NFL free company grades: QB Aaron Rodgers indicators with Steelers

Aaron Rodgers formally has a brand new staff. The veteran quarterback agreed to phrases on a one-year cope with the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday and is predicted to hitch the staff for obligatory minicamp subsequent week. Rodgers was launched by the New York Jets in mid-March however took a while to weigh choices earlier than in the end touchdown in Pittsburgh.

Rodgers, who will flip 42 in the course of the 2025 season, is predicted to start out for the Steelers. He threw for 3,897 yards, 29 landing passes and 11 interceptions final season, his first full 12 months with the Jets after tearing an Achilles in Week 1 in 2023. He was one of many prime out there QBs this offseason, and he’s a four-time league MVP. However there are questions on how a lot he has left within the tank. Is that this actually an excellent transfer for Pittsburgh, even with out different apparent options? Does it assist stabilize the offense? Let’s measurement up the deal.

Analytics author Seth Walder is evaluating and grading the deal primarily based on a number of elements, together with on-field influence, wage cap implications, compensation, participant worth/age and the context of the Steelers’ short- and long-term outlooks. How massive is the influence of this choice, and the way positive are we it is a good or dangerous alternative? How does this have an effect on Pittsburgh’s probability to win the Tremendous Bowl this season or sooner or later? We additionally requested NFL analyst Ben Solak to make sense of the scheme match within the Steelers’ offense — is Pittsburgh’s offense higher now than it was in 2024?

This is our tackle the long-awaited Rodgers deal.

Bounce to:
Grading the Rodgers deal
Sizing up the staff match

Grading the deal

I am unable to imagine we’re again right here, watching one other NFL franchise determined for a solution at quarterback kowtow to a 41-year-old who hasn’t performed good ball since 2021. Twelve months from now we’ll search for and most definitely be speaking in regards to the Steelers’ misplaced season with Rodgers that resulted in disappointment. However … I additionally suppose that is the rational alternative for the Steelers. The median final result shouldn’t be the purpose. This transfer makes some sense merely due to the slim quantity of upside that Rodgers nonetheless possesses and the choices that have been on the desk.

In 2021, Rodgers recorded a 74.1 QBR, main the league within the class and successful MVP. For context, the final time Russell Wilson — who signed with the Giants however was theoretically an choice to return to the Steelers at one level — hit that QBR mark was in 2012, his rookie season. Similar goes for Kirk Cousins, who might need been a commerce candidate. As poorly as Rodgers performed final season, the probabilities of him being a top-10 quarterback this season are larger than these of Wilson, Cousins or another veteran who was or is offered.

Rodgers is coming off a really poor 2024 season with the Jets through which he ranked twenty fifth in QBR (48.0) regardless of having Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams (for 11 video games) to focus on. His completion share over expectation was minus-5%, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats, higher than these of solely Anthony Richardson and Cooper Rush. (Granted, the cross safety in New York was under common.)

The optimistic case for the Steelers is that Rodgers was nonetheless hampered by the torn Achilles that knocked him out for all however 4 performs within the 2023 season. And to be honest, Rodgers did look extra cellular because the 2024 season went alongside. Of Rodgers’ 30 quickest top-speed performs final season, 17 got here in Week 13 or later, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. However an underrated a part of the Rodgers profession arc is that he performed poorly not solely final season after lacking just about all of 2023 however additionally in 2022, his closing season with the Packers. Rodgers ranked twenty sixth in QBR that 12 months (one spot forward of Wilson). So Rodgers’ current struggles should not be attributed solely to that damage; the decline began earlier than he joined the Jets.

The Steelers would in all probability be sensible to not let Rodgers have as a lot say within the offense as he had with the Jets. In spite of everything, Rodgers’ finest season in current historical past was 2020 taking part in beneath Matt LaFleur in a system that used play-action and movement at a lot larger relative charges than what the Jets ran final season. Pittsburgh offensive coordinator Arthur Smith ran play-action 27% of the time final season (tenth most) however was gentle on movement on the snap at simply 16% (twenty eighth).

