The factors battle to look at in Charlotte elimination race

Leaving Kansas, there are six drivers feeling comfy of their playoff place with 40+ factors between themselves and the dreaded elimination zone.

Joey Logano and Ross Chastain usually are not amongst them, and all eyes will probably be on these two subsequent weekend on the Charlotte ROVAL.

Logano misplaced 11 factors on the cutline after a tumultuous weekend, and is now simply 13 factors forward. Chastain truly misplaced some extent from -12 to -13, however the driver he is chasing has shifted from Chase Briscoe to Logano. Briscoe is now at +21, so actually not out of the woods but both.

There are three different drivers beneath the cutline as nicely, however they’re a bit additional again than Chastain. After a heartbreaking loss on Sunday, Bubba Wallace is now 26 factors again, his 23XI Racing teammate Tyler Reddick is 29 factors behind, and Austin Cindric is basically in a must-win state of affairs at 48 factors down.

Nevertheless, we will deal with simply two drivers right here, and the 13 factors that separate Chastain and Logano — a margin that might be largely erased in a single stage. Each of those drivers will probably be hyper-fixated on stage factors at Charlotte, however which one has the upper-hand in the case of turning each left and proper?

Whereas Chastain earned his first profession Cup win (COTA 2022) and his most up-to-date Cup pole (Watkins Glen 2024) on a street course, Logano hasn’t received at a street course in over a decade (Watkins Glen 2015). No matter that, these are two of essentially the most aggressive drivers on the grid, so that you may be sure that each of them will probably be doing no matter they will to get their vehicles to the entrance this weekend.

Chastain has a slight edge at street/road programs in 2025

There have been 5 street/road programs run thus far this yr, and whereas Chastain has outscored Logano in 4 of them, solely as soon as did he handle to realize 13 factors on the three-time champion (Mexico Metropolis). 

Chastain is averaging a end of 14.4 at such occasions this yr, whereas Logano is at 15.8, so there’s not that a lot distinction within the remaining ending outcome both.

The place Chastain might actually discover a bonus is qualifying, particularly with the brief 25-lap phases on the ROVAL. The Trackhouse driver has a mean beginning place of 8.4 at street/road programs this yr with three begins inside the highest 5, whereas Logano is at 15.4 and has not certified increased than ninth. 

It seems to be benefit Chastain, however once more, he’ll should do greater than that to make up the present distinction. As of proper now, Logano wins the tiebreaker (which is greatest end within the spherical) together with his fourth-place end at New Hampshire, so he truly wants 14 factors.

Logano higher on the ROVAL total

Ross Chastain, Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet; Joey Logano, Workforce Penske Ford

Picture by: Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire through Getty Photos

And whereas Logano is not any street course king, the stats abruptly shift into his favor if we solely have a look at the ROVAL lately. In 2024, Logano completed eighth and positioned second in each phases. Chastain scored 38 fewer factors as he positioned twenty eighth after getting collected in some mid-race incidents.

It is price noting that Chastain wasn’t within the playoffs final yr and wasn’t actually involved with scoring stage factors in that race, nevertheless it was the alternative in 2023 with Chastain attempting to flee elimination whereas Logano was now not a part of the title battle. On that day, Chastain scored eight extra factors than him. Even nonetheless, Logano completed fifth whereas Chastain was in tenth.

The primary race of the Subsequent Gen period on the ROVAL was in 2022. On this state of affairs, each had been factors racing as a part of the playoffs. Logano went out and received Stage 1 and Chastain truly received Stage 2, however the Trackhouse driver ended up hitting the wall and ending thirty seventh, a number of laps down. Logano ended up 18th, and clearly outscored him there. These two drivers truly went on to complete 1-2 within the championship standings that yr, with Logano taking the crown.

So, latest historical past says that Chastain will achieve floor, however he’ll want to search out some extra, particularly since Logano has completed increased than Chastain within the final three ROVAL races.

But when Chastain had been to have a secret weapon, then it might be his Kiwi teammate within the No. 88 automotive. There is no doubt that Chastain will spend this upcoming race week working intently with teammate Shane van Gisbergen, a street course ace not like any NASCAR has seen earlier than. He has received the final 4 consecutive street/road course races, and is the defending pole-sitter on the ROVAL. Chastain might want to lean closely on the three-time Supercar champ as he tries to bridge the hole between himself and the stealthily constant Penske No. 22.

Logano vs. Chastain on street/road programs in 2025