021, however it’s a residing piece that I replace considerably every year.
State of the Positions
Quarterback: The Huge 4
Final season, Lamar Jackson (25.3), Josh Allen (22.3), Jalen Hurts (21.0) and Jayden Daniels (20.9) completed among the many high 6 quarterbacks in fantasy factors per recreation. These 4 are the clear-cut high 4 fantasy QBs in 2025, and my objective on draft day is to amass any one of many 4. The explanation these 4 make the reduce and Joe Burrow (21.9) and Baker Mayfield (21.5) don’t is easy: dashing capacity. Burrow and Mayfield mixed for 579 yards and 5 TDs on the bottom final season; the “Huge 4” averaged 741.8 yards and 9 TDs (not one of the 4 had fewer than 531 yards or six TDs).
The quarterback place has developed to the place large passing numbers aren’t sufficient — these guys should be nothing in need of elite in that class to maintain up with the true dual-threat quarterbacks. Burrow and Mayfield run a bit, however each wanted 40-plus passing TDs to hold with the Huge 4 final season. Is that repeatable? Contemplating solely seven QBs in league historical past have reached 40 passing TDs greater than as soon as (none has performed it greater than thrice), it appears unlikely.
Burrow and Mayfield nonetheless have excellent outlooks, so although I do not view them as elite, they’re nonetheless strong, midrange QB1 choices. They usually’re not alone. Patrick Mahomes, Bo Nix, Kyler Murray and Brock Purdy are additionally in that dialog, together with extra fringe QB1s equivalent to Caleb Williams, Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott and dual-threat Justin Fields … oh, and breakout candidates equivalent to Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy, Cameron Ward and Michael Penix Jr.
These gamers aren’t fairly the identical difference-makers because the Huge 4, which is why, in contrast to in some years, I am keen to spend up on a quarterback in 2025. “Spending up” on this case will typically price a third- or fourth-round decide, which is not as costly as years in the past when famous person QBs like Allen can be a first-round decide in all fantasy leagues. The business has wised up in that division, and informal drafters have caught on as nicely, which is why Allen, Jackson, Daniels and Hurts are palatable at their present draft price.
Takeaway: There’s a notable drop-off after the Huge 4, so should you miss out on certainly one of them, do not be afraid to attend fairly some time earlier than addressing your quarterback slot.
Working again: Spend up or go younger?
Extensive receiver has change into the precedence place in fantasy soccer, however hitting on affect operating backs stays extraordinarily necessary. As talked about earlier, the deep 2025 rookie RB class is more likely to make a large affect this season, and we additionally would possibly see the top for a number of ageing backs.
The typical age of a top-15 fantasy operating again (by scoring) the previous 5 years is 25.1, as excessive as 25.9 in 2022 and as little as 24.1 in 2020. Solely seven of the 75 RBs (9.3%) have been 29 or older to start the season; 9, if we embody 28-year-olds. Though greater than half of the exceptions got here in 2024 (Derrick Henry fourth, Alvin Kamara ninth, James Conner eleventh, Aaron Jones Sr. fifteenth), it is attainable (possibly possible) we see a return to earth in 2025.
Why are these age stats notable? Christian McCaffrey (29), Joe Mixon (29), Conner (30), Henry (31), Kamara (30) and Jones (30) are all being chosen within the early rounds, and every is getting into his age-29 season or older. And that does not embody Saquon Barkley, who’s 28 years previous and coming off a season wherein he racked up 482 touches throughout 20 video games, together with the playoffs.
Can we nonetheless depend on these veterans who’ve confirmed elite/dependable over the previous half-decade and stay positioned for giant workloads, or ought to we anticipate a regression in manufacturing, and lean into youth? Final season, concentrating on younger backs was largely profitable, as Bijan Robinson (now 23 years previous), Kyren Williams (25), Jahmyr Gibbs (23), James Prepare dinner (25) and De’Von Achane (23) labored out nice. This yr, we are able to add Bucky Irving (23), Kenneth Walker III (24), Chase Brown (25) and Breece Corridor (24) to the checklist of 25-and-younger backs who might leap into, (or again into) the weekly RB1 combine … and that does not embody a loaded rookie class led by Jeanty (21), Omarion Hampton (22), Quinshon Judkins (21), RJ Harvey (24), TreVeyon Henderson (22), Kaleb Johnson (22) and Cam Skattebo (23), all who might play sizable roles instantly.
Many of those younger backs are viable draft targets should you subscribe to some model of the “Zero RB” technique, a drafting philosophy that includes not choosing a operating again early, as an alternative loading up on broad receivers (and maybe an elite tight finish or quarterback) within the first a number of rounds. Then, when high backs inevitably get injured, your opponents’ rosters worsen and you should utilize your stashed backs and waivers to fill your RB slots, providing you with an edge on the sector.
