Week 13 is within the books. It was a chippy one! There was loads of — because the broadcasters would say — pushing and shoving in Patriots-Giants, Jaguars-Titans and Steelers-Payments. Because the climate will get colder and playoff hopes dwindle, so the skirmishes start. Simply know that if any of you hit my editors late, I will be coming over with unhealthy intentions.
Each Tuesday, I am going to spin the earlier week of NFL motion ahead, what the most important storylines imply and what comes subsequent. We’ll search measured reactions to everybody’s overreactions, rejoice the thrilling stuff that no one is appreciating and spotlight what you may need missed.
There will probably be movie. There will probably be stats (an entire part of them). And there will probably be enjoyable.
Bounce to a piece:
Massive Factor: Panic meter for 5 groups
Second Take: It is OK for the Payments to run
Mailbag: Answering questions from … you
Subsequent Ben Stats: Wild Week 13 stats
The Massive Factor: Panic meter
Each week, this column will kick off with one extensive take a look at a key recreation, participant or development from the earlier slate of NFL motion. What does it imply for the remainder of the season? This week, we’re 5 playoff contenders to gauge how panicked they need to be about current skids.
Panic meter: DEFCON 1,000,000
(Sure, I perceive that the larger DEFCON numbers are literally much less extreme. “DEFCON 1” simply would not sound pretty much as good.)
The Steelers’ 2025 offseason didn’t work. They pursued Aaron Rodgers within the perception that the 41-year-old quarterback had one other yr of championship-caliber play in him, and he clearly would not. They swapped security Minkah Fitzpatrick for Jalen Ramsey within the perception that Ramsey may nonetheless play cornerback and provides them unprecedented versatility within the defensive backfield, and he could not and hasn’t. They prolonged T.J. Watt within the perception that the 30-year-old edge rusher’s recreation would age effectively, and it hasn’t. They flipped George Pickens for DK Metcalf within the perception that Pickens’ behavioral complications weren’t value his manufacturing at receiver, which they might backfill with Metcalf, they usually have been improper.
It’s obnoxious to say that all of us noticed this coming, however usually talking, we did. Watt’s explosiveness tailed off via the 2024 season earlier than his damage and has dropped once more this yr. His get-off was 0.75 seconds in 2022, then 0.79 in 2023, 0.83 in 2024 and now 0.87 in 2025. That full tenth of a second issues for a velocity rusher equivalent to Watt, who has delivered a stress fee under 10% in every of the previous two seasons.
With a deep and younger group of edge rushers behind him, the Steelers have been well-positioned to get out a yr early moderately than a yr late. However transferring on from Watt did not match their timeline, so he was prolonged at a $41 million yearly — larger than the typical annual worth of Myles Garrett’s contract. Garrett has 19 sacks this season; Watt has seven.
Watt is not a blue-chipper, and with Ramsey relegated to security to cover his diminishing athleticism, there are not any top-tier gamers left on Pittsburgh’s protection. Due to all of the veteran contracts, the Steelers’ protection is second in cap spending however twentieth in success fee. The shortage of group velocity kills them in explosive play fee, too; they’re twenty sixth in surrendering each explosive passes and explosive runs.
There are schematic frustrations as effectively, because the Steelers’ run protection is a travesty of errors alongside the defensive position and at linebacker. Buffalo ran for 249 yards on Pittsburgh on Sunday within the absence of first-round defensive deal with Derrick Harmon (knee); it was essentially the most dashing yardage surrendered by the Steelers at dwelling since 1975. They cannot play an excessive amount of zone protection, both — it is laborious to cover these linebackers.
The offensive points are related however siloed in a single participant: Rodgers. No two methods round it, Rodgers is among the worst beginning quarterbacks within the league. He can’t drive the soccer however hates to throw interceptable balls, so he flutters passes on the fringe of his receivers’ vary. He additionally hates getting hit, so he removes the ball sooner than virtually another passer, which negates his elite post-snap processing. As soon as the premier magician in extending performs and throwing on the transfer, Rodgers is now one of many worst QBs on dropbacks longer than 2.5 seconds. Solely Cam Ward, Joe Flacco and Jaxson Dart have worse success charges on such performs.
Recreation planning for Rodgers and the Steelers is extraordinarily simple. Prime corners journey with Metcalf (Christian Benford did this week, and DJ Turner II did two weeks earlier than) and press him on the line, disrupting the timing of Rodgers’ major quick-game goal. Rodgers will both throw up a prayer to an uninspiring downfield choice (Calvin Austin III, Roman Wilson) or verify all the way down to operating backs Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell. If he is fortunate, it’s going to be tight finish Darnell Washington.
A couple of instances per recreation, a kind of after-the-catch athletes will get a giant achieve. Warren is fast and laborious to deal with; Washington is big and laborious to deal with. Amazingly, 66.4% of Rodgers’ passing yards have come after the catch, which is second solely to 2011 A.J. Feeley up to now 15 years. That is 713 quarterbacking seasons value of pattern!
That is fully untenable. Rodgers’ 5.7 air yards per try is 703rd out of these 713 seasons; his minus-3.5 air yards to the sticks is 705th. Rodgers can’t and won’t throw the soccer downfield but stays in complete management of the offense on the line of scrimmage and frequently checks out of runs and into passes. The passing recreation is totally insufficient. This, like each different facet of the Steelers’ season, was foreseeable.
