Nottingham Forest’s determination to nominate Vitor Pereira as their fourth everlasting head coach this season raised some eyebrows, given the numerous position he performed in teeing up Wolves’ depressing Premier League marketing campaign.
However his reign obtained off to a flying begin final week, with Forest placing one foot within the Europa League’s spherical of 16 by beating Fenerbahce 3-0 within the first leg of their play-off tie.
Pereira was unable to observe up that profitable journey to Istanbul with a constructive Premier League outcome in opposition to Liverpool, although his workforce may rely themselves unlucky to lose 1-0 on Sunday.
Pereira could even have the choice of rotating his squad on Thursday, when Fener journey to the Metropolis Floor for the second leg, needing a monumental turnaround to advance.
Forward of the sport, we dive into the Opta information to select all the important thing gamers and storylines to observe.
Again in @EuropaLeague motion on Thursday. pic.twitter.com/pEdx7easWW
— Nottingham Forest (@NFFC) February 24, 2026
What’s anticipated?
So far as the tie as an entire goes, the Opta supercomputer is siding firmly with Forest – they’re assigned a 99% probability of progressing, in comparison with Fenerbahce’s 1%.
And Forest are additionally backed relating to the second leg. Throughout 10,000 pre-match simulations, Forest gained 58.2%, in comparison with Fener’s 20.1%. The possibilities of a draw are rated at 21.7%.
Thursday’s contest marks simply the second aggressive assembly between these groups.
Fener have now misplaced seven of their final 10 video games in opposition to English groups, profitable simply a type of.
Fener have additionally gained simply one in all 10 away European matches (together with qualifiers) in England (two attracts, seven defeats), profitable 1-0 at Manchester United in October 1996 within the Champions League.
Forest saving their greatest for Europe
Forest’s Premier League marketing campaign has definitely not gone to plan, with neither Ange Postecoglou nor Sean Dyche capable of arrest their slide after the shock dismissal of Nuno Espirito Santo in September.
However it has been a really completely different story in Europe, and this competitors provides them a reliable shot at qualifying for subsequent season’s Champions League.
The Opta supercomputer makes them joint-third favourites to raise the Europa League trophy, with an 8% probability.
Solely overwhelming favourites Aston Villa (39%) and Roma (9%) did so in additional of our event simulations, with Lyon and Porto assigned the identical probability as Forest.
Forest are eyeing a 3rd straight Europa League win on Thursday, having final gained three successive main European fixtures within the 1983-84 UEFA Cup.
In fact, even a two-goal defeat right here would see Forest advance, and so they have been glorious at limiting their opponents on the Metropolis Floor.
Forest have saved a clear sheet of their final three dwelling Europa League video games, whereas they’ve a 65% dwelling clear sheet ratio in main European soccer, with 17 in 26 video games.
Amongst groups to play 20 or extra dwelling video games in Europe, solely Sampdoria (67%) and Ipswich City (67%) have a better proportion.
Murillo, Igor Jesus and Morgan Gibbs-White had been on the right track in Turkiye final week, and Forest completely deserved their margin of victory after making an attempt 23 pictures and placing up 2.74 anticipated targets (xG), in comparison with six pictures and 0.48 xG for Fener.
Forest have been much more spectacular as an attacking power on the continent, averaging 2 targets, 16.8 pictures, 7 pictures on the right track and a couple of.26 xG per Europa League match in 2025-26. Within the Premier League, these figures stand at 0.93 targets, 13 pictures, 3.93 pictures on the right track and 1.18 xG.
The one time Forest have scored extra targets in a serious European marketing campaign than their 18 this season, in the meantime, was after they gained the European Cup in 1978-79 (19).
Fener face near-impossible process
Throughout their whole historical past in main European competitions, Fener have misplaced the primary leg of a knockout-stage tie on 26 events, and by no means as soon as have they recovered to progress.
So, overturning a three-goal deficit in opposition to a workforce which have solely conceded seven occasions in 9 Europa League matches this season seems to be to be a mammoth process.
For the reason that Europa League rebranded in 2009-10, there has solely been one occasion of a workforce progressing after shedding the primary leg of a knockout tie by three targets – Valencia recovered from a 3-0 loss to beat Basel 5-3 after further time within the 2013-14 quarter-finals.
However Pereira will nonetheless be cautious in regards to the prospect of constructing wholesale adjustments, given Fener’s tendency to stay round in video games.
Domenico Tedesco’s workforce are nonetheless unbeaten after 23 video games of the Turkish Tremendous Lig season, however they’ve drawn eight of these matches to path leaders Galatasaray by two factors.
They missed the chance to go high of the desk on Monday, drawing 1-1 at dwelling to Kasimpasa, with most of their key gamers taking part in the complete 90 minutes.
Forest are overwhelming favourites to progress after inflicting Fener’s joint-biggest dwelling defeat within the Europa League (additionally 3-0 to Borussia Monchengladbach in 2012 and Olympiacos in 2021), however Pereira will nonetheless need his workforce to do an expert job.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Nottingham Forest – Igor Jesus
No participant has scored extra targets than Jesus within the Europa League this season (seven), which is the outright-best tally for the membership in a serious European marketing campaign, overtaking Gary Birtles’ six targets within the 1978-79 European Cup.
Jesus is averaging a objective each 54 minutes. Within the Premier League, he has netted simply twice, at a fee of 1 objective each 757 minutes, whereas underperforming his 4.31 xG. I
n distinction, Jesus’ Europa League haul has come from probabilities price 4.9 xG, exhibiting simply how scientific he has been in entrance of objective.
Fenerbahce – Anderson Talisca
Talisca has scored 4 targets and supplied one help within the Europa League this season, with Karem Akturkoglu the one participant to match these figures for Fener.
The Brazilian additionally has 13 targets and three assists within the Tremendous Lig this marketing campaign, with solely Eldor Shomurodov (20), Marco Asensio (19) and Paul Onuachu (18) boasting extra objective involvements within the competitors.
