The trail to NASCAR’s ultimate 4 is large open this 12 months

If there was ever a 12 months within the NASCAR Cup Sequence playoff period that the preliminary seeding was prognostically irrelevant, this might be the one.

Think about that Shane Van Gisbergen, who’s most actually not profitable this championship, is a No. 6 seed resulting from his 4 street course wins, whereas three-time champion Joey Logano is a No. 12 seed.

An argument that might be made is that No. 16 seed Alex Bowman might attain the ultimate 4 whereas it’s a certainty that one (or extra) of the perceived favorites in Kyle Larson, William Byron, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney and Christopher Bell won’t.

From that standpoint, there’s a large quantity of intrigue as a result of their playoff factors really imply one thing however either side of the contender/pretender pool are going to maneuver nearer to the imply on this first spherical and past.

It makes for a very dynamic set-up, and irrespective of the place you stand about this polarizing format, it would produce a well-recognized ultimate 4 of some form by the primary weekend of November at Phoenix Raceway. And regardless of all of the variables, Chase Elliott says the identical forged of characters will certainly be within the combine come the penultimate race at Martinsville Speedway in October.

“I feel it is the identical crowd,” mentioned Elliott through the Media Day occasion in Uptown Charlotte on Wednesday. “Personally, though there have been quite a lot of completely different winners, I feel you must undergo the identical crowd.”

That crowd in current seasons, not less than through the NextGen period, has been Logano, Blaney, Bell, Byron, Hamlin and Elliott. Positive, Ross Chastain rode the wall into the championship race in 2022 and Tyler Reddick rode his common season championship into it final 12 months however the math factors in the direction of some mixture of these six within the Spherical of 8.

Bell does not see an apparent favourite inside that group both.

“No, it appears like there may be much less and fewer than we’ve had the final couple of years,” he mentioned. 

The format

The format begins with 16 completely different drivers and three rounds comprised of three races that get rid of 4 drivers at a time.

Similar to the common season, eligible drivers robotically advance with a win, however they will additionally get in by way of championship factors. That’s the place the seeding performs an element. Drivers are reseeded initially of the playoffs, and every spherical, based mostly on the variety of playoff factors they’ve gathered so far.

This is the reason Larson begins the Spherical of 16 with 32 extra factors than Bowman. The factors additionally reset for the beginning of every spherical, except for the 4 drivers who have been eradicated — these playoff factors giving the highest contenders a higher margin of error as the sphere begins to tighten.

As soon as the ultimate 4 are established, they race amongst themselves within the finale at Phoenix Raceway, the perfect finisher amongst them profitable the championship — no championship factors, no playoff factors and simply the requirement to beat the opposite three head-to-head.

The Playoff Grid

Kyle Larson +26
William Byron +26
Denny Hamlin +23
Ryan Blaney +20
Christopher Bell +17
Shane Van Gisbergen +16
Chase Elliott +7
Chase Briscoe +4
Bubba Wallace +2
Austin Cindric +2
Ross Chastain +2
Joey Logano +1

Josh Berry -1
Tyler Reddick -1
Austin Dillon -2
Alex Bowman -5

Penske good

Joey Logano, Workforce Penske Ford

Photograph by: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Photos

Of these probably favorites, be aware that the Workforce Penske trio have gained the championship in every of the primary three years of the present NextGen period, and with another finale at Phoenix earlier than it strikes again to Homestead-Miami Speedway, they’re nonetheless the favorites ought to they run the gamut.

Even Logano doesn’t take any inventory in being ‘below the radar’ as a No. 12 seed as a result of he’s the defending champion who triumphed regardless of lengthy odds final 12 months. In reality, some would argue that he fully broke the format with a season-long physique of labor that was arguably the least spectacular within the historical past of the game. 

“I feel we’ve type of ruined the below the radar factor at this level, which is ok,” Logano mentioned. “It’s simply type of a novel place for us to be in. I feel for those who have a look at our stats, individuals would say you’re below the radar however I feel they have a look at the entire physique of labor during the last 10 years they usually’d say, ‘Properly, I don’t suppose they’re below the radar that a lot.

“It’s a really distinctive spot to be in. I feel now we have a very strong race workforce within the playoffs and that’s why I stay up for this a part of the 12 months yearly.”

Logano gained the 2022 and 2024 championships whereas Blaney did it in 2023, every at Phoenix. So, is there any motive Blaney would not count on the tendencies to proceed into the quickly approaching winter?

“You’ve bought to get there first,” Blaney mentioned. “It’s a gauntlet to get there. Everybody thinks it’s simple to get to Phoenix and also you go win Phoenix. You’ve bought to undergo 9 weeks of hell to get there. It’s robust however I do suppose it’s good to have all three of our automobiles and (Josh Berry within the Penske-affiliated Wooden Brothers) 21 in it, so it’s nearly execution by the rounds, minimizing errors and never falling right into a gap.

“I do like the place our group is at, our firm as an entire, with tempo and folks and issues like that and simply preparation. You simply hope you’ll be able to execute when the day comes and attempt to simply take it one race at a time. That’s all you are able to do.”

After which there’s Austin Cindric, who is mostly acknowledged amongst the primary 4 to be reduce in brackets already crammed out, together with one from Hamlin himself. 

