Welcome to The Playbook for Week 2, which kicked off Thursday with the Commanders on the Packers.
This column options rating projections, over/unders, win chances, and, in fact, simply digestible fantasy recommendation for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This information ought to aid you with all types of decision-making, together with sit/begin choices, last-minute waiver provides and lineup decisions.
Moreover, we’ve folded the Shadow Reviews, beforehand a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns beneath. Utilizing our play-by-play information, we’re in a position to determine defensive schemes and the place every extensive receiver and cornerback traces up on every play. By monitoring these WR/CB matchups, together with potential shadow conditions, we will provide the most effective projections, rankings, sit/begin recommendation and waiver wire strategies every week.
All of this recommendation is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with comparatively commonplace scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 Ok, 1 D/ST), though I will usually point out “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts present all gamers who’ve been projected for at the least 6.0 fantasy factors this week, in addition to all D/STs. “Matchup” is routinely decided utilizing a proprietary metric that components in uncooked and volume-adjusted fantasy factors allowed to every place by the opposing protection this season.
(Editor’s notice: Projections and rankings will align nearly completely, however typically when a projection is shut, a participant is likely to be ranked barely increased or decrease due to different components, together with upside or danger. This column is topic to updates in the course of the weekend, though on the very minimal, rankings can be up to date on the location and projections will at all times be up to date inside the sport main as much as kickoff.)
CLE-BAL | JAX-CIN | NYG-DAL | CHI-DET | NE-MIA | SF-NO | BUF-NYJ
SEA-PIT | LAR-TEN | CAR-ARI | DEN-IND | PHI-KC | ATL-MIN | TB-HOU | LAC-LV
Projected rating: Bengals 28, Jaguars 22
Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter, Tee Higgins
Fantasy scoop: The Jaguars’ RB image is a bit clearer after the group traded Tank Bigsby to the Eagles on Monday. Week 1 noticed Jacksonville deploy 4 backs, with Travis Etienne (16 carries and three targets on 39 snaps) the clear chief and Bigsby (5 carries on 12 snaps), LeQuint Allen (one carry and one goal on 9 snaps) and Bhayshul Tuten (three carries on 4 snaps) additionally concerned. With Bigsby gone, the group will lean on the opposite three, with Etienne the clear prime possibility … for now. Allen can be a think about passing conditions (he ran solely 4 fewer routes than Etienne) and Tuten is positioned for extra change-of-pace carries. Etienne confirmed effectively towards a shaky Carolina protection within the opener and is a viable flex possibility this week. However ought to Etienne’s effectivity dip, Tuten can be a candidate for a bigger position. The rookie stays a positive end-of-bench stash.
Fantasy scoop: Hunter was quiet in his NFL debut (33 yards), however there’s excellent news: The No. 2 choose was on the sector for 30 of the group’s 33 go performs and led Jacksonville in targets (six) and catches (six). Hunter, who was restricted to 6 snaps on protection, is unlikely to take care of a 28% goal share, however even when he is nearer to twenty% to 25%, he is wager for constant WR2-3 manufacturing. He needs to be locked into lineups this week towards a shaky Bengals protection.
Over/beneath: 49.2 (fourth highest)
Win likelihood: Bengals 71% (third highest)
Projected rating: Cowboys 24, Giants 21
Lineup locks: CeeDee Lamb, Malik Nabers
Fantasy scoop: Javonte Williams was Dallas’ clear characteristic again in Week 1, taking part in 80% of the offensive snaps and totaling 15 carries and three targets. Williams was not overly efficient (3.6 yards per carry, 3.3 yards per goal) however bailed out those that began him in fantasy with a pair of brief landing runs. Williams’ heavy utilization is sufficient to place him as a fringe RB2 this week towards a New York protection that gave up 164 yards to Washington’s RBs in Week 1. But when Williams’ effectivity would not enhance, it is doubtless that Miles Sanders (50 yards on 5 touches in Week 1) and rookie Jaydon Blue (inactive) will chip away at his workload.