It is a really helpful technique should you’re set on avoiding the older/overworked backs and as an alternative targeted on eyeing younger backs within the center rounds. However should you spend none or certainly one of your first 5 or so picks on a operating again, you possible will enter the season with an uneasy feeling at RB2. With the well-documented excessive harm price on the place, it is greater than possible you will fill that spot with a middle-round decide within the quick time period and a bench stash or waiver add later within the yr.
Takeaway: Take an elite again early should you can, however do not push it if the worth is not there. Be at liberty to assault the opposite positions early and throw darts on values and rising-star RBs within the center rounds.
Extensive receiver: A couple of superstars and one million WR3s
Extensive receiver has developed right into a little bit of a top-heavy place, with a brief checklist that features Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Puka Nacua, Malik Nabers and Amon-Ra St. Brown main the best way. Every receiver is assured a hefty goal share and is more likely to price you a first-round decide in 12-team leagues.
Issues get trickier from there. Groups are using three-plus broad receiver units at a hefty price (73% of move performs in 2024) as a result of the place is so sturdy throughout the league, and so they’re spreading the ball round to appease the expertise. There are different respectable choices on your WR1 slot, together with Nico Collins, Brian Thomas Jr., A.J. Brown and Drake London, nevertheless it will get a bit dangerous after that as a result of there’s not an enormous drop-off on the place from that time.
Tyreek Hill looks as if a great post-hype goal, however will he rebound at age 31? How will Davante Adams fare at 32 years previous in Los Angeles? Rashee Rice just isn’t solely going through league self-discipline but in addition, is there sufficient room for him and Xavier Worthy to thrive in Kansas Metropolis? How will Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp jell with Sam Darnold in Seattle? Will Marvin Harrison Jr. and Rome Odunze make a 12 months 2 leap? Will Mike Evans (32) and Chris Godwin (harm concern) have one other large season? Can Garrett Wilson attain his ceiling with Justin Fields beneath heart? How will DK Metcalf and Aaron Rodgers fare collectively? Can Jerry Jeudy overcome the Browns’ QB questions?
There are quite a lot of robust questions in that paragraph, and that is solely a partial checklist of gamers to contemplate within the early-to-middle rounds. The excellent news is that every one of those receivers are anticipated to supply starting-caliber manufacturing, however they’re all very shut in worth, which implies you possibly can monitor your draft’s development and benefit from some very giant tiers of comparable gamers. There’s a lot uncertainty and depth that you will be spending late-round picks on gamers who might simply be within the WR3 combine as early as Week 1. For instance, veterans Kupp, Stefon Diggs, Michael Pittman Jr. and potential breakout gamers Matthew Golden, Ricky Pearsall and Keon Coleman will be had after Spherical 7 in lots of 12-team leagues.
With broad receiver so deep, how can we kind by the congestion and correctly determine which gamers to focus on?
Over the previous 5 seasons, 43 of the highest 50 broad receivers (86%) in fantasy factors per recreation have been chosen within the first three rounds of the NFL draft (23 have been first-rounders and solely two have been undrafted). Throughout that span, 121 of the 150 top-30 WR fantasy campaigns (80%) have come from a participant chosen through the first three rounds. Just one (Jauan Jennings in 2024) got here from a participant chosen in Spherical 6 or 7.
Solely 32 of the 324 broad receivers (10%) picked within the NFL draft from 2015 to 2024 completed as a top-35 fantasy WR as a rookie (six completed within the high 12). Of these 32, solely three (Nacua, Hill, St. Brown) have been picked after the third spherical. Exceptions occur, however historical past tells us to keep away from reaching on gamers with low hit charges and deal with these taken with early-round NFL draft picks.
We also needs to deal with second-year receivers who have been good as rookies. Since 2000, 30 of 42 WRs (71%) who completed within the high 30 in fantasy factors as a rookie repeated as a top-30 WR in 12 months 2. With accidents so distinguished within the NFL, that could be a shockingly excessive hit price and price our consideration. Final season, Harrison, Thomas, Nabers and Ladd McConkey have been top-30 finishers, with Worthy (thirty third) simply lacking the reduce. Historical past says most of them will repeat their success in 2025.
Alternatively, I did some analysis to find out if it was worthwhile to focus on post-hype, second-year receivers who struggled as rookies. It is determined by simply how a lot they struggled. The magic quantity appears to be 90, as in, if a large receiver didn’t end within the high 90 on the place in fantasy factors as a rookie, you possibly can all however throw within the towel.