0:58
Aaron Rodgers calls out WRs, says Steelers earned followers’ boos
Brooke Pryor experiences on Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers following their Week 13 loss to the Payments.
The Steelers’ short-term outlook is bleak. Their Week 14 recreation in opposition to the Ravens is winnable, nevertheless it’s on the street in opposition to a bodily and ascending protection. If Pittsburgh loses, it’s going to slip under .500 and lose management of the AFC North, which is its solely path into the playoffs.
The long-term outlook is bleaker. There isn’t a quarterback of the longer term on the roster, and the remainder of the cap sheet is loaded with unhealthy contracts. Metcalf is due $31 million subsequent yr, Watt is due $42 million, and Ramsey is due $17.9 million. The Steelers must recuperate from their 2025 spending spree, they usually’ll possible don’t have any {hardware} — not even a division championship — to point out for it.
The proof that Mike Tomlin is the chief to tug them from this spiral is diminishing quickly. Whereas I stay assured that Tomlin is an efficient coach (take a look at how most of the Steelers’ younger gamers or veterans on small contracts are optimistic contributors), it is clear that his overarching organizational philosophy wants modernization. If there ever was an offseason to commerce Tomlin, rip the roster all the way down to the studs and begin to rebuild, it is this one.
Panic meter: It is the start of the top
I can clarify the Lions’ current losses fairly simply. The Lions went 0-for-3 on fourth down of their Thanksgiving loss, whereas the Packers went 2-for-2 (with some officiating help besides). Within the loss in Philadelphia, the Lions have been 0-for-5 on fourth down. Within the loss to J.J. McCarthy (the Lions actually misplaced to J.J. McCarthy) and the Vikings, they have been 1-for-3 within the purple zone, and the Vikings acquired 17 factors off three quick fields.
The Lions have been shedding in high-leverage moments recently. However these are the type of moments wherein losses change into wins ought to one little factor break one other approach. I belief Dan Campbell and a veteran Lions group to endure that valley and emerge via the opposite aspect slightly luckier.
With that mentioned, the Lions are 7-5, and that is motive for panic. Homefield benefit is a gigantic deal for Detroit due to its quarterback. Jared Goff, a California native with small palms, doesn’t play effectively in chilly climate underneath the celebs. Over his profession, Goff has a 68.2% completion share indoors, however that drops to 57.4% when taking part in outdoor in temperatures under 50 levels. His touchdown-to-interception ratio falls from 3.5 to 1.8, and his dropback success fee falls from 49.8% to 40.5%.
Lions followers do not like after I reference this stat as a result of Goff has been higher throughout his Lions tenure when outdoor and within the chilly relative to how he carried out with the Rams. That is solely barely true. He has a 42.7% success fee with the Lions in these spots, versus 39.2% with the Rams. He has a 60.3% completion fee with the Lions, versus 54.8% with the Rams. He has been a little higher, however the difficulty was nonetheless clear and apparent in opposition to the Eagles on “Sunday Evening Soccer” in Week 11. His grip on the ball falters, and his accuracy nosedives.
The Lions have performed all however certainly one of their current playoff video games at dwelling, and the lone street recreation was in balmy Santa Clara, California. With solely an 8% likelihood to win their division, based on ESPN’s Soccer Energy Index projections, the Lions will possible should journey via the postseason. Inexperienced Bay, Chicago, Philadelphia and even Seattle are open-air stadiums in chilly climates. It is a brutal draw for Goff’s specific weaknesses.
It would not cease there. Goff’s different main weak point — his lack of pocket escapability — has been hammered of late. The Lions’ inside offensive line is markedly worse this season than it was in Goff’s earlier seasons. Rookie proper guard Tate Ratledge has changed Kevin Zeitler with common play, whereas Graham Glasgow has did not fill Frank Ragnow’s huge footwear at middle. The Lions tried to get Ragnow again, however he failed his bodily. Left guard Christian Mahogany went down for the season with an damage, and Kayode Awosika has struggled in reduction. Dangerous inside safety is a matter for each quarterback however is double damaging for a quarterback who lacks mobility. Goff has to hold within the pocket, and as such, he is getting hit — so much.
In reality, Goff has been hit on 20.2% of his dropbacks, simply the best of his Lions tenure. It is under solely his disastrous 2016 rookie season earlier than Sean McVay arrived in Los Angeles to rescue his profession. These hits accumulate on Goff, who deserves credit score for his toughness. However he is not Matthew Stafford or Josh Allen. He is not constructed to maintain this degree of injury, and his inside clock will speed up on lengthy and late downs when he sees blitz appears.
The Lions’ offensive line was among the many league’s finest in Goff’s first few years in Detroit, however these days are behind us. Moreover the inside expertise drain, left deal with Taylor Decker is exhibiting indicators of his age, too. With out elite run blocking, Detroit faces extra third-and-longs. With out elite move safety, Goff struggles extra on these downs. The offense loses an edge. It is not a foul unit, nevertheless it is not elite anymore.
The protection can also be operating into points. Below new defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard, the Lions stay dedicated to taking part in man protection at above-average charges and on high-leverage downs. The Lions have run man protection on 44.6% of their defensive snaps, simply essentially the most within the league. On late downs, they’re at 68.7% (once more, essentially the most). Within the purple zone, they’re at 69.0% (third most).