Shadow Report: Count on Trevon Diggs to shadow Nabers in Week 2. Diggs was restricted in his return in Week 1, however when he was on the sector, he shadowed A.J. Brown on six of 9 protection snaps. Moreover, Dallas selected to shadow Nabers in each 2024 matchups, with Diggs touring with him in Week 4 and DaRon Bland following him in Week 13 (Diggs was out). Nabers was productive in each video games, totaling 23.1 fantasy factors and 14.9 factors, respectively. He can, in fact, be began with confidence, and Darius Slayton needs to be thought of a Week 2 sleeper towards Kaiir Elam.
Over/beneath: 44.7 (twelfth highest)
Win likelihood: Cowboys 62% (eleventh highest)
Projected rating: Lions 27, Bears 22
Lineup locks: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Sam LaPorta
Fantasy scoop: Week 1 gave us our first take a look at Ben Johnson’s model of the Chicago offense, and, at the least within the brief time period, it was excellent news for Odunze and unhealthy information for Colston Loveland. Odunze paced the Bears’ extensive receiver room in snaps (59), routes (34) and targets (9). Lots of the appears got here within the brief space (7.6 aDOT) and restricted him to 37 yards, however the second-year-receiver did discover the top zone, and his 26% goal share is definitely sustainable transferring ahead. Odunze needs to be in lineups as a WR3 this week. Loveland, then again, was out-snapped 57-35 and out-targeted 4-2 by Cole Kmet. The rookie was on the sector for less than 22 of the group’s 43 go performs (in comparison with 37 for Kmet), which is not sufficient to offer TE1 fantasy numbers. Loveland needs to be stashed on benches till his taking part in time will increase.
Over/beneath: 48.1 (fifth highest)
Win likelihood: Lions 68% (seventh highest)
Projected rating: Rams 26, Titans 20
Lineup locks: Kyren Williams, Tony Pollard, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Calvin Ridley
Fantasy scoop: Pollard was a transparent characteristic again in Week 1, which was hardly a shock with operating mate Tyjae Spears (IR) sidelined. Pollard performed an enormous 89% of the group’s 55 offensive snaps. He dealt with 18 of the group’s 20 RB carries and, although he was focused solely as soon as, was on the sector for 31 of 34 go performs. With Julius Chestnut (six snaps final week) and Kalel Mullings (zero) his solely competitors for work, Pollard is a powerful wager to push for 20 touches once more this week. He ought to in lineups as a stable, low-ceiling RB2.
Over/beneath: 45.6 (eighth highest)
Win likelihood: Rams 71% (fourth highest)
Projected rating: Patriots 23, Dolphins 23
Lineup locks: De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill
Fantasy scoop: The Patriots’ operating again deployment was a bit completely different than anticipated in Week 1, with Rhamondre Stevenson main in snaps (45), routes (21) and carries (seven), in comparison with TreVeyon Henderson’s 23 snaps, 17 routes and 5 carries. Although he ran fewer routes, Henderson held an edge in targets (six to 4) and was considerably extra productive (51 yards on 11 touches, in comparison with 27 yards on 9 touches for Stevenson). It is doubtless that Henderson’s position will enhance in time, however the restricted utilization as a rusher is sufficient to knock him all the way down to the RB2/flex fringe. Stevenson, in the meantime, is a low-ceiling flex possibility.
Over/beneath: 46.1 (sixth highest)
Win likelihood: Patriots 50% (sixteenth highest)
Projected rating: 49ers 25, Saints 19
Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Ricky Pearsall
Fantasy scoop: George Kittle (hamstring, IR) is sidelined for at the least 4 weeks, which opens the door for Jake Tonges and Luke Farrell to deal with tight ends duties for the 49ers. As soon as Kittle departed Sunday’s recreation, Tonges ran 15 routes, in comparison with 12 for Farrell. Tonges caught a landing go and the duo mixed for 19 yards on 4 targets. Neither is a really useful fantasy begin towards the Saints, however the goal shares of Pearsall (a lineup lock following a powerful Week 1) and Jauan Jennings stand to learn. In fact, with Brock Purdy sidelined, each have added danger. Pearsall is greatest valued as a WR3 and Jennings (if he is in a position to play) a flex.
