The 2026 NFL quarterback market is about to open up, and the long run on the recreation’s most essential place hangs within the stability for a number of groups. And with just one surefire first-rounder within the 2026 NFL draft, loads of groups must search a brand new QB through free company or a commerce — or persist with the man they’ve proper now.
The Vikings should resolve if they need a quarterback to return in to switch, compete with or again up J.J. McCarthy. The Cardinals should decide whether or not Kyler Murray has performed his final snap with the crew. Do the Colts need to mix an injured Daniel Jones with a short-term resolution? And to whom would possibly the Dolphins and the Jets flip for hope?
So, who would be the quarterback for every crew? I attempted to learn the tea leaves and predict the way it will all shake out. On this case, I’m particularly predicting who would be the Week 1 starter for subsequent season. Meaning even the Chiefs — with Patrick Mahomes coming off an harm — are very a lot a query mark right here. Let’s dive into the 32 potential Week 1 starters for 2026.
Bounce to:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LV | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
Searching for somebody new
Predicted 2026 starter: Kyler Murray
I ponder if the Seahawks profitable the Tremendous Bowl with Sam Darnold at quarterback will likely be good for the reclamation quarterback market. And admittedly, Murray is a a lot much less daunting proposition now than Darnold was when he signed with the Vikings two years in the past.
Although Murray’s play dropped off final season, he is just one 12 months faraway from a 63.4 QBR in 2024, the ninth finest that season. That was his second top-10 QBR marketing campaign; he ranked seventh in 2021.
Cleveland’s everlasting seek for a quarterback could lead on it to Murray, particularly with the draft missing top-flight QB prospects past Fernando Mendoza. Murray is due $42.5 million in money, which hovers round honest worth for one season, particularly since he’d be below contract for non-guaranteed years at related costs in 2027 and 2028. Cleveland is tight on cap house (due largely to quarterback Deshaun Watson’s contract), so I’d anticipate the Cardinals to eat a few of Murray’s 2026 cash in trade for a Browns draft decide.
Some would possibly clamor to provide Shedeur Sanders extra growth time, however I believe that will be a mistake. A fifth-round decide whose 18.9 QBR would have been by far the worst within the league had he performed sufficient to qualify must be thought of the longest of pictures, so the Browns ought to be pursuing different quarterback choices.
Regardless of Cleveland boasting a equally robust protection, it could be overly optimistic to match the 2026 Browns to the 2025 Seahawks. Cleveland is in a lot worse form than Seattle was a 12 months in the past as a result of its offensive roster is totally missing — it wants a complete O-line! — even when the Browns purchase Murray and he regains his earlier type. However bear in mind, this may very well be a multiyear association, as Murray has three years left on his contract. It is a wager value making for the Browns.
Predicted 2026 starter: Malik Willis
Let me be the millionth particular person to attach the Packers’ backup quarterback to the Dolphins, however I believe Miami is Willis’ most definitely touchdown spot.
Miami’s new mind belief consists of two former Packers basically supervisor Jon-Eric Sullivan and coach Jeff Hafley. Whereas I believe NFL coaches and entrance workplace personnel dramatically overemphasize the significance of beforehand working with a participant, there is no denying it performs an enormous function in personnel choices. Subsequently, I believe it completely will increase the likelihood Willis leads to Miami.
Willis’ ends in his restricted time throughout 2024 and 2025 had been unimaginable. He posted an 86.3 QBR in that span, a plus-7% completion share over anticipated (per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats), zero interceptions (three fumbles, although) and 9.2 yards per dropback. He scrambled on 13% of his dropbacks and had 17 designed rushes.
However he began solely three video games, so the Dolphins could be basing their 2026 beginning quarterback choice on a particularly small pattern dimension. And people three video games got here below coach Matt LaFleur, an elite offensive designer. So, there definitely is threat. However there’s additionally upside.
The Dolphins are hamstrung at quarterback and when it comes to cap house attributable to Tua Tagovailoa’s extension. Tagovailoa was benched towards the top of final season. However Willis is the kind of participant they need to make an exception for, and signing him could be value an opportunity within the quest to search out their quarterback of the long run.
Predicted 2026 starter: Kirk Cousins
The Vikings managed 14 wins in 2024 with a quarterback (Darnold) who ranked solely 14th in QBR. Whereas they will not all the time have a protection as dominant as that crew had, I’ve to think about Minnesota is hankering for palatable quarterback play.
J.J. McCarthy’s efficiency final season didn’t point out he might ship it. Given how Minnesota let its recognized amount in Darnold stroll out the door in favor of McCarthy, I think coach Kevin O’Connell will need to return to recognized, strong manufacturing. And Cousins represents that. The veteran quarterback was enjoying a number of the finest ball of his profession with the Vikings in 2023 earlier than struggling an Achilles harm. Cousins wasn’t the identical with Atlanta, although he did play nicely on the finish of final season.
The Falcons are anticipated to launch Cousins. As soon as they do, the Vikings would possibly take him again.
Predicted 2026 starter: Spencer Rattler
The Jets had been the toughest crew for me to foretell on this train. There are such a lot of possible candidates.
New York definitely may very well be a touchdown place for a non-Mendoza rookie quarterback, and it could make sense for the Jets to be within the Willis sweepstakes. If they need a steady veteran, maybe the Jets would have a look at Cousins or Derek Carr, although neither could be the mandatory long-term resolution. Or New York might ponder a couple of commerce candidates, with Mac Jones, Tanner McKee and Rattler amongst them.
Although he finally gave strategy to rookie Tyler Shough, Rattler was strong final season in New Orleans. He recorded a 50.3 QBR and a plus-3% completion share over anticipated, and his 9% off-target fee was the bottom amongst all QBs with at the very least 100 go makes an attempt. The 2024 fifth-round decide is coming into his third season, so he might nonetheless enhance. And Rattler seemingly would price much less on the commerce market than Jones, as nicely.
Early-season harm stand-in
Predicted 2026 starter: Gardner Minshew
The Colts are in an attention-grabbing bind, having discovered success with Daniel Jones final season however:
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Not having him below contract for 2026 or past.
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Needing a stopgap resolution even when they do deliver Jones again after he suffered an Achilles harm in December.
Let’s begin with the primary level. I think the crew needs to deliver Jones again however would seemingly favor to signal him to a multiyear deal contemplating he’s unlikely to play till late 2026 on the earliest. However the Colts have some leverage. As a lot as they could want Jones, additionally they provide him a greater path to beginning once more in a scenario the place he is had extra success than wherever else. Indianapolis would in all probability provide him extra money than anybody else attributable to that success.
But when the Colts deliver Jones again, they will want one other QB to start out the season. And they might need it to be somebody they will win with within the quick and medium time period — however in all probability not somebody who would price an excessive amount of or to whom they must commit past 2026.
Enter Minshew. The journeyman had extra success enjoying for Shane Steichen in 2023 than at some other level in his profession. Steichen bought far more out of Minshew — who recorded a 60.4 QBR that season — than he has out of Joe Flacco (50.0) or Anthony Richardson Sr. (44.4). That 2023 earned Minshew $15 million absolutely assured from the Raiders the following offseason, however it went so badly in Vegas that he performed for the Chiefs for simply $1.2 million final season. It was feared that Minshew had torn his ACL in December, however he didn’t.
As a result of Minshew’s star has fallen, he could be an affordable possibility for the Colts to pair with second-year QB Riley Leonard whereas they look ahead to Jones to heal.
Predicted 2026 starter: Marcus Mariota
After all, this hinges on the restoration timeline of Patrick Mahomes, who had surgical procedure in December to restore two ligaments in his left knee. Mahomes has indicated he needs to be again for Week 1, and maybe that can occur. However any prediction about his Week 1 standing is only a guess, so I think about that the Chiefs would need to be cautious with Mahomes, given his significance to the franchise.
If that’s the case, they’d desire a dependable backup who can ideally win a couple of video games whereas Mahomes winds up his restoration. I consider Mariota suits the invoice.
The 32-year-old stood in for Jayden Daniels for eight begins in Washington final season and was succesful, with a 50.2 QBR. He has an extended historical past of being strong, which is basically what Kansas Metropolis wants — a participant who can preserve the crew afloat in Mahomes’ absence however is keen to be a backup and will not be overly costly.
2:08
The place ought to Chiefs look to enhance with financial savings from Mahomes’ restructuring?