Being predictable isn’t good. The Packers shredded the Lions on late downs and within the purple zone with man-beating ideas, and the Lions’ incapacity to move off rub routes created simple touchdowns for Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love. However the difficulty is not simply schematic; it is also personnel. For as a lot because the Lions like cornerback Amik Robertson’s disposition and management, he struggles with measurement and velocity, as evidenced by the lengthy Christian Watson landing this previous Thursday. And Detroit invested a 2024 first-round decide in Terrion Arnold within the hopes he could be a shutdown CB1, and he merely hasn’t been. Now he is on the shelf with season-ending shoulder surgical procedure, and the depth behind Robertson and D.J. Reed will probably be sorely examined.
Detroit would not have the personnel to run the coverages it desires to run. Security Kerby Joseph will come again from his knee damage finally, and the Lions are nonetheless fourth finest in success fee when taking part in man protection. However playoff opponents can have deep rosters of move catchers (as was the case with the Packers), aggressive quarterbacks and exact playcalling. It is laborious for Detroit to pivot to taking part in zone, as its base packages put too many linebackers on the sector. The Lions must dwell on this risky defensive type, however I am undecided their corners have three dominant video games in opposition to the Packers, Seahawks and Rams in them.
It is not honest to say that the Lions’ window has closed. The identical gamers who created the window — Goff, operating again Jahmyr Gibbs, left deal with Penei Sewell, receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, defensive deal with Alim McNeill and Joseph — are nonetheless there. However the Lions’ window is formally transitioning from an affordable roster to an costly one, and the thinning margins are evident. GM Brad Holmes must hit on gamers in these subsequent couple of drafts — move rusher, inside offensive line, cornerback — in an effort to maintain the ship afloat as presently constructed. In any other case, a tender roster reset will probably be required.
Panic meter: One week away from all-out mayhem
The Colts are on the cliff’s edge.
Let’s rewind the clock a month. It is Sunday, Nov. 2. The Colts simply suffered their second loss 27-20 to the Steelers in Pittsburgh. It was a ridiculous recreation. The Colts’ offense moved the ball at will however turned it over 5 instances (and particular groups contributed a sixth giveaway). Like most groups that hand over the ball six instances, the Colts misplaced. Nothing to fret about. Nothing to see right here.
Two days later on the commerce deadline, normal supervisor Chris Ballard dealt two first-round picks and receiver Adonai Mitchell to the Jets for cornerback Sauce Gardner. Heck yeah. The AFC is gettable. The Colts had discovered the following Baker Mayfield in Daniel Jones, who appears like a renewed man in Shane Steichen’s offense. After an uncharacteristically aggressive offseason of free agent acquisitions (Charvarius Ward, Cam Bynum), why not make an all-in commerce and assault the chance this season? Positive, the value is excessive. Positive, this all however locks them into Jones as their QB for the following three years. However a Lombardi Trophy is in sight.
Since that day, the Colts are 1-2, with solely an additional time win in opposition to the Falcons of their pocket. The clock has struck midnight on Jones, who has seen his play underneath stress completely regress again to his Giants days. A fractured fibula throughout observe earlier than the Week 12 recreation in opposition to the Chiefs definitely hasn’t helped. However the Colts’ offensive line, which was elite via the primary half of the season, has bottomed out. Prime edge dashing duos in Pittsburgh, Atlanta and Houston have discovered success working via Indianapolis’ deal with pair of Bernhard Raimann and Braden Smith. Heart Tanor Bortolini, an asset within the operating recreation, can also be getting uncovered in move safety.
The Colts are additionally feeling warmth from their AFC South rivals. When Ballard made the commerce for Gardner, the Colts had a 3½-game lead on the two-time defending AFC South champion Texans, who have been 3-5. Houston has since received 4 straight, together with its Week 13 victory over the Colts, to achieve 7-5. It’s only one recreation again from Indianapolis and presently owns the tiebreaker. Equally, the Jaguars have been 5-3 on the time of the commerce — 1½ video games behind the Colts. Jacksonville has gone 3-1, shedding solely to the Texans, and now shares the identical 8-4 file as Indianapolis, with their first head-to-head recreation approaching.
1:20
Schefter: Colts’ early-season momentum appears to be gone
Adam Schefter joins “Get Up” and discusses the robust street for the Colts to get into the playoffs after Sunday’s loss to the Texans.
Only a nightmare roll of the cube proper after the Colts went all-in. A QB damage, two divisional rivals peaking and a few shut losses — and the cherry on prime is Gardner being out a number of weeks due to a calf pressure. He will not go on injured reserve (there’s little level this late within the season), however the hope is that he is again throughout the common season. That’s to say: not a assure.
When groups attain true contending standing with out elite quarterbacks, their basis tends to be very fragile. A lot has coalesced for these squads to excel with an imperfect quarterback that, if anyone joint in the home of playing cards wiggles, the whole operation falls. We will see this in Philadelphia, which collapsed in 2023, excelled in 2024 and is on the snapping point once more in 2025. Take into consideration how briskly the 2024 Vikings fell aside underneath Sam Darnold, and even the 2024 Lions with Jared Goff, or the injury-riddled 2025 Buccaneers with September MVP Baker Mayfield. When it is good, it is good. When it is unhealthy, it is unhealthy.
The excellent news for the Colts is that they constructed a giant cushion. Their 7-2 begin has insulated them throughout this fall to the place they’re nonetheless in a first-place tie with the Jaguars. Jacksonville is way from an ideal group, and even in its current surge, it has eked out additional time wins over the Raiders and Cardinals. The Jaguars are gettable.