Fifty of the 133 WRs (38%) taken in Rounds 1-3 of the NFL draft from 2014 to 2023 completed worse than ninetieth in broad receiver fantasy factors as rookies. Solely 5 of the 50 had a single top-30 season: Nelson Agholor, Jameson Williams, Curtis Samuel, Mike Williams and DJ Chark Jr. None managed a top-10 marketing campaign, and solely Mike Williams and Chark cracked the highest 20. Mike Williams is the largest success story from the group to this point, and it took him till his fifth season to crack the highest 30. So long as you are considerably competent as a rookie, you may have a shot at success. In the event you’re all however a nonfactor, you are possible a misplaced trigger.
We noticed an instance of this final season, as this identical column warned you to keep away from 2023 Spherical 1-3 WRs who struggled as rookies. Jalin Hyatt, Cedric Tillman, Jonathan Mingo, Tre Tucker and Marvin Mims Jr. have been all exterior the highest 80 as rookies and, although Tillman flashed for a minute, the very best end by the group in 2024 was Mims’ 57th.
So, who does this research recommend we keep away from in 2025? Adonai Mitchell (112th), Luke McCaffrey (127th), Ja’Lynn Polk (129th), Jermaine Burton (154th), Malachi Corley (a hundred and ninetieth) and Roman Wilson (216th) comprise the checklist of 2024 receivers taken in Rounds 1-3 who completed their rookie season exterior the highest 90 receivers in fantasy factors. Historical past tells us that, although possibly certainly one of these guys will make a leap, it is impossible, so we should not make investments a lot in them. As an alternative, we are able to deal with high-potential rookies or post-hype, second-year gamers who no less than confirmed some flashes in 12 months 1. Gamers who match that invoice embody Thomas, Nabers, McConkey, Harrison, Worthy, Odunze, Coleman, Pearsall, Jalen McMillan and Xavier Legette.
Takeaway: Ideally, you are grabbing a star receiver early, however the place is deep with veteran expertise and a robust corps of proficient younger stars, so there is no have to power issues. Relating to early-career sleepers and breakouts, historical past reveals that draft place issues. NFL scouts do a fairly good job of figuring out the high-ceiling guys, so, for probably the most half, belief their work.
Tight finish: A great yr to spend up
Annually, it looks as if tight finish will lastly be a deep place filled with viable starters … and every year, the place lets us down. This season, I like to recommend attacking the place comparatively early, maybe even spending an early decide on Brock Bowers or Trey McBride.
The highest two scoring tight ends from 2024 weren’t solely good at their place, however they have been good when stacked up in opposition to high broad receivers (if we mix the 2 positions, Bowers ranked ninth in factors and McBride twelfth). That is greater than sufficient justification to contemplate the tight ends within the second or third spherical of your draft.
The one factor stopping me from pouncing on both is George Kittle’s availability a spherical or two later (Kittle’s 15.8 PPG final season was higher than Bowers’ 15.5 and McBride’s 15.6). And, if I miss on any of these three, Sam LaPorta within the sixth-round vary can be palatable, and maybe T.J. Hockenson a spherical later.
After that? Main questions. David Njoku has QB considerations, Travis Kelce, 35, has extra goal competitors, Mark Andrews noticed an enormous goal dip final season, Evan Engram is with Denver, Jonnu Smith was traded to Pittsburgh, which already has Pat Freiermuth, Dallas Goedert (who additionally has sturdiness considerations) has been the topic of commerce rumors, and Dalton Kincaid and Kyle Pitts have not lived as much as their first-round expectations.
I like to recommend avoiding that mess. If not, there’s not a lot sense in prioritizing the place early in your draft, particularly as a result of I did not point out different, equally valued tight ends equivalent to Tucker Kraft and rookies Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren.
Takeaway: That is the yr to prioritize touchdown an elite tight finish. In the event you miss out on the highest tier or two, it is quite a lot of the identical, so there’s not a lot sense in drafting one till the middle-to-late rounds.
D/ST: Similar as normal
In the event you’re not streamin’, you are not strivin’. Or one thing like that. You know the way you barely modify expectations on your offensive starters primarily based on the defensive matchup? That logic needs to be utilized to your D/ST selections. It is extra concerning the offense than the protection. Stream defenses in plus matchups and revenue.
Kicker: Ditto
Daniel Carlson completed as fantasy’s high kicker in 2021 and 2022. Did that persuade you to achieve for him a bit in your 2023 draft? If that’s the case, you had with fantasy’s No. 24 kicker. Earlier than Carlson’s streak, the final No. 1-scoring kicker to complete within the high 10 the next season was Matt Bryant in 2017. Brandon Aubrey (a top-2 scorer every of the previous two seasons) cannot be trusted, nor can reigning No. 1 fantasy kicker Chris Boswell, whose previous 5 season finishes are first, seventeenth, thirty first, fourth and twenty fifth. Do not draft a kicker earlier than the ultimate spherical. Actually, do not decide one except compelled to (you possibly can all the time add one simply previous to Week 1 kickoff).
