Fantasy playbook: NFL Week 9 Shadow Stories, lineup locks and projected scores

Welcome to The Playbook for Week 9, which kicks off Thursday with the Ravens on the Dolphins.

This column options rating projections, over/unders, win chances, and, in fact, simply digestible fantasy recommendation for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This information ought to enable you to with all types of decision-making, together with sit/begin, last-minute waiver provides and lineup selections.

Moreover, now we have folded the Shadow Stories, beforehand a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns right here. Utilizing our play-by-play information, we’re in a position to establish defensive schemes and the place every huge receiver and cornerback traces up on every play. By monitoring these WR/CB matchups, together with potential shadow conditions, we will supply one of the best projections, rankings, sit/begin recommendation and waiver wire strategies every week.

All of this recommendation is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with comparatively normal scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 Okay, 1 D/ST), though I am going to usually point out “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts present all gamers who’ve been projected for no less than 6.0 fantasy factors this week, in addition to all D/STs. “Matchup” is robotically decided utilizing a proprietary metric that elements in uncooked and volume-adjusted fantasy factors allowed to every place by the opposing protection this season.

(Editor’s word: Projections and rankings will align nearly completely, however generally when a projection is shut, a participant is perhaps ranked barely larger or decrease due to different elements, together with upside or danger. This column is topic to updates through the weekend, though on the very minimal, rankings can be up to date on the positioning and projections will at all times be up to date inside the sport main as much as kickoff.)

BAL-MIA | CHI-CIN | MIN-DET | CAR-GB | DEN-HOU | ATL-NE | SF-NYG
IND-PIT | LAC-TEN | NO-LAR | JAX-LV | KC-BUF | SEA-WAS | ARI-DAL

Projected rating: Ravens 27, Dolphins 26

Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, De’Von Achane, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, Jaylen Waddle

Fantasy scoop: Waddle (26) and Achane (25) unsurprisingly lead the Dolphins in targets within the 4 video games since Tyreek Hill’s season-ending damage, however it might shock you that Malik Washington (24) is simply behind. The 2024 sixth-round decide noticed five-plus targets in all 4 video games, hitting a career-high eight in Week 7. Washington discovered the top zone final week and posted season-high marks in yardage (36) and fantasy factors (13.6). Clearly, these marks aren’t very excessive and make sure that Washington is just not but a dependable fantasy choice regardless of the enhance in utilization. The Ravens have struggled towards receivers this season, although that might not be the case shifting ahead now that they are much more healthy. Washington is not more than a deep-league flex lottery ticket.

Over/beneath: 52.6 (fifth highest)
Win likelihood: Ravens 55% (tenth highest)

Projected rating: Bears 28, Bengals 26

Lineup locks: D’Andre Swift, Ja’Marr Chase, Rome Odunze, Tee Higgins

Fantasy scoop: The Bengals stay dedicated to a backfield committee, and that was on show on Sunday when Chase Brown dealt with 12 carries and three targets on 31 snaps, in comparison with 9 carries and one goal on 25 snaps for Samaje Perine. Although he is enjoying a lesser position than he did out of the gate, Brown’s inventory is on the rise, as he has now delivered 100-plus scrimmage yards in consecutive video games, together with Sunday’s two-TD, 25.5-point displaying.

Brown’s improved play within the Joe Flacco-led offense is sufficient to get him within the RB2 combine this week. Plus, Chicago has allowed eight TDs, 5.2 yards per carry and a league-high 93% catch charge to RBs. Nonetheless, there’s nonetheless some danger right here, as he has cleared 13.1 fantasy factors solely as soon as this season. Perine can be recent off a giant recreation (100 yards and one TD), however he’s but to clear 10 touches in a recreation. He stays greatest left on benches.

Shadow Report: Anticipate DJ Turner to shadow Odunze this week. Turner has emerged because the Bengals’ high nook, having traveled with Travis Hunter (Hunter scored 5.2 fantasy factors within the recreation), Justin Jefferson (12.5), Courtland Sutton (19.1), Jameson Williams (1.9), Romeo Doubs (10.5) and DK Metcalf (8.0). These receivers averaged 9.5 fantasy PPG. Turner has clearly finished a pleasant job, with seven of the highest eight WR performances towards the Bengals coming from gamers he did not shadow. Odunze may be downgraded barely, whereas the workforce’s secondary targets may be upgraded (the Bengals have allowed the fourth-most passing yards and TDs this season).