Whereas the Colts have been by no means going to maintain their early-season historic scoring tempo, inevitable regression would not erase the ceiling altogether. The Colts’ offense has been higher than another offense within the AFC for a big stretch of this season. They have not had any main damage absences on that aspect of the ball, both — solely Jones is hampered. It is cheap to anticipate the Colts’ offense to bounce again to a good degree. I nonetheless belief it greater than I belief the offenses of Denver, Baltimore, Houston and Jacksonville.
However that perception has a one-week shelf life. Battle in opposition to Jacksonville’s protection — a posh group with a red-hot move rusher in Josh Hines-Allen — and the division would possibly slip totally out of attain. The offense is barely half the battle. The Colts’ protection must put forth a profitable effort with out Gardner and DeForest Buckner, who continues to be on injured reserve due to a neck damage.
Lose to the Jaguars, and the Gardner commerce would possibly finally go down as one of many worst midseason trades in NFL historical past. Beat the Jaguars, and the snowball stops rolling down the mountain simply earlier than it turns into an avalanche. No huge stakes or something!
Panic meter: Average to extreme
Let’s begin with the principle motive to not panic.
In Week 13, quarterback Lamar Jackson missed a walkthrough observe due to a toe damage. The earlier week, he missed two consecutive practices due to an ankle damage. The week earlier than that, he missed a observe due to knee soreness. All of this got here after lacking three video games (over 4 weeks) due to a hamstring damage.
Jackson is clearly not wholesome. In his 5 video games again from damage, he has run for 14, 36, 10, 11 and 27 yards — a mean of 19.6 yards per recreation. His profession common earlier than this season was 59.9 yards per recreation.
Gamers do not magically change into more healthy in Week 14. Soccer is a brutal sport, and every week of restoration hardly ever accounts for gathered put on on the physique, particularly this late within the season. It’s unreasonable to anticipate Jackson to all of a sudden change into extra wholesome and harmful as a runner. Ought to their season crumble right into a 9-8 end with no postseason berth, the 2025 Ravens could be removed from the primary playoff-caliber group to overlook the dance due to their quarterback’s well being.
However it’s not inconceivable that he will get more healthy the additional he will get from the hamstring damage. Once more: not going, however not inconceivable. A more healthy Jackson mitigates a few of the offensive line points, because the Ravens’ younger trench gamers — left guard Andrew Vorhees, proper guard Daniel Faalele and proper deal with Roger Rosengarten — have all underwhelmed this season. Vorhees rotated with third-round rookie Emery Jones Jr. at left guard this previous week in opposition to the Bengals. Jones is lastly wholesome, however a third-round rookie nonetheless on a studying curve will not be precisely elite reinforcement.
1:07
Ryan Clark: ‘The Baltimore Ravens are cooked’
Ryan Clark predicts that if the Ravens make the playoffs they’re going to be “one-and-done.”
The offensive line is not the one space wherein inside promotions and improvement have failed the Ravens. Baltimore’s move catchers merely usually are not ok for a postseason run. Zay Flowers — the Ravens’ nominal No. 1 — is gifted. However he isn’t a real field-tipping menace who calls for defensive consideration. Flowers has 340 yards after the catch on the season however solely 26 YAC over expectation, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. He is not creating yardage a lot as he is getting what he is anticipated to get.
Flowers could be a No. 2 receiver for many groups, however the larger difficulty in Baltimore is depth. Rashod Bateman, whom the Ravens prolonged on a three-year deal this offseason, has 0.8 yards per route run this season. He has been about as productive as Kalif Raymond, Tyler Lockett, Jamari Thrash and Jahan Dotson. Behind Bateman are DeAndre Hopkins (who has been effective as a task participant) and Devontez Walker (who has not been the deep menace the Ravens hoped he would grow to be).
Neither Bateman nor Flowers scare opposing defenses or problem one-on-one protection, and the identical is true for the Ravens’ tight ends. Mark Andrews was as soon as that participant, however age has sapped his explosiveness. This season, Andrews is averaging 6.4 yards per goal and 9.0 yards per reception; his earlier profession lows have been 7.5 and 11.6, respectively. Working mate Isaiah Doubtless, from whom the Ravens have been hoping for an emergence, stays an explosive participant however doesn’t shoulder excessive quantity as a move catcher.
As has usually been the case when the Ravens made postseason appearances up to now, they don’t seem to be harmful sufficient within the dropback passing recreation. Ought to they fall behind, as they did in opposition to the Bengals on Thursday night time, they can not throw their approach again into rivalry. It was already laborious when Jackson may scramble and create — now that he is restricted, the toothlessness of their offense is revealed.
The scariest non-Jackson participant final season was Derrick Henry, in fact, however Henry has misplaced a step. By NFL Subsequent Gen Stats monitoring, Henry is averaging 11.27 mph this season and has cleared 15 mph on 8.8% of his performs. Final season, he was at 11.52 mph, and he was over 15 mph 11.7% of the time. Watch him, and also you see a participant who can nonetheless devastate defenses with a runway, however he is stepping into that runway rather less usually.
The Ravens’ offense has taken a step again throughout the board. With no improvement or significant additions at move catcher, one other yr of attrition on Henry and poor play on the offensive line, the Ravens are laborious to take significantly as 2025 contenders at the same time as their protection continues to shine. A all of a sudden wholesome Jackson would shade within the strains some however not sufficient to beat a legit discipline of AFC defenses. Jackson will bounce again subsequent season as he heals, however work is required to bolster the offense in 2026 and past.
