In the event you’re certain about something within the NFL, simply wait a number of weeks. Heck, if you happen to have been certain about something from Week 7’s Giants-Broncos sport, ready a number of minutes appeared to work simply as properly.
After six months of ready for the NFL to return over the offseason, what we see within the first few weeks of motion feels stickier and extra significant than anything, and we type opinions shortly.
After all, we must always know that what occurs in September does not at all times imply very a lot by the point we get to the postseason. Patrick Mahomes wanting like a celebrity within the first few weeks of the 2018 season? Vital. The Eagles hitting their bye at 2-2 a yr in the past after dropping to the Kirk Cousins-led Falcons and getting blown out by the Bucs? Nope. Philly casually went 16-1 the remainder of the way in which, successful by a mean of practically two touchdowns per contest.
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Everybody has their opinions and emotions about what we noticed over the primary month of the 2025 season. What number of of these ideas truly ring true as we hit the center of October? Some issues that appeared apparent or important have pale into the September void, whereas different opinions solely really feel like they’ve solidified.
Right now, let’s run by means of 4 of these September ideas and see how Week 7 impacted what we knew — or thought we knew — about a few of the NFL’s most attention-grabbing groups.
Soar to a September take:
The Chiefs’ offense was damaged
The Jaguars’ protection may assist the offense
The Colts’ offense would regress
The Payments would have a transparent path within the AFC
What we mentioned in September: “This offense is damaged.”
Effectively, it was. The Chiefs regarded like a multitude by means of their 0-2 begin, and whereas they obtained their season again on monitor with a 22-9 victory over the Giants in Week 3, the offense nonetheless felt nearly fully dependent upon Mahomes scrambles and out-of-structure magic. We knew issues have been going to be no less than somewhat higher as soon as Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice returned to the fold, however the Chiefs regarded like they have been going to wrestle to reside as much as even the 2023 and 2024 editions of their offense, not to mention the halcyon days when Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill have been at their peaks.
Over the previous 4 weeks? The Chiefs are fourth in EPA per play, a determine which rises to first after we take away rubbish time (these performs during which one staff’s probabilities of successful are beneath 10%) from the equation. They’re second in factors scored per drive. And if we once more take away rubbish time drