With simply two weeks left within the common season, the playoff image is beginning to take form within the North Coast Part.
The NCS is in its second 12 months utilizing a brand new playoff construction often known as aggressive fairness that seeds groups into divisions primarily based on their laptop rating decided by MaxPreps, which is calculated partially primarily based on power of schedule, wins and head-to-head opponents.
Different sections use the same system, however the NCS model is exclusive in that groups can solely transfer up or down a max of two divisions from their base division, which is set by college enrollment. For instance, a staff in Division 4 can go as excessive as Division 2 or as little as Division 6 primarily based on their laptop rating. The exception is for the Open/Division 1, the best division, which takes the highest eight groups no matter their base division.
This new system was profitable in addressing a few of the NCS’ playoff points, like lowering first-round blowouts and giving some new groups the prospect to win part titles.
Nevertheless, it additionally yielded some head-scratching choices within the 2024 playoffs. Solely a handful of smaller colleges made the playoffs regardless of having successful information, bumped out by bigger colleges with dropping information that had higher laptop rankings as a result of harder schedules they performed.
The NCS made a major tweak a couple of weeks in the past to deal with that situation. The brand new modification accepted by the NCS Board of Managers in early October, dubbed “wins-based {qualifications}” by some, places extra emphasis on regular-season wins in terms of figuring out which 56 groups make the playoffs.
The brand new modification launched seven “tiers” that groups will likely be positioned into primarily based on their regular-season wins. The part will then go in descending order from Tier 1 down till they attain the 56 groups to fill the seven eight-team divisions.
Ten-win groups and league champions will likely be positioned in Tier 1, nine-win groups in Tier 2, eight-win groups in Tier 3, seven-win groups in Tier 4, six-win groups in Tier 5 and five-win groups, plus playoff-eligible groups in “Tremendous Leagues,” in Tier 6. Tier 7 is comprised of groups with fewer than 5 wins that meet the minimal playoff necessities, which is a .500 file or higher both total, in league or towards groups of their base division.
Been informed by a number of sources that this proposal to regulate the soccer playoff system has been accepted by NCS Board of Managers. To be applied instantly.
Proposal is from the HDNL. Response by smaller colleges after getting pushed out of the playoffs final 12 months. #PDPreps pic.twitter.com/2x1AQNTQAO
— Gus Morris (@JustGusPD) October 3, 2025
The “Tremendous Leagues” are the Redwood Empire Convention Adobe division, the Diablo Foothill, the WACC Foothill and the EBAL Mountain.
The change has been broadly welcomed by smaller colleges, since they’ll now have a greater shot at making the postseason. It must also hold the bigger colleges that made it final 12 months with dropping information out of the playoffs.
It may additionally make the top of the season extra thrilling and dramatic, as quite a lot of groups may face win-and-get-in video games to shut out the 12 months.
Since most groups have seven or extra video games beneath their belt, we are able to begin to forecast the seedings in divisions.
You will need to notice that these “projections” under are simply what the playoff image seems to be like after Week 9. There are a whole lot of groups that would fall out or soar into the postseason over the following two weeks.
The NCS playoff seeding assembly is scheduled for Nov. 9. Right here’s what the playoff image seems to be like as of Oct. 30.
NCS playoff image after Week 9.
Determined to name this a playoff image slightly than a projection. Extra correct description.
Simply two weeks left within the common season. I anticipate there will likely be much more motion earlier than all is claimed and achieved. #PDPreps https://t.co/igfTx4GBX5 pic.twitter.com/2F8DW969V3
— Gus Morris (@JustGusPD) October 27, 2025
Open/Division 1
Open
No. 1 De La Salle vs. No. 8 San Marin
No. 2 Pittsburg vs. No. 7 California
Division 1
No. 3 Cardinal Newman vs. No. 6 Liberty
No. 4 Acalanes vs. No. 5 Marin Catholic
This bracket is exclusive in the truth that a staff may lose a recreation and advance. The winners of the 1-8 and 2-7 matchups will face one another for the Open Division title. The staff that loses will drop all the way down to face the winner of the Division 1 semifinal recreation for the Division 1 title.
Presently, this bracket options six of the eight groups from final 12 months, together with the identical three groups from the REC-Adobe.
De La Salle and Pittsburg are each locked into the highest two spots. Cardinal Newman and Marin Catholic additionally each appear like locks for Division 1 and their seeding will likely be decided with their head-to-head battle this week.
The Nos. 6-8 seeds may nonetheless see some adjustments. Liberty has the simplest schedule among the many three groups to shut out the 12 months and will win each video games towards Antioch (No. 21 in NCS) and Heritage (No. 46 in NCS). Cal nonetheless has to play De La Salle and Amador Valley (No. 19 in NCS). A loss to Amador Valley may drop them out.
San Marin may additionally drop out with a loss to both Classic (No. 16 in NCS) or San Rancho Cotate (No. 17 in NCS).
Division 2
No. 1 San Ramon Valley vs. No. 8 Rancho Cotate
No. 2 Monte Vista vs. No. 7 Classic
No. 3 Campolindo vs. No. 6 American Canyon
No. 4 Windsor vs. No. 5 Clayton Valley Constitution
Division 2 may additionally see some main adjustments to finish the 12 months, primarily stemming from the Monte Vista vs. San Ramon Valley recreation to finish the common season. The winner of that recreation may soar to the Open/Division 1 bracket primarily based on what occurs between the underside groups in that bracket over the following two weeks.