 “That’s the primary I’m listening to of it,” Cindric mentioned. “Okay, I assume we’ll have to observe.”

The underdogs

Shane van Gisbergen, Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet

Photograph by: Chris Graythen – Getty Photos

Who else past Cindric did Hamlin have as the primary 4 eradicated after the Bristol Night time Race? That might be Van Gisbergen, Berry and Austin Dillon.

These are all low-hanging fruit alternatives, clearly, as their our bodies of labor counsel not having sufficient efficiency to cope with the opposite 12 with out some small pattern dimension shenanigans. ‘SVG’ is a street course specialist who in any other case completed twenty fifth within the common season standings. Dillon completed twenty sixth and superior by way of his second consecutive Richmond victory earlier within the month. Berry was twenty first and Cindric was fifteenth.

Cindric gained the race at Gateway final 12 months, and he is aware of that the primary spherical at all times tends to function some small pattern dimension shenanigans. Darlington is difficult and Logano was eradicated from the primary spherical at Bristol final 12 months.

“Yearly a few third of the playoff grid hits a wall (at Darlington) figuratively and type of stunts the primary spherical,” Cindric mentioned. “I might count on a few of that. It’s a difficult observe.”

Cindric mentioned he ‘doesn’t care’ that he’s considered as an underdog whereas Dillon makes use of it as motivation.

“I at all times use it as gas however I really feel like I’ve actually good confidence and a peaceful about it,” Dillon mentioned. “I don’t have something to show in that sense. I’m simply actually pleased with the place we’re at as a corporation as a result of first quarter of the season I might have mentioned in a different way.

“However now I really feel assured. I really feel good that we are able to execute and make a superb push. We’re one of many final groups to win on a daily oval, so…”

Van Gisbergen is essentially the most fascinating case out of the 4 as a result of there may be already a well-recognized situation during which he advances inside the championship event, albeit final 12 months within the Xfinity Sequence. He gained 4 occasions and earned 22 playoff factors, which means he has a 16-point buffer forward of the cutline.

Said merely, he has a 3rd of a race benefit heading into the Southern 500 that simply may be sufficient to coast to the second spherical if he can merely run about fifteenth, which he did at Richmond two weeks in the past.

“I feel it’s simply going to be legislation of averages for us, proper,” mentioned Van Gisbergen. “We’ve bought to be above common and that’s the shot we’re going to need to make to get by. We’ve bought to have three first rate finishes and we’ll be capable to get by the spherical, proper?

“However I don’t know in regards to the factors complete, what number of sure factors is the common to get by. However I do know I have to get higher to make it work.”

And if he could make the second spherical, it accommodates the Roval, and the third spherical accommodates the at all times unpredictable Talladega, which means there may be not less than the faint pathway for the No. 88 Trackhouse workforce to succeed in the championship race.

“Each race is hard however we’ve had an incredible run on the street programs,” mentioned Van Gisbergen. “Hopefully it continues, but it surely actually gained’t be simple, that’s for certain. If we get to that time, it’ll be a pleasant one for us.”

The dogfight

Ryan Blaney wins the ultimate race of the common season, beating 5 drivers in a must-win state of affairs

Photograph by: Jonathan Bachman – Getty Photos

Past the discuss of favorites and underdogs, with such a small pattern dimension in every spherical, each three races are simply going to be a dogfight for stage factors, the perfect end potential and the pursuit of win and advance. In the end, profitable renders each different end result moot as finest articulated by Hamlin.

“Our common end drops yearly within the Playoffs,” Hamlin mentioned. “We run higher yearly within the ultimate 10 than what we do within the common season. It’s only a matter of all the opposite variables.

“Does somebody who’s approach beneath the reduce that ran horrible, do they win and get in and knock us out? Or does somebody trip the wall and knock us out? Once more, I’m so tainted that I’m simply very nonchalant with like ‘let’s simply win races’ after which we’ll see the place it stacks up.”

To his level, Hamlin very nicely might be eradicated by somebody like his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Chase Briscoe, who will probably have to win his approach into Phoenix.

“As soon as (we) get to the Spherical of 8, at our factors deficit, there’s an opportunity you are going to virtually need to win the race,” Briscoe mentioned. “Any individual’s going to have the ability to level their approach into the ultimate 4 however realistically for us, it is most likely not going to be an choice.

“We’re already beginning 20-30 factors behind, in order that’s the large factor I feel for us is now we have to have the ability to execute in these first two rounds and hopefully win a race or two. If we are able to try this and shorten that hole by way of playoff factors, it places us in a greater spot.”

Keep in mind that final 12 months, all three Spherical of 8 races have been gained by drivers who have been beneath the cutline within the type of Logano, Reddick and Blaney. They knocked out drivers with higher on-paper seasons like Hamlim, Bell and Larson.

In the end, there simply comes some extent the place profitable this championship will probably be outlined by profitable a race when that’s the solely path ahead.

Bowman secured the ultimate playoff spot on factors, with out having gained a race this season, however he is aware of that’s going to have to alter earlier than the season ends if he intends to succeed in Phoenix.

“Actually, I feel you’ll be able to ‘consistency’ your approach to the Spherical of 8 fairly solidly,” he mentioned, making the air quotes together with his fingers. “Previous that, you’ve bought to win races.”