Panic meter: We have been right here earlier than (unclear if that is really excellent news)
Let’s drive a contrived comparability between this season and the Eagles’ 2023 season.
By way of 12 weeks in 2023, the Eagles have been 10-1. Their solely loss (I am going to offer you a billion {dollars} if this off the highest of your head) was to the Zach Wilson-led Jets. They’d simply crushed the Payments and the Chiefs in back-to-back weeks.
However even at 10-1, all of us knew there was some nonsense. Below new offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, the Eagles had a top-10 offense by most metrics (EPA per play, success fee, factors per drive), however the fan base was livid with him because the Eagles’ passing recreation ran extraordinarily cold and warm. The faculty-inspired offense was heavy on unfold formations, RPOs and QB runs — too easy, and blitzes confounded everybody from Johnson to younger quarterback Jalen Hurts.
The defensive numbers have been way more damning: twenty fifth in defensive EPA per play, twenty sixth in factors per drive allowed and twenty sixth in explosive play fee surrendered. New defensive coordinator Sean Desai was undoubtedly struggling, and the Eagles finally handed playcalling over to defensive analyst Matt Patricia. The Eagles misplaced 5 of their final six video games to complete second within the NFC East and acquired walloped 32-9 by the Bucs within the wild-card spherical.
We’re via 13 weeks in 2025. The Eagles are 8-4, which is a fairly correct reflection of the group. The defensive numbers are good this time — ninth in each EPA per play and factors per drive allowed — although there are some apparent considerations at No. 2 cornerback and in opposition to the run. It is the offensive numbers which might be clearly problematic. The Eagles are twenty third in factors per drive and twenty seventh in offensive success fee. The one offenses which might be worse are the Jets, Vikings, Raiders, Titans and Browns.
2:19
Stephen A.: Eagles are ‘coming aside on the seams’
Stephen A. Smith explains why he believes the Eagles’ Week 13 loss was worse than the Rams’ loss to the Panthers.
The final time the Eagles have been right here, they made a December playcalling change. It was on the opposite aspect of the ball, and it helped nothing. Apparently, no December playcalling change will come this season, as head coach Nick Sirianni voiced his confidence in first-year offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo after the Eagles’ Black Friday loss to the Bears. I might wager this vote of confidence has much less to do with Patullo and extra to do with the fruitless 2023 swap. A playcalling change this late within the season is just too little, too late.
As a result of the Eagles have been on this gap in 2023 after which received the Tremendous Bowl the very subsequent season, it is unwise to panic too laborious. The Eagles can say with confidence one thing the Colts and Lions cannot say: They’ve a championship components with their present quarterback. To recuperate it, the Eagles want an infusion of creativity on the offensive teaching workers (and massive enchancment throughout the offensive line, which has regressed in well being and efficiency this season), however this 2025 downswing doesn’t condemn the offense or the group to loss of life. We all know it may emerge from this.
However within the quick time period, it’s inconceivable to rank the Eagles among the many prime tier of NFC contenders. The offense is way too feeble. The philosophy for the reason that starting of 2024 was to keep away from turnovers, however the second the Eagles get a foul bounce on a fumble — as they’ve up to now two video games in opposition to the Cowboys and Bears (three fumbles misplaced) — they don’t have any dropback passing recreation to erase the deficit. The playcalling fails to fabricate simple touches for Saquon Barkley and A.J. Brown — two of the league’s finest playmakers — in a way that’s completely impermissible. With out proper deal with Lane Johnson, Hurts doesn’t belief his pockets. He additionally is not operating practically as a lot this season, which is clearly a conscientious alternative between him and/or the teaching workers. There isn’t a juice and no reduction coming across the nook.
The Eagles would possibly win a playoff recreation on the again of a fantastic defensive efficiency. However it’s inconceivable to rank them subsequent to the Rams, Seahawks and Packers as the category of the NFC. I feel they’re under the 49ers and Bears as effectively. Till new blood joins the offensive teaching workers, the Eagles can’t be taken significantly — and that will not occur instantly. Panic for 2025 is actual. Panic for 2026 and past is not needed.
Second Take: It is OK for the Payments to be a run-first group
ESPN’s “First Take” is understood for, effectively, offering the primary tackle issues — the moment reactions. Second Take will not be a spot for immediate reactions however moderately the place I am going to let the mud settle earlier than taking maybe a little bit of a contrarian view.
Buffalo Payments quarterback Josh Allen didn’t throw the soccer downfield on Sunday.
Actually. He had zero makes an attempt 20-plus yards downfield. In 136 video games throughout Allen’s profession, solely six have come with out a move 20-plus yards downfield. 4 of these six video games have come this season.
Because the deep ball vanishes from Allen’s recreation, his total air yards per try drops in live performance. Allen’s 7.3 air yards per try is a brand new profession low, and if that quantity holds, it’s going to be the eighth season in a row wherein Allen’s common depth of goal has dropped from the earlier season, encompassing yearly of his profession. (To be honest, rookie Josh Allen was hucking that factor. A lower was inevitable.)
Even in that backdrop, this recreation in opposition to the Steelers stands out. Allen averaged 1.6 air yards per try, virtually half the gap of his earlier single-game low (3.1). There have been solely 5 video games up to now 15 NFL seasons with an air yards per try under 2.0 yards.