Over/beneath: 54 (third highest)
Win likelihood: Bears 54% (twelfth highest)

Projected rating: Lions 28, Vikings 18

Lineup locks: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Sam LaPorta

Fantasy scoop: Aaron Jones returned from IR final week and instantly retook lead again duties in Minnesota. Jones performed 53% of the snaps and dealt with 5 carries and 4 targets in what was a really low-volume recreation for the Vikings offense (47 snaps). Jordan Mason, in the meantime, was restricted to simply 4 carries and one goal on 16 snaps. This figures to stay a full-on committee, with Mason because the lead ball provider and goal-line choice and Jones not far behind in carries and the featured passing-game again.

Week 9 presents a tricky matchup towards a Lions protection that has allowed the fewest yards and fourth-fewest fantasy factors to RBs. Particularly with Minnesota a considerable underdog, Mason is means off the fantasy radar, whereas Jones is a low-ceiling flex.

Over/beneath: 46 (tenth highest)
Win likelihood: Lions 85% (fifth highest)

Projected rating: Packers 30, Panthers 18

Lineup locks: Josh Jacobs, Tetairoa McMillan, Tucker Kraft

Fantasy scoop: Jordan Love put up 28.3 fantasy factors on Sunday, his most since he delivered a career-high 28.4 in Week 17 of the 2023 season. Love now has two top-5 fantasy outings this season, although they symbolize his solely finishes higher than eleventh and he has completed sixteenth or decrease 4 occasions. Love is enjoying effectively, however his passing output has been everywhere in the map and, whereas he is including extra as a rusher than he did in 2024, he has nonetheless supplied solely 109 yards and nil TDs together with his legs. Love stays a stable QB2 and is a streaming choice this week towards a Carolina protection that has allowed 22-plus fantasy factors to QBs in 4 of its previous 5 video games.

Over/beneath: 48 (eighth highest)
Win likelihood: Packers 86% (third highest)

Projected rating: Chargers 29, Titans 17

Lineup locks: Justin Herbert, Kimani Vidal, Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen

Fantasy scoop: Quentin Johnston is eyeing a rebound following an unpleasant Week 8 displaying wherein he was held and not using a single goal. With Los Angeles working in rookie Tre’ Harris extra usually (primarily as a blocker), Johnston was restricted to 53% of the offensive snaps after enjoying 86% throughout his first six video games. The doughnut is the newest in a string of duds from Johnston, who, after averaging 9.3 targets and 19.9 fantasy factors per recreation throughout his first 4 video games, has totaled 10 targets and 17.9 factors in his previous three outings. Johnston stays a candidate for the occasional large play however, with the massive dip in utilization, he is a lot riskier than he was out of the gate and is not a lineup lock.

Shadow Report: The excellent news for Johnston is that we’re upgrading the Chargers receivers towards a Titans protection that’s permitting 9.7 yards per goal (second highest) and a 75% catch charge (highest) to receivers this season. Tennessee is already shorthanded at nook with L’Jarius Sneed on IR and having traded main slot man Roger McCreary to the Rams on Monday. McConkey, Allen and Johnston are set to battle with Jalyn Armour-Davis, Darrell Baker Jr. and a to-be-determined substitute within the slot. This requires a giant enhance in worth for the Chargers cross recreation.

Over/beneath: 46.3 (ninth highest)
Win likelihood: Chargers 88% (2nd highest)

Projected rating: Patriots 27, Falcons 16

Lineup locks: Drake Maye, Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Stefon Diggs

Fantasy scoop: Kayshon Boutte discovered the top zone once more on Sunday and now has 4 scores in his previous three outings. This, after he discovered paydirt a complete of simply 4 occasions in his first 25 NFL video games. Regardless of the current run, Boutte is just not but a dependable flex choice. He has cleared 5 targets solely as soon as, and that was means again in Week 1. Boutte sits fifth amongst receivers in TDs (5) however 58th in targets (31), forty ninth in catches (23) and twenty second in yardage (431). Boutte is a candidate for some severe regression to the imply and is not more than a growth/bust deep-league flex flier.

Shadow Report: If London returns from damage this week, he is a candidate for shadow protection by Christian Gonzalez. After lacking time to open the season after which spending a number of weeks enjoying proper nook, Gonzalez shadowed Jerry Jeudy in Week 8, holding Cleveland’s high receiver and not using a single catch. New England’s cross protection hasn’t been distinctive, although no receiver has reached 18 fantasy factors towards the Patriots this season. Particularly with the potential for a Gonzalez shadow, expectations for London ought to be lowered.

Over/beneath: 43.7 (twelfth highest)
Win likelihood: Patriots 85% (4th highest)

Projected rating: 49ers 26, Giants 25

Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Wan’Dale Robinson, George Kittle

Fantasy scoop: Cam Skattebo (ankle) is out for the season, which suggests Tracy will return to lead-back duties for New York. With Skattebo departing after 10 snaps on Sunday, Tracy soaked up 10 carries and three targets on 32 snaps, in comparison with two carries and one goal on eight snaps for Devin Singletary. We obtained a prolonged take a look at a Tracy/Singletary backfield final season, with Tracy taking up because the Giants’ de facto lead again in Week 5 and occurring to play 11 “full” video games with Singletary additionally energetic.