Fantasy scoop: The Saints tried to be fantasy pleasant in Week 1, force-feeding passes to Chris Olave (13 targets), Juwan Johnson (11) and Rashid Shaheed (9). The unhealthy information is that these 33 targets resulted in a complete of 163 yards and 0 touchdowns on 21 receptions. Johnson has been increase/bust all through his time in New Orleans, although he now has 12-plus fantasy factors in three straight video games and 5 of his previous eight relationship to final season. He is TE2 and a reputation to look at. Olave and Shaheed are on the flex radar however can be onerous to belief with maybe the league’s shakiest quarterback (Spencer Rattler) beneath middle.
Over/beneath: 44.4 (thirteenth highest)
Win likelihood: 49ers 69% (sixth highest)
Projected rating: Payments 28, Jets 22
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Justin Fields, James Prepare dinner, Breece Corridor, Garrett Wilson
Shadow Report: For the primary time in his professional profession, Sauce Gardner shadowed on a full-time foundation in Week 1. New York’s prime nook traveled with DK Metcalf on 29 of his 32 routes (29 of 29 perimeter) and helped restrict him to 12.3 fantasy factors. This week, there is a cheap likelihood that Gardner will journey with Keon Coleman, who established himself as Allen’s prime perimeter goal within the opener. Gardner’s robust displaying in Week 1 suggests we must always count on a regression for Coleman. He is greatest valued as a WR3/flex.
Shadow Report: Wilson can count on shadow protection from Christian Benford this week. Buffalo selected to shadow the Jets’ prime goal in each 2024 video games, placing Benford on him in Week 6 and, with Benford dealing with Davante Adams, placing Rasul Douglas on him in Week 17. Wilson delivered an 8-107-1 receiving line on 10 targets within the first recreation and 7-66-1 on eight targets within the latter. Wilson clearly fared effectively, and, particularly after Buffalo struggled to cease Baltimore’s receivers within the opener, his Week 2 outlook seems promising.
Over/beneath: 49.5 (third highest)
Win likelihood: Payments 73% (second highest)
Projected rating: Steelers 22, Seahawks 18
Lineup locks: Jaylen Warren, DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Fantasy scoop: Those that drafted Kenneth Walker III had their worst fears realized in Week 1 because it was Zach Charbonnet who led the Seattle backfield. Whereas Walker was restricted to 10 carries and three targets on 20 snaps, Charbonnet soaked up 12 carries on 29 snaps (he wasn’t focused, however ran yet one more route than Walker). It is potential Walker (who began) will reclaim lead again duties, however that is removed from a assure, particularly after he was held to 24 yards on 13 touches, in comparison with Charbonnet’s 47 yards and one TD on 12 touches. Each backs can be onerous to belief this week and make for fringe flex performs towards a Steelers protection that’s anticipated to be one of many league’s greatest regardless of a gradual begin.
Shadow Report: Riq Woolen shadowed Ricky Pearsall within the opener, and we will count on him to comply with ex-teammate Metcalf in Week 2. Pearsall had little hassle towards Woolen (he produced 108 yards on six targets), so Metcalf could be began with confidence.
Over/beneath: 39.7 (sixteenth highest)
Win likelihood: Steelers 66% (eighth highest)
Projected rating: Ravens 29, Browns 16
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Jerry Jeudy, Zay Flowers, David Njoku
Fantasy scoop: One of many large surprises of Week 1 was the Browns’ operating again deployment. Jerome Ford paced the backfield in snaps (37) however barely touched the ball (six carries, one goal). Fourth-round rookie Dylan Sampson, in the meantime, soaked up 12 carries and eight targets on 32 snaps. Bizarrely, Ford was out-targeted 8-1 regardless of working as the popular passing down again (24-16 edge in routes). Sampson’s fast emergence is sufficient to squash Ford’s sliver of fantasy attraction, however the place this will get difficult is that if Quinshon Judkins returns this week. If the second-round rookie performs (and even when he is restricted to some extent), this backfield can be greatest prevented. But when he stays out, Sampson can be a viable flex possibility. As soon as Judkins is up to the mark, he is prone to work because the clear lead rusher, particularly after Browns RBs totaled 40 yards on 21 carries within the opener.
