Who’s in peril of NASCAR Cup playoff elimination at Bristol?

The Spherical of 16 will come to an finish after 500 high-intensity laps of racing at Bristol Motor Speedway. Two drivers are locked in, a number of others can breathe simple, however there’s one other group who will discover sleep tough within the coming days.

Nobody needs to be the primary to fall within the playoffs, however we have seen everybody from rookies to Cup champions be eradicated after Bristol up to now. Wanting on the up to date standings after Gateway, who’s secure and who’s actual peril this 12 months?

LOCKED IN — Briscoe and Hamlin

The Joe Gibbs Racing duo of Chase Briscoe and Denny Hamlin have each punched their tickets for the Spherical of 12 after victories at Darlington and Gateway. They don’t have anything to concern at Bristol, and can carry some additional bonus factors with them into the spherical of 12. This may permit Hamlin to give attention to that sixtieth win he is been looking with out worrying about his playoff place.

One foot within the door — Larson and Wallace

Bubba Wallace, 23XI Racing Toyota

Picture by: Sean Gardner / Getty Pictures

Each Kyle Larson (+60) and Bubba Wallace (+50) are more likely to clinch a spot within the Spherical of 12 earlier than the top of Stage 2 at Bristol. The one factor that’s presently stopping Larson from being locked in is the truth that a brand new winner would put him 49 factors above the cutline, which he may mathematically (however not realistically) hand over at Bristol.

Feeling comparatively secure — Blaney, Byron, Reddick, Bell, Elliott

Ryan Blaney, Workforce Penske Ford

Picture by: Sean Gardner / Getty Pictures

Whereas these drivers are anyplace from +42 for Ryan Blaney to +28 for Chase Elliott, they need to all really feel fairly good about their state of affairs. Once more, a brand new winner would deliver any of them 11 factors nearer to the bubble, nevertheless it’s nonetheless a good place for all of them. Together with their factors cushion, additionally they have a number of drivers between themselves and the cutline, which is essential. These are all very succesful groups/drivers, so there isn’t any motive to count on them to surrender that many factors with out being hit with some catastrophic misfortune.

No room for error — Logano and Chastain

Ross Chastain, Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet

Picture by: Sean Gardner / Getty Pictures

Joey Logano and Ross Chastain completed 1-2 within the championship again in 2022, in order that they know easy methods to make it by these rounds. Nevertheless, at +21 for Logano in tenth and +19 for Chastain in eleventh, they cannot have any errors at Bristol. Chastain has by no means been eradicated within the first spherical earlier than, however Logano has. He was +12 in 2023, however that double-digit margin evaporated after he bought swept up in another person’s wreck. That is how briskly issues can go flawed on the Bristol half-mile. And may there be a brand new winner, then both of those drivers may abruptly be on the bubble and face a really uncomfortable state of affairs. 

On the recent seat — Cindric

Austin Cindric, Workforce Penske Ford

Picture by: Sean Gardner / Getty Pictures

Nobody needs to be Austin Cindric at Bristol. He’s the driving force holding the twelfth and ultimate switch spot, with simply 11 factors between himself and Austin Dillon. The excellent news is that he has a number of factors to play with due to that 11-point buffer, nevertheless it’s not lots. And if Dillon or any of the 4 drivers under the cutline win, then it’s recreation over for Cindric if he does not get off the recent seat. The closest driver above him is Chastain, eight factors away. He’s going to should race for stage factors, and primarily mirror no matter Dillon does to make sure that he cannot acquire any floor. It is not a enjoyable solution to race, however it will be crucial. 

Chasing factors — Dillon, SVG

Shane van Gisbergen, Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet

Picture by: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Pictures

As Cindric tries to defend himself, the drivers inside placing distance on factors are the aforementioned driver of the No. 3 (Dillon), but additionally Shane van Gisbergen. Dillon is at -11 whereas SVG is -15, however in fact, it will be far harder for SVG to bridge that hole. The New Zealander continues to be studying ovals and has zero stage factors at oval tracks this 12 months. His state of affairs goes to be extra about maximizing the ultimate ending place and hoping hassle befalls these forward of him. Dillon may realistically level his method in, however stage factors might be important in that effort. If each he and Cindric fail to attain any stage factors, then he’ll should beat him by no less than 12 positions on observe on the checkered flag, which turns into much more tough.

Win or nothing — Bowman and Berry

Josh Berry harm, Wooden Brothers Ford

Picture by: David Allio

Simply win. Whereas they may mathematically attain the cutline, it is not a practical aim. Alex Bowman is 35 factors under, whereas Berry is 45 factors within the gap. If both of those drivers can win at Bristol, then they’ll reside to combat one other day, however racing for factors alone is not going to chop it at this level. Whereas issues look bleak, there’s motive to hope. Bowman nonetheless drives for Hendrick Motorsports, and the total would possibly of their extesnsive assets might be behind him this weekend. Berry can also be a talented quick observe racer, however the Wooden Brothers Racing crew simply have not had a lot tempo this 12 months past a shock win at Las Vegas.