Draft technique
It’s best to have a fairly good really feel for the 2025 fantasy soccer participant pool, so let’s perform a little housecleaning earlier than we head off to the draft room.
Early rounds
Exterior of “give me a great sleeper,” the query I am requested most frequently is, “What ought to I do with my first decide?”
I already mentioned some sleeper methods, so let’s deal with the latter. Up to now, operating backs dominated the primary spherical, with just a few broad receivers and, at occasions, even quarterbacks part of the dialog. Nevertheless, the mix of the excessive harm price at operating again, the depth at quarterback and the constant manufacturing of some elite receivers has closed the hole over the previous decade. Extensive receiver is usually the popular and most secure place in Spherical 1, with some subscribing to a model of the aforementioned “Zero RB” technique.
So, do you comply with the pattern and keep away from RBs early or acquire an edge by stacking a pair of RB1s along with your first two picks? It considerably is determined by the place you are drafting within the first spherical, however the easiest way to maximise your lineup would require flexibility and fast pondering.
In case you have the primary decide this yr, the correct reply is to pick Chase. Will he repeat his historic 2024 marketing campaign? In all probability not, however he nonetheless can be nicely price that price ticket. After Chase, I am going with Robinson, nevertheless it’s undoubtedly seller’s selection at this level. WRs Jefferson, Lamb, Nacua, Nabers and St. Brown are glorious targets, as are RBs Barkley, Gibbs, McCaffrey and maybe Achane and Jeanty. This is not all the time the case, however there is no incorrect reply to “RB or WR within the first spherical?” this yr. Elite, high-volume backs are so exhausting to seek out, however broad receiver arguably dries up even faster this yr, which makes the highest choices extra interesting.
As for selecting a draft slot (should you get the selection), intention for the earliest decide, and that applies this yr, too. I can draft an elite participant with my first decide and nonetheless land one other pair of stars on the Spherical 2/3 flip. That checklist of gamers contains Kyren Williams, Prepare dinner, Bowers, McBride, London, Tee Higgins and McConkey. I will take that each time, particularly as a result of the later phases of the third spherical aren’t fairly as interesting.
Center rounds
That covers the primary few rounds, however what about the remaining? Throughout my draft, I am protecting observe of whom I’ve picked and which positions want filling, however I am by no means passing on an apparent worth, even when it is not a place of want. Hardly ever do I full a draft wherein there wasn’t a participant who plummeted nicely past his ADP, and I anxiously awaited my alternative to pounce. (How brutal is it when that participant is chosen proper earlier than you are on the clock?!?)
Passing on worth is an apparent recipe for catastrophe over the long run, however many do it. There are all the time gamers — assume peak Robert Woods, Tyler Lockett, Brandin Cooks, Adam Thielen, Jarvis Landry, Eric Decker, Derrick Mason, Pierre Garcon, Golden Tate, Alshon Jeffery and Julian Edelman — who persistently fell too far in drafts and sometimes proved strong values. These gamers aren’t new or younger or thrilling, however I’ve all the time feasted on them. You do not want a house run with each decide to win the title. It’s good to attain the playoffs first and, from there, you want a reliable lineup and a few luck. To realize each, having a few dependable starters (equivalent to Courtland Sutton and Jakobi Meyers) is essential.
Here is one thing else to consider: We do not totally acknowledge as an business how completely different our lineups look within the playoffs than getting into Week 1. I can recall a championship-winning group in an FSGA business league that included ZERO operating backs that I drafted. And that is why focusing an excessive amount of on filling out an ideal lineup on draft day is not as necessary as accumulating the very best expertise attainable. The place is the road? You will comprehend it once you see it (aka when guys equivalent to Sutton and Meyers are staring you within the face).
Name me a value-based drafter. Name me conservative. I do not care. I am pleased so long as you possibly can’t name me somebody who’s giving an edge to my opponents.
The underside line: Relating to your fantasy soccer draft, know your league settings, have a great set of rankings/tiers, pay attention to ADP and do not move on apparent values. In 2025, I am not sweating operating again vs. broad receiver within the first couple of rounds. I am selecting the very best obtainable pair of gamers with these first two picks (two RBs or two WRs is okay if the board requires it) after which the door opens in any respect 4 positions, whether or not it is loading up at RB and WR, grabbing a “Huge 4” quarterback or pouncing on an elite tight finish equivalent to Bowers, McBride or maybe Kittle. As soon as your beginning lineup seems to be good, deal with values and potential league-winning gamers, utilizing the above methods to determine the very best targets. When all is alleged and performed (and assuming you proceed to handle your group all through the season), you will be well-positioned for a run at your league championship.
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