Over/beneath: 45.2 (eleventh highest)
Win likelihood: Ravens 89% (highest)
Projected rating: Broncos 21, Colts 21
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Courtland Sutton, Tyler Warren
Fantasy scoop: The Broncos’ Week 1 RB utilization was as follows: J.Ok. Dobbins dealt with 16 carries and two targets on 37 snaps, in comparison with six carries and one goal on 22 snaps for RJ Harvey and 0 carries and 6 targets on 12 snaps for Tyler Badie. Harvey truly led the unit in yards (69), however Dobbins’ big edge in touches (18, in comparison with a mixed 9 for Harvey and Badie) offers the veteran the sting in fantasy in the intervening time. Dobbins, who scored within the opener, is a deep league flex possibility, whereas Harvey needs to be stashed on benches till he sees an expanded position. Badie is a candidate for much less work transferring ahead after catching two of six targets for 16 yards.
Shadow Report: Frightened about Pat Surtain II shadowing Michael Pittman Jr. this week? It is potential, particularly after he locked down Calvin Ridley in Week 1. However take into account that Surtain didn’t comply with Pittman in two earlier conferences with the Colts (together with Week 15 final season). There’s nonetheless some danger of a shadow right here, particularly after Pittman performed effectively in Week 1, however it’s removed from a positive factor, so Pittman stays on the flex radar. Denver gave up the second-fewest fantasy factors to WRs in Week 1.
Over/beneath: 41.6 (fifteenth highest)
Win likelihood: Broncos 51% (fifteenth highest)
Projected rating: Cardinals 25, Panthers 20
Lineup locks: Kyler Murray, James Conner, Chuba Hubbard, Tetairoa McMillan, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride
Fantasy scoop: Not less than from a utilization standpoint, McMillan’s NFL debut was about nearly as good as you’ll be able to hope for. The primary-round rookie performed 82% of the offensive snaps and paced the group in targets (9), air yards (118) and receiving yards (68). Carolina’s offensive struggles may restrict McMillan’s TD output, however it’s very potential he’ll maintain a goal share within the vary of what he noticed within the opener (27%) all through the season. McMillan’s stable begin is sufficient to make him a lineup lock WR3 towards Arizona.
Over/beneath: 45.5 (ninth highest)
Win likelihood: Cardinals 69% (fifth highest)
Projected rating: Eagles 25, Chiefs 25
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, Hollywood Brown, DeVonta Smith, Travis Kelce
Fantasy scoop: With Rashee Rice and Jalen Royals sidelined, and Xavier Worthy injured on his first go route of the season, Kansas Metropolis’s prime receivers in Week 1 have been Brown (54 snaps, 16 targets), JuJu Smith-Schuster (46 snaps, 5 targets) and Tyquan Thornton (42 snaps, 4 targets). Worthy is anticipated to be sidelined for just a few weeks and Rice cannot return from suspension till Week 7, which units up Brown because the group’s prime wideout. Although he will not maintain a 42% goal share, Brown has a historical past of heavy utilization and WR2/3 manufacturing, so he needs to be in lineups towards the Eagles. Smith-Schuster and Thornton are sneaky flex choices in deeper leagues, however contemplating the depth of the place, you’ll be able to definitely goal increased.
Shadow Report: Trent McDuffie figures to shadow Brown this week. That was how he was deployed when these groups confronted off within the Tremendous Bowl, with Brown delivering a 3-43-1 receiving line on 5 targets. McDuffie is a stable nook, so Brown’s bust price is increased than regular, however he, in fact, ought to stay in lineups.