Louis Riddick and Kimberley A. Martin study the place the Chiefs ought to look to enhance with the cap house supplied by Patrick Mahomes’ restructured contract.
Respectable wager
Predicted 2026 starter: Jacoby Brissett
The Cardinals do not have to maneuver on from Murray, and with a brand new regime coming in, possibly they will not. However the vibes from final season pointed to a quarterback change, and Brissett is the most definitely Week 1 starter, even when solely as a bridge after beginning 12 video games in 2025. Murray is at present slated to make $42.5 million in money, per OverTheCap.com, so if the Cardinals are in a position to commerce him, they might save all or a part of that by turning to the less expensive Brissett (due $5.4 million in money).
Although Brissett averaged 280.5 passing yards in his begins final season, that quantity was extra a sign of how usually he handed than his true effectivity, as his 41.2 QBR was nicely under common. However he can function a short-term repair. The Cardinals might draft Alabama’s Ty Simpson — maybe late within the first spherical or within the second — and Brissett might begin the 2026 season earlier than yielding to the rookie.
Predicted 2026 starter: Michael Penix Jr.
Penix suffered a torn ACL in November, so his standing for the season opener is in query. Additionally, what sort of participant will the Falcons get when he returns to the sphere? Penix was inconsistent final season, producing a QBR of 83 or larger in 4 of his 9 video games … and a 31 or decrease in 4 others.
Predicted 2026 starter: Aaron Rodgers
I do not suppose Rodgers’ return is a foregone conclusion, however Mike McCarthy’s introductory information convention pushed me to pondering it should occur. When requested if he needed Rodgers again, McCarthy mentioned, “I imply, positively. I do not see why you would not.”
Regardless of McCarthy’s remark, there are many causes the Steelers may not need Rodgers again. He is a 42-year-old quarterback who was final an above-average starter in 2021 (to be honest, he did win MVP that season). And Rodgers additionally should resolve whether or not he needs to play soccer in 2026.
However I think the Steelers will not have the urge for food to rebuild or take a flier on an unknown QB. So that they’ll attempt to re-create the Packers of yesteryear, with Rodgers and McCarthy on the helm. Rodgers recorded a 44.4 QBR with the Steelers final season (twenty third finest). He continued to excel at turnover avoidance, however it got here along side quick, secure throws that weren’t that productive. Rodgers’ 2.59-second common time to throw was the quickest within the league, and 76% of his go makes an attempt had been below 10 air yards, larger than for some other quarterback.
Pittsburgh can depend on its protection, and with a sensible addition or two, issues might break proper when coupled with a turnover-averse Rodgers — even when his upside is severely restricted at this level of his profession. Maybe that is why they don’t seem to be able to tear all of it down simply but.
1:15
The Aaron Rodgers predicament going through Mike McCarthy
Jeff Saturday and Jason McCourty focus on Aaron Rodgers’ short-term affect and the Steelers’ long-term QB plan.
Locked in
Predicted 2026 starter: Lamar Jackson
After profitable the MVP in 2023 and virtually profitable it in 2024, Jackson had a down season in 2025 through which he missed a couple of video games and wasn’t fairly himself when he performed. Now Jackson will likely be in a brand new system below offensive coordinator Declan Doyle, however there ought to be excessive confidence that he can return to type in 2026.
Predicted 2026 starter: Josh Allen
The Payments have it higher than maybe anybody else on the recreation’s most essential place, as Allen would arguably be the QB1 in a leaguewide quarterback redraft. Allen is coming off a “down” 12 months through which he nonetheless bought a few MVP votes. He completed solely seventh in QBR, however his receiving choices weren’t nice. If Allen is on the sphere, the Payments have an excellent probability to win any recreation, regardless of the opponent.
Predicted 2026 starter: Bryce Younger
The pendulum on how a lot the Panthers ought to consider in Younger continued to swing forwards and backwards in 2025, because it has for his total profession. On one hand, Younger led the Panthers to the playoffs and appeared fairly improved at occasions. However he additionally had his share of down moments. He ended the season with a 47.6 QBR (twenty second finest) and solely 5.7 yards per dropback — nothing to write down house about.
He confirmed sufficient to be the starter once more in 2026 and have his fifth-year possibility picked up in 2027. However the Panthers ought to be hesitant to decide to Younger past that till he exhibits extra progress.