It is clearly not good to have the whole passing recreation dwell inside 10 yards of the road of scrimmage. No person is in Orchard Park, New York, celebrating a totally realized offensive recreation plan that mirrored the Payments’ identification and demonstrated their prowess as an AFC contender.
Nonetheless … this was a really encouraging recreation for the Payments’ offense! It was an indication of development from offensive coordinator Joe Brady! It is the model of the offense that may really win a Tremendous Bowl!
Let’s begin with the plain: Each beginning tackles, Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown, have been out. Simply final week in opposition to the Texans, we noticed what would occur if Allen tried to hold within the pocket for any time frame, and that was with each beginning tackles taking part in (albeit Brown was clearly harm). In opposition to the Steelers, whose defensive power is the sting rush, it was essential to do away with the ball shortly. Simply because it was the shallowest depth of goal of Allen’s profession, it was his fifth quickest in time to throw at 2.46 seconds.
0:53
Payments play lights out in Week 13 win over Steelers
Alaina Getzenberg breaks down Payments efficiency in Payments 26-7 win over the Steelers.
How Buffalo removed the ball shortly was fascinating. In contrast to the sport in opposition to Houston, when Allen spent a lot of his time within the gun, Brady put Allen underneath middle on 37% of his dropbacks — a brand new excessive this season. The Payments faked a give on 37% of Allen’s dropbacks, as effectively (second highest). Within the first quarter, Allen had no under-center dropbacks. However by the second quarter, the under-center, play-action faux turned the featured cog of the offense, and the passing recreation awakened.
Why? As a result of the Payments have been operating the ball in dominant style. James Prepare dinner III ended the day with 32 carries for 144 yards. Ray Davis contributed one other 62 yards on 9 carries. Allen ran it eight extra instances for 38 yards. It’s perplexing to say a couple of group using the reigning MVP at quarterback, however the Payments’ offense has been remarkably higher this season when it commits to the bottom recreation.
Take into account the Payments’ irritating losses this season. In opposition to the Falcons, who sported one of many league’s worst run defenses on the time, the Payments known as passes on 63% of their snaps. That wasn’t a perform of the sport script, both — that they had a move fee over expectation of three.6%, per Subsequent Gen Stats. In opposition to the Dolphins in Week 10, the Payments have been 71% move, 29% run — an enormous skew. Once more, adjusting for recreation script, the Payments had a giant move fee over expectation of plus-5.5%.
The Payments’ earlier single-game excessive for run fee over expectation was plus-4.6%. In opposition to the Steelers, it was plus-20.4%. You’d assume such an strategy is protecting Allen, the group’s Lamborghini, parked within the storage. I feel it is the Payments lastly recognizing that they’ve two Lamborghinis.
Over the previous two seasons, the Payments’ operating recreation has proven indicators of Eagles- or Ravens-esque dominance due to a gifted offensive line led by a fantastic OL coach in Aaron Kromer, in addition to a remarkably underrated again in Prepare dinner. Prepare dinner would not have the true third gear that the Lions’ Jahmyr Gibbs does, and he accordingly hits fewer dwelling runs. He would not have the body that the Colts’ Jonathan Taylor does, and he accordingly breaks fewer tackles. However whereas Prepare dinner’s bodily traits are extra nice than elite, his imaginative and prescient and really feel are actually prime tier.
Prepare dinner has 231 carries and has been stuffed for no achieve or a loss solely 26 instances. Solely 5 backs within the NGS period have had 200-plus carries and a decrease stuff fee than Prepare dinner; one of many 5 is his personal 2023 season.
When the Payments decide to a run-first strategy on offense, they roll their opponents. Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt spoke about this after the sport, particularly Buffalo’s use of a run idea known as Duo. He mentioned, “I’ve by no means seen a group run the identical play as a lot as they ran it at the moment and have as a lot success as that they had. I am out of phrases for it.”
This brings us again to Allen and the passing recreation. If the operating recreation is bulldozing that successfully, should not play-action passes lead to deep pictures? Single-high coverages, loaded packing containers, biting linebackers, and so forth.?
Ideally, sure. However deep passing is far more a large receiver stat than a quarterbacking stat. Take deep accuracy: When the ball is within the air for an prolonged time frame, a receiver’s potential to shortly monitor and alter to the throw is the distinction between a ball that appears correct and one that appears inaccurate. Quicker receivers are good for uncovering on a runway however unhealthy at catching via contact from incoming safeties; larger receivers are nice at boxing out cornerbacks on the catch level however require chemistry and belief. Some throws in shallower areas of the sector nonetheless require a few of these traits, in fact, however some are simply level and shoot. This isn’t the case additional downfield. Each throw is within the air lengthy sufficient that its accuracy is dramatically affected by the receiver monitoring it.
Watch Allen’s dropbacks on Sunday, and you will see open receivers additional downfield. This is Brandin Cooks uncovering within the intermediate center in a giant void between zones.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) December 2, 2025
This is Tyrell Shavers with a step on a deep nook route on a play-action boot.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) December 2, 2025
However Allen has tried one move to Cooks and 17 passes to Shavers (a few which have been deep). He isn’t going to start out holding the soccer longer than he must (particularly after being sacked eight instances in opposition to the Texans) to push the ball downfield in a recreation that his protection and run recreation have been controlling. That is mature quarterbacking — one thing he was not displaying earlier this season, when irritating first halves spiraled into urgent within the passing recreation (Atlanta, Miami, Houston).