Over/beneath: 49.9 (second highest)
Win likelihood: Eagles 53% (14th highest)
Projected rating: Vikings 24, Falcons 20
Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, Justin Jefferson, Drake London, T.J. Hockenson
Fantasy scoop: The Vikings’ Week 1 RB utilization cut up between Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones was as follows: Mason held the sting in snaps (28-23) and carries (15-8), however Jones led in routes (10-4) and targets (3-1). The deployment was about as anticipated, although Mason’s sizable edge in carries is nice information for his shot at weekly flex manufacturing (however minimal receiving work will stay a detriment to his ceiling). Jones caught a landing go on a well-thrown wheel route, which bailed him out of an in any other case underwhelming day. Each backs are on the flex radar towards Atlanta, with Jones’ receiving position supplying him with a tiny edge.
Shadow Report: Count on A.J. Terrell to shadow Jefferson this week. Atlanta’s prime nook traveled with Mike Evans in Week 1 and shadowed usually all through final season, which included a Week 14 recreation towards Minnesota. That week, Terrell aligned towards Jefferson on 18 of his 32 routes (17 of 24 on the perimeter). Jefferson had no hassle, posting a 7-132-2 receiving line on seven targets. Most of that injury did come away from Terrell protection, however prime receivers merely have not had a lot hassle towards Atlanta in recent times. Expectations for Jefferson can stay excessive.
Over/beneath: 44.3 (14th highest)
Win likelihood: Vikings 65% (ninth highest)
Projected rating: Buccaneers 24, Texans 22
Lineup locks: Bucky Irving, Nico Collins, Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka
Fantasy scoop: Houston utilized 4 tailbacks in Week 1. Nick Chubb was the lead (13 carries and one goal on 28 snaps), but additionally concerned have been Dare Ogunbowale (two carries and two targets on 15 snaps), Woody Marks (three carries and 0 targets on seven snaps) and Dameon Pierce (three carries and one goal on seven snaps). Chubb ran the ball effectively (4.6 YPC) however stays a nonfactor within the passing recreation, which makes him an unappealing flex possibility. If Chubb have been to take a seat out time, a three-headed committee in all probability can be in place, with none of Ogunbowale, Pierce or Marks a viable flex. It is a scenario to keep away from utterly, at the least till Joe Mixon (hopefully) returns later this season.
Shadow Report: Evans can count on the shadow therapy from Derek Stingley Jr. this week. Houston’s standout nook traveled with Davante Adams in Week 1 and held him to 7.2 fantasy factors. Moreover, he shadowed on 5 events in 2024 and held that group to 13.8 fantasy factors per recreation. Evans was held to eight.3 factors whereas coping with A.J. Terrell’s shadow protection in Week 1, so it is truthful to decrease expectations a bit towards Stingley this week.
Over/beneath: 46.1 (seventh highest)
Win likelihood: Buccaneers 58% (twelfth highest)
Projected rating: Chargers 25, Raiders 20
Lineup locks: Ashton Jeanty, Omarion Hampton, Jakobi Meyers, Ladd McConkey, Brock Bowers
Fantasy scoop: Hampton’s NFL debut wasn’t tremendous spectacular within the boxscore (61 yards), however the excellent news is that his general utilization offers a ton of causes for optimism. The rookie out-snapped Najee Harris 50-11 and out-carried him 15-1. Hampton was restricted to 2 targets however ran 18 routes to Harris’ 5. It is potential (maybe doubtless) that Harris will get extra work transferring ahead, however even when Hampton’s snap share drops a bit from what he noticed in Week 1 (81%), he’ll nonetheless be effectively positioned to offer weekly RB1/2 numbers. Lock Hampton into your lineup towards the Raiders, whereas Harris needs to be on both waivers or the top of your bench.
Shadow Report: Chargers extensive receivers have been glorious in Week 1, with McConkey, Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston every delivering at the least 5 receptions, 68 yards and 13.4 fantasy factors. The trio is in an awesome spot this week, because it’s set to face off with Raiders corners Eric Stokes, Kyu Blu Kelly and Darnay Holmes. The Raiders surrendered the sixth-most fantasy factors to receivers in Week 1 regardless of going through a Patriots WR room that hardly included Stefon Diggs (12 routes). Improve Los Angeles’ receivers.
Over/beneath: 45.3 (tenth highest)
Win likelihood: Chargers 65% (tenth highest)