Rancho Cotate may additionally find yourself in a unique bracket. The Cougars have been ranked No. 19 to start out the week however at the moment are No. 17 after an replace on Thursday. That moved them from the 1 seed in Division 3 to the 8 seed in Division 2. They’ll end the 12 months taking part in Windsor (No. 12 in NCS) and San Marin (No. 8 in NCS). It’s a difficult spot for the Cougars. In the event that they lose each, they’ll be on the bubble of creating it in as an at-large bid however may find yourself dropping again all the way down to Division 3. A win would assist solidify their playoff possibilities however would lead to them staying as a much less favorable seed in Division 2.
Division 3
No. 1 Livermore vs. No. 8 San Leandro
No. 2 El Cerrito vs. No. 7 James Logan
No. 3 Antioch vs. No. 6 Miramonte
No. 4 Ukiah vs. No. 5 Dublin
Division 3 is the place the two-up, two-down motion begins to return into play. Miramonte is a Division 5 staff however is ranked No. 25 within the NCS, transferring them up two divisions. San Leandro and James Logan are each Division 1 groups that drop, a recurring theme within the subsequent few brackets.
If James Logan and San Leandro each find yourself making it into Division 3, San Leandro can be seeded greater than James Logan regardless of their rankings attributable to a head-to-head win.
Additionally notable, Ukiah was the 1 seed in Division 4 previous to its win over St. Vincent, which elevated its rating by 4 spots.
Division 4
No. 1 Las Lomas vs. No. 8 Washington
No. 2 Bishop O’Dowd vs. No. 7 Irvington
No. 3 Granada vs. No. 6 Alameda
No. 4 Deer Valley vs. No. 5 Redwood
Division 4 at present options six Division 2 groups that drop, highlighting the problem that plagued the part playoffs final 12 months. The underside six groups are all Division 2. Las Lomas is base Division 3 and Bishop O’Dowd is base Division 4.
That is the place groups dropping begins to have a significant ripple impact into the decrease brackets.
Division 5
No. 1 St. Vincent vs. No. 8 Arroyo
No. 2 Ferndale vs. No. 7 Maria Carrillo
No. 3 St. Bernard’s-Eureka vs. No. 6 Analy
No. 4 Hayward vs. No. 5 Casa Grande
That is arguably probably the most attention-grabbing bracket. On the high you’ve gotten the three top-ranked Division 7 groups within the part, whereas the remaining 5 spots are taken up by Division 3 groups that drop.
If these seedings maintain, we may see an all-Petaluma second-round recreation between St. Vincent and Casa Grande, however it’s a bit unlikely that Gauchos will keep on this place. They’ll should win each of their last video games to ensure a playoff spot, which might imply beating American Canyon (No. 15 in NCS) and Petaluma (No. 38 in NCS). A win over American Canyon would see them rise no less than a couple of spots within the rankings.
Ferndale has been some of the spectacular groups within the part this 12 months. The 2023 CIF Division 7-AA state champs are 8-0 and have outscored groups 517-0. The Wildcats could possibly be the largest competitor with St. Vincent, a two-time defending state champion, for the part title.
For the reason that backside 5 groups on this bracket are all from Division 3, that leaves solely three spots for Division 7 groups to rise. Salesian could possibly be one other staff that finally joins the combo relying on how the top of the common season performs out.
Division 6
No. 1 Salesian vs. No. 8 Pinole Valley
No. 2 Benicia vs. No. 7 Kennedy-Fremont
No. 3 St. Helena vs. No. 6 San Rafael
No. 4 Petaluma vs. No. 5 Mt Diablo
That is one other fairly blended bracket with groups from Division 4, 5 and seven all represented.
Salesian may soar as much as Division 5, which may land Division 4 Benicia as the highest seed. The Panthers will face School Park this week for the Diablo Valley title.
St. Helena is one other Division 7 energy that’s within the midst of an undefeated season. It’s an extended shot for the Saints to leap Salesian and find yourself in Division 5.
Petaluma is just like Casa Grande in the truth that it could want to complete the common season effectively with a purpose to qualify for the postseason. If the Trojans lose to Tamalpais this week, their playoff hopes may hinge on the ultimate recreation of the 12 months towards Casa Grande.
Division 7
No. 1 Sonoma Valley vs. No. 8 St. Patrick-St. Vincent
No. 2 Fortuna vs. No. 7 Redwood Christian
No. 3 Middletown vs. No. 6 Harmony
No. 4 Willits vs. No. 5 Vallejo
Sonoma Valley is the beneficiary of the trickle-down impact from the upper divisions. The Dragons are ranked No. 39 within the NCS, one spot under Petaluma. There’s a probability that these two groups may finally flip positions primarily based on how the ultimate weeks go.
In any other case, this bracket is an effective instance of why the part added its wins-based qualification. Middletown, Willits, Redwood Christian and St. Patrick-St. Vincent are all Division 7 groups that wouldn’t have an opportunity to make the playoffs beneath the earlier format.