Keep in mind when Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense misplaced the deep ball in 2023? All of us blamed two-high shells for ruining the game. But it surely wasn’t a change in Mahomes’ capability or a schematic revolution. It was a mirrored image of the Chiefs’ receiving room. Groups with unhealthy receivers cannot maintain throwing deep in opposition to shell protection as a result of these are the throws on which receivers should be spectacular and carry extra of the burden for making them correct. The identical factor is going on in Buffalo.
After all, the Payments cannot throw within the towel on the downfield passing recreation fully — they usually will not. However not each group is supplied to win video games wherein they can not rip off chunk positive aspects via the air, and Buffalo is lucky to be a kind of treasured few that may. It’s a win for normal supervisor Brandon Beane, who constructed this offensive line and operating backs room with few missteps. It’s a win for Brady, who leans closely on his faculty background to discover a ton of manufacturing on swings and screens. It’s a win for Kromer, because the Payments’ offensive line is among the best-coached items in soccer. It’s a win for the Payments’ tight ends and receivers, all of whom are high-effort blockers with buy-in on operating downs. And it’s a win for Allen, who stepped apart and let the operating again room attempt on the superhero cape on this one.
The Payments can win playoff video games like this. Not 1.6 yards downfield, precisely, however 6 or 7. However they definitely haven’t got the extensive receiver expertise to win video games 11 or 12 yards downfield. That is a 2026 offseason downside. For 2025, that is the trail up the mountain for the Buffalo offense.
From y’all
The very best a part of penning this column is listening to from all of you. Hit me on X (@BenjaminSolak) or by e mail (benjamin.solak@espn.com) anytime — however particularly on Monday every week — to ask a query and probably get it answered right here.
From Dave: Will the Vikings hearth Kwesi this low season? Ideas on the supposed quarterback whispering coach?
I am not going to reply the primary half of the query. That is one for Jeremy Fowler or Dan Graziano. I am not tremendous impressed with Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s physique of labor, however I are usually very judgey towards normal managers.
To the second half: I discover the truth that the Vikings’ fan base is popping on Kevin O’Connell very foolish. O’Connell definitely talked a giant recreation this offseason and certain needs he stored a extra cautious tongue. “Organizations fail younger quarterbacks earlier than younger quarterbacks fail organizations” is each a bar and undoubtedly true. However that is in all probability a soundbite not value dropping into the ether to get thrown again in your face.
With that mentioned, it’s painfully obvious to anybody watching the Vikings and J.J. McCarthy that the group did not fail him. McCarthy would not have it. Organizations would possibly fail younger quarterbacks first, however that does not imply they all the time fail younger quarterbacks. Generally they provide them the instruments — a fantastic playcaller, wonderful move catchers, a supportive operating recreation, an explosive protection — and the quarterback fails anyway. It is nonetheless the NFL draft. Generally you draft a man who would not have a excessive ceiling. You’ll be able to coach round him — the Vikings beat the Bears with this man! The Lions, too! — however you possibly can’t change his stripes.
Ball up prime within the 2026 and 2027 NFL draft. Welcome to NFL purgatory.
From Chris: How fearful are you about Darnold? I assumed he was okay in opposition to MIN (OL was terrible many of the recreation), however he was buzzing till the Rams recreation and now it looks like groups are determining find out how to disrupt his timing with unique blitzes and protection disguises.
I am unchanged on Sam Darnold. I beloved how he performed to start out the season, however I do not assume anybody thought he was a very modified man from his failures in Minnesota (and struggles earlier than). It is laborious to calibrate to this when a group has a brand new quarterback, nevertheless it’s essential to recollect: each quarterback appears worse in opposition to good defenses. That is what makes good defenses good.
Darnold has been shaky in opposition to stress recently. He possible will probably be for the remainder of the season. However play underneath stress is notoriously not sticky, and the Seahawks’ passing recreation is among the league’s most harmful when the QB is unpressured. The Seahawks nonetheless have a Tremendous Bowl-caliber offense. They’re only a group with a flaw, like virtually all Tremendous Bowl groups — champions included — earlier than them.
From Andy: Everyone appeared to know the Rams have been good till you set an aged QB out in a chilly rain. We may even see that Stafford once more developing Dec. 18.
The Rams had an offensive success fee of 58% — the Twelfth-best single-game efficiency of any recreation this season. In addition they had a 50% dropback success fee and a whopping 70% success fee on the bottom. They did not see a fourth down in the whole first half — no punts, no discipline purpose makes an attempt, no fourth-down tries, nothing.
Three turnovers will spoil anybody’s efficient offensive day, however this recreation was not an alarm bell. Not by a protracted shot.
0:57
Why Area Yates continues to be assured in Matthew Stafford for Week 14
Area Yates breaks down Matthew Stafford’s fantasy Week 13 efficiency and outlook in opposition to the Cardinals in Week 14.
From BPA: Ben are the Bears good?
Yep. And so is Caleb. Which you heard right here first.
Subsequent Ben Stats
NFL Subsequent Gen Stats are distinctive and insightful nuggets of information which might be gleaned from monitoring chips and big databases. Subsequent Ben Stats are often numbers I made up. Each are under.
plus-25.6%: That is the Panthers run fee over expectation of their win over the Rams on Sunday. It is the second-highest quantity for any offense in any recreation this season.
The best? The Jets in opposition to the Browns, which hardly counts.