The Jets’ offense was additionally closely predicated on receivers operating straight. In truth, 27% of the Jets’ routes have been deep fades, quick fades, hitches and go routes. That in all probability is not ideally suited generally and positively is not ideally suited for a staff whose finest receiver is Garrett Wilson, who excels at transferring laterally. Nonetheless, that route profile is a power of DK Metcalf.

What separates the Steelers from, say, the Giants (one other reported contender for Rodgers at one level) is that Pittsburgh has the infrastructure that might probably reap the benefits of Rodgers’ upside. By that I imply this can be a staff that has:

• A doubtlessly nice protection. Pittsburgh ranked tenth in EPA per play final season, however its ceiling is a lot larger. With T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, Cameron Heyward and Nick Herbig (don’t sleep on Nick Herbig!), the Steelers have an outrageous cross rush. And the secondary (with Minkah Fitzpatrick, Joey Porter Jr. and Darius Slay Jr.) can be strong, too.

• Adequate cross safety. The Steelers ranked thirteenth in cross block win fee final season, although they misplaced left sort out Dan Moore Jr. to the Titans in free company.

• A very good vast receiver in Metcalf. Although with George Pickens traded to the Dallas Cowboys, Rodgers and the Steelers actually may use a second vast receiver behind the previous Seahawks star. The depth chart behind Metcalf in not significantly inspiring.

• A savvy coach with organizational energy and a observe report of having the ability to deal with tough personalities. This was one thing the Jets lacked, giving Rodgers de facto run of the group. It is fairly clear that is not one thing a staff ought to need, and if anybody can deal with Rodgers, it is Mike Tomlin.

Assuming Rodgers is taking part in for one thing just like the $10 million he stated he would play for, this can be a good transfer for Pittsburgh. Certain, there have been low-cost QB alternate options on the draft. Shedeur Sanders fell to Day 3, however Pittsburgh handed on him at No. 83 after which once more at No. 123. Even so, as poorly as Rodgers has performed over the previous few years, this can be a relative discount. The Steelers will probably be on the lookout for a quarterback subsequent offseason, however at the least they did not overspend within the interim. (They did draft Will Howard within the sixth spherical, however he’s probably a backup within the execs.)

Wanting forward, if Rodgers hits his, say, eighty fifth percentile final result, then the Steelers may go on a deep playoff run. If Wilson had landed in Pittsburgh and hit his personal eighty fifth percentile final result, I do not suppose let’s imagine the identical factor. And if Rodgers have been to hit his eighty fifth percentile final result with the Giants, they might nonetheless be a missing soccer staff. For this reason the Rodgers-Steelers marriage makes uncomfortable sense.

Do not get me incorrect: If I have been the Steelers, I might not be ok with taking place this path. However I additionally have a look at 30-year-old Watt and suppose that if they are going to take a swing whereas he is nonetheless there, there is not a greater different. — Walder

Grade: B (pending contract info)

Does Rodgers match the Steelers’ offense?

Riddling out whether or not Rodgers matches any kind of scheme or system begins not together with his on-field expertise however with whether or not he buys in. Will Rodgers willingly run the Arthur Smith offense when his time with the Jets was outlined by his unwillingness to play in a brand new system or throw to new gamers? Smith’s offenses in Tennessee, Atlanta and Pittsburgh have all relied closely on play-action passes from beneath heart, however Rodgers does not like turning his again to the protection. Is he lastly able to admit that his mobility is diminishing and bend his play model to accommodate it? Or will he proceed to carry the road on how he needs to play?

Rodgers can be an unsure match with Metcalf. The ex-Seahawk is without doubt one of the much less exact route runners within the NFL, and Rodgers famously calls for perfection from his receivers as they run his hand-selected number of extremely particular routes. It is exhausting to think about a 17-game season through which there is no such thing as a sideline or postgame blowup between Rodgers and his prime cross catcher.

Even when the match is not good and the personalities conflict, Rodgers was a greater quarterback within the 2024 season than Russell Wilson or Justin Fields. The Steelers’ offense beneath Rodgers won’t persistently outperform final season’s model, however it should probably have extra peak video games of competency, which might be a giant deal come playoff time. — Solak