Predicted 2026 starter: Caleb Williams
Williams took an enormous step in his second season and delivered some really unforgettable throws throughout Chicago’s inconceivable run to the divisional spherical of the playoffs. There are nonetheless accuracy questions — Williams ranked final amongst QBR-qualifying quarterbacks in off-target fee and completion share over anticipated (per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats). However the Bears know they will win with Williams on the helm.
Predicted 2026 starter: Joe Burrow
A toe harm derailed greater than half of Burrow’s 2025 marketing campaign, serving to lengthen the Bengals’ irritating three-year streak of lacking the playoffs. If Cincinnati can get a wholesome Burrow and enhance its protection to help him, the Bengals will likely be again within the postseason.
Predicted 2026 starter: Dak Prescott
Prescott’s distinctive play final season was overshadowed by the Cowboys lacking the playoffs. He ranked fifth in QBR and third in completion share over anticipated (per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats) regardless of enjoying with the lead on solely 26% of his snaps. If the Cowboys’ protection can enhance to merely common and Prescott maintains his 2025 stage of play, Dallas ought to simply return to the postseason.
Predicted 2026 starter: Bo Nix
Dropping Nix to harm within the divisional playoffs was a brutal blow for the Broncos, who might have (ought to have?) superior to the Tremendous Bowl in any other case. That was very true as a result of Nix completed the season robust. Although he was fifteenth in QBR for the season (58.3), he registered a 66.3 from Week 13 on (the equal of rating seventh). I beforehand believed Nix was ok to win with, however he confirmed indicators that he might ascend to turn into a participant the Broncos might win due to.
Predicted 2026 starter: Jared Goff
Like the remainder of his crew in 2025, Goff did not attain his earlier stage of play, when Detroit’s offense was on the high of the league. However contemplating that he performed behind an offensive line that quietly ranked thirty first in go block win fee final season, Goff’s 18th-ranked QBR begins to turn into extra comprehensible. He, and the Lions, definitely can get again to earlier type in 2026.
Predicted 2026 starter: Jordan Love
Love took a step ahead in 2025, ending third in QBR behind Drake Maye and Brock Purdy due to his means to keep away from main errors. Love dedicated solely eight turnovers final season and took sacks at a 4.3% fee (seventh finest). If the Packers proceed to get that stage of efficiency from Love, they are going to be contenders.
Predicted 2026 starter: C.J. Stroud
The outcomes weren’t fairly the final time we noticed Stroud — he threw 4 interceptions in a playoff loss to the Patriots. However ball safety was a energy for many of 2025 and Stroud was largely strong, particularly contemplating that Houston ranked thirtieth in go block win fee. We nonetheless do not fairly know Stroud’s long-term path, however he is locked in for 2026.
Predicted 2026 starter: Trevor Lawrence
The second half of 2025 lastly noticed Lawrence turn into the participant who had been promised since he entered the league in 2021. Lawrence ranked fifth within the league in QBR after Jacksonville’s Week 8 bye — and from Week 11 on he moved as much as third. Usually I am cautious of strictly second-half splits to venture ahead, however there is a affordable clarification on this case, because it was his first 12 months in coach Liam Coen’s system. Jaguars followers have the proper to be bullish on Lawrence for 2026 and past.
Predicted 2026 starter: Fernando Mendoza
Is it too early to name this locked in? I do not suppose so.
The Raiders want a quarterback badly. The Heisman Trophy winner appears like he suits the invoice. And most essential: There is not any different quarterback within the draft who appears notably near his tier. Even now, Mendoza’s odds of being chosen first by the Raiders are -20000 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
2:00
Is Fernando Mendoza not throwing at mix an enormous deal?
Mike Tannenbaum and Dan Graziano study Fernando Mendoza’s potential mix week after his choice to not throw there.
Predicted 2026 starter: Justin Herbert
Herbert has lengthy been held in a barely larger regard than his manufacturing would point out, and the pairing with new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel (and, ideally, two wholesome tackles) ought to give us the chance to lastly see Herbert carry out with a good supporting forged. This may very well be the 12 months we see Herbert’s elite ceiling.