I’m in awe of the dedication from Dave Canales and his teaching workers to controlling recreation state via the operating recreation. The rain was dropping in sheets throughout the second half, however I do not assume the precipitation tells the entire story. The Panthers did not name a single move on first-and-10 within the second half. 11 handoffs, one RPO throw, and a kneel. They weren’t essentially shredding on the bottom, both — these 11 first-down runs gathered solely 3.7 yards per carry.
However the runs stored Bryce Younger and the Panthers’ offensive line out of clear pass-rush conditions, the place the Rams have an unlimited benefit (over them and most different groups). Younger was pressured on solely 4 dropbacks — 4! Younger went 0-for-1 on these dropbacks, taking two sacks and scrambling as soon as. However by tiring out these defensive linemen with a heavy, downhill operating assault that sustains drives and by limiting third-and-longs by grinding away 3.7 yards at a time, these stress alternatives aren’t as frequent or as harmful.
1:26
Eisen: NFC South is now a division that could possibly be received by Panthers
Wealthy Eisen offers his ideas on the present state of the Panthers and previews their upcoming schedule.
The operating clock additionally shortens the sport, which the Panthers have been in due to a fairly lucky first half — they intercepted a ball ultimately zone after a deflection off Derrick Brown’s helmet and acquired one other decide off sometimes mistake-free Stafford that they housed for a landing.
On this approach, the sport adopted an identical script to the Panthers’ monumental Week 9 upset win over the Packers. Inexperienced Bay’s execution errors stored the sport shut within the second half, and the Panthers responded by shortening the sport and affording the opposing offense fewer drives to proper the scales.
After all, it’s essential to execute in your key offensive moments to make an strategy like this work. Which brings us to our second stat:
14.45: That is Younger’s complete EPA generated on third and fourth down Sunday. It is essentially the most passing EPA generated on late downs in a recreation for any quarterback this season.
I am going to say one factor for Younger; he is clutch. Younger had three 30-plus-yard landing throws on third and fourth down on this recreation. He is the primary quarterback with a minimum of three 30-plus-yard touchdowns on late downs in a recreation since Daunte Culpepper did it in opposition to the Lions in 2004.
The third-down landing wasn’t that thrilling — a swing display screen to Chuba Hubbard that caught the Rams in a foul blitz for a walk-in, untouched rating.
The 2 fourth-down touchdowns? Downfield throws in opposition to man protection, each dropped properly into buckets. In video games wherein he drops again usually and will get hit a ton, Younger can change into extremely erratic within the pocket and liable to errors, particularly when throwing over the center. However on recreation plans like these, wherein opposing defenses load the field to cease the run or ship further our bodies on the blitz, Younger can take his pictures. He throws with nice contact down the sector.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) December 2, 2025
Very like in opposition to the Packers, we are able to pretty say the Panthers do not win this recreation most of the time. Scoring three offensive touchdowns from 30-plus yards out will not be a sustainable path to prolific offense. Getting three turnovers off Stafford is a very uncommon incidence. However Canales and his workers perceive find out how to take video games wherein the Panthers are clearly outclassed — they have been 10.5-point underdogs at dwelling — and deform them into kinds the Panthers can win.
That is having an identification. Your entire group — playcallers to gamers to recreation managers — rows the boat in the identical course. There may be shared perception in a single cohesive concept of profitable soccer.
Many groups haven’t got that, and most of these groups aren’t within the playoff race. The Panthers have it, and they’re.
plus-0.14: That is Patrick Mahomes’ EPA per dropback on prolonged dropbacks this season. These are dropbacks of longer than 4 seconds.
This is a graph. It is the entire quarterbacks on prolonged dropbacks this season.
Mahomes is having top-of-the-line seasons on prolonged dropbacks we have seen in fairly a while pic.twitter.com/sCDzMub0c5
— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) December 1, 2025
This is one other graph. It is each quarterback season over the previous 5 years on prolonged dropbacks.
This is the final 5 seasons. Lmao. pic.twitter.com/c2vMHottIe
— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) December 1, 2025
We have not seen a quarterback have a season like this on lengthy, improvised dropbacks since early Mahomes, early Lamar Jackson, and early Josh Allen — these seasons wherein no one had seen that sort of athleticism and improvisation. Defenses acquired higher on the scramble drill and discovered to respect Mahomes et al., later and later within the down. However this season, the magic is again.
Not the one-score magic, in fact, The Chiefs are 6-6 and would possibly miss the playoffs. However no one has extra prolonged dropbacks than Mahomes this season, and no one is producing a optimistic play on such dropbacks save for Mahomes. He’s as he has all the time been: certainly one of one.
2,934 days: That is how lengthy of a niche there was between quarterbacks throwing four-plus interceptions of their debut begin, as Max Brosmer did for the Vikings on Sunday.
That quarterback in Week 11 of 2017 was Nathan Peterman, who went 6-of-14 for 66 yards and 5 interceptions in his debut for the Payments.
There are three non-Tremendous Bowl video games for which I can bear in mind precisely the place I used to be after I watched the sport. The Odell Beckham Jr. catch recreation (I used to be there in individual). The Payments-Chiefs 13-second recreation (at my in-laws, watching on my cellphone and attempting to not scream). And the Peterman begin. I used to be at my buddy’s home along with his total household. They’re all lifelong, diehard, obsessive Payments followers. It was one of many biggest experiences of my life.