Throughout that span, Tracy performed 67% of the snaps and dealt with 13.2 carries and three.5 targets per recreation. He reached 65 yards in 9 of the 11 video games and averaged 12.2 fantasy PPG, which ranked twenty third amongst RBs. Tracy is enjoying in a greater offense this time round, which places him on the RB2 radar, particularly this week towards a struggling 49ers protection that’s permitting 26.5 fantasy PPG to RBs over its previous 5 video games.

Over/beneath: 51.3 (sixth highest)
Win likelihood: 49ers 52% (thirteenth highest)

Projected Rating: Colts 31, Steelers 25

Lineup locks: Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor, Jaylen Warren, DK Metcalf, Michael Pittman Jr., Tyler Warren

Fantasy scoop: Jones has completed higher than tenth amongst QBs in fantasy factors as soon as in his previous six outings, however he has proven a stable flooring as of late (22-plus factors in three straight) and ought to be locked into lineups this week. Jones has thrown for a number of touchdowns in 4 consecutive video games and sits fourth within the league in passing yards. This week, he’ll profit from going through a struggling Pittsburgh protection that has surrendered probably the most completions and passing yardage, in addition to the second-most fantasy factors to quarterbacks. Each Joe Flacco and Jordan Love reached 26.0 factors towards Pittsburgh over the previous two weeks.

Shadow Report: We’re additionally upgrading Colts receivers towards a Steelers protection that appears good on paper, however that has allowed probably the most catches and yards to receivers this season. Pittsburgh has surrendered the fifth-most fantasy factors to the place on the season, together with probably the most over the previous 4 weeks. Pittman will get a lift, whereas Josh Downs and Alec Pierce are deep-league sleepers.

Over/beneath: 56.4 (highest)
Win likelihood: Colts 70% (sixth highest)

Projected rating: Broncos 22, Texans 22

Lineup locks: Nico Collins, Courtland Sutton

Shadow Report: Derek Stingley Jr. is an efficient guess to shadow Sutton this week. The standout nook hasn’t been wanted in a shadow capability in current weeks, however earlier within the season he traveled with Davante Adams (Adams scored 7.2 fantasy factors within the recreation), Mike Evans (10.6) and Brian Thomas Jr. (7.5). Sutton has put collectively stable days even when shadowed this season, so whereas we’re downgrading him a bit, he stays a WR2/3. Secondary Denver receivers ought to be prevented towards a Houston protection that has allowed a league-low 56% catch charge and solely three TDs to the place this season. That features Troy Franklin, who scored 26.9 factors final week in an A-plus matchup towards Dallas after averaging 9.9 per recreation throughout Weeks 1-7.

Shadow Report: Pat Surtain II is out for a couple of month, which is sweet information for Collins, as he’ll dodge his shadow protection (assuming he returns from a concussion suffered in Week 7). In fact, even with Surtain out, this matchup does not determine to be a stroll within the park. Denver’s general cross protection has been pretty much as good as anticipated, sitting third greatest in EPA towards the cross and having allowed two TDs, a league-low in yards per goal (6.3) and the second-fewest fantasy factors to WRs. Denver has but to permit a receiver to succeed in 20 fantasy factors in a recreation this season. Collins and the remainder of the Houston passing recreation ought to be downgraded barely.

Over/beneath: 43.8 (eleventh highest)
Win likelihood: Broncos 52% (lowest)

Projected rating: Jaguars 23, Raiders 18

Lineup locks: Ashton Jeanty, Travis Etienne Jr., Brian Thomas Jr., Brock Bowers

Fantasy scoop: Once we final noticed the Jaguars in motion, Travis Hunter lastly had his offensive breakout recreation, posting an 8-101-1 receiving line on 13 targets. All 4 of these numbers have been profession highs, and his 24.1 fantasy factors marked his first recreation above 9.4. Maybe the first motive for optimism right here is that Hunter performed a career-high 86% of the offensive snaps and did not play in any respect on protection till rubbish time. Jacksonville seems dedicated to Hunter’s offensive ascent, which positions him as a viable WR3, particularly this week towards the Raiders. Talking of which …

Shadow Report: Improve Jaguars receivers towards a Raiders protection that has allowed the fourth-most catches and fantasy factors to receivers, in addition to the seventh-most yardage and 9 TDs. Thomas ought to stay locked in lineups, whereas aforementioned Hunter additionally makes for a viable starter.

Over/beneath: 40.2 (thirteenth highest)
Win likelihood: Jaguars 67% (seventh highest)

Projected rating: Rams 26, Saints 12