Predicted 2026 starter: Matthew Stafford
Stafford has already introduced he’ll be again for 2026. After profitable MVP final season, he and the Rams will certainly revisit a contract that at present underpays him, however it’s exhausting to think about the 2 sides not working it out. The expectation for Stafford continues to be excellence, so long as he’s wholesome.
Predicted 2026 starter: Drake Maye
Certain, issues had been undeniably tough for Maye within the Tremendous Bowl (maybe attributable to harm). However Maye was distinctive in 2025 and was the league’s Most Beneficial Participant in my opinion. New England is about for years to return and might go all-in in 2026 realizing it has an elite starter on a rookie contract.
Predicted 2026 starter: Tyler Shough
Shough’s instant success was a pleasing shock final season. The numbers weren’t overwhelming — twenty first in QBR, sixteenth in completion share over expectation, twelfth in turnover fee and 18th in yards per dropback — however they had been robust sufficient over 9 begins to indicate his NFL potential. The Saints might need discovered themselves a quarterback — and outdoors the primary spherical, too.
Predicted 2026 starter: Jaxson Dart
As poor as 2025 was recordwise for the 4-13 Giants, it gave the franchise optimism going ahead. An important a part of that hope is Dart, who completed seventeenth in QBR as a rookie (regardless of largely being with out rising star receiver Malik Nabers) and lifted the crew when he performed. New York’s offense averaged 0.05 EPA per play when Dart was on the sphere, roughly the identical because the Tremendous Bowl champion Seahawks.
If Dart can take one other leap in Yr 2 and the remainder of the offense’s core — Nabers, offensive deal with Andrew Thomas and second-year operating again Cam Skattebo — also can keep wholesome, the Giants’ enchancment might occur fast.
Predicted 2026 starter: Jalen Hurts
Hurts is only a 12 months faraway from being a Tremendous Bowl MVP quarterback, however his inventory has fallen after a poor 2025 season through which he ranked solely twentieth in QBR. If he would not enhance in 2026, will we be placing him in a distinct class on this train subsequent 12 months? Given the Eagles’ observe report, I wager so.
Predicted 2026 starter: Brock Purdy
Purdy is coming off a wonderful 2025 season … when he was on the sphere. The 9 video games he did play had been stellar, producing a 72.8 QBR that ranked second solely to Maye’s. And when Purdy was energetic, the 49ers usually appeared like the perfect offense in soccer (particularly after they weren’t enjoying the Seahawks). If Purdy can keep wholesome, the 49ers will likely be contenders once more.
Predicted 2026 starter: Sam Darnold
Even after a second straight 14-win marketing campaign and main the Seahawks to the Tremendous Bowl title, it is nonetheless affordable to ask which Darnold the Seahawks will get going ahead. He was legitimately lights-out within the first half of the season however then was one of many least environment friendly QBs within the second half. He completed someplace between ok and really good within the playoffs.
In the long run, Darnold completed nineteenth in QBR, however the Seahawks clearly really feel fairly good about him heading into 2026 contemplating how final season turned out.
Predicted 2026 starter: Baker Mayfield
Mayfield began 2025 scorching however cooled off to complete twelfth in QBR and with a minus-2% completion fee over anticipated, per Subsequent Gen Stats. Mayfield can play at a ok stage that the Buccaneers can win the division after which some with help round him. And given his price — $40 million in 2026 — it is smart for the Buccaneers to stay on the identical trajectory at quarterback.
Predicted 2026 starter: Cam Ward
Final 12 months’s first total decide completed final in QBR amongst qualifying quarterbacks. However contemplating what he went by means of as a rookie — an early-season teaching change, no dashing assault and a lackluster receiving group — Ward confirmed sufficient flashes to justify the optimism towards him when he entered the league. He will likely be Tennessee’s starter for the primary season of the Robert Saleh period.
Predicted 2026 starter: Jayden Daniels
After a stellar rookie marketing campaign, Daniels’ sophomore season was an unequivocal disappointment, with knee, elbow and hamstring accidents limiting him to solely seven video games in 2025. However maybe extra worrying was Daniels’ effectivity when he was on the sphere, along with his QBR dropping from 67.7 in 2024 to 44.7 in 2025, which might have ranked twenty third had he performed sufficient to qualify. It prompts a query — was 2025 an outlier, or was it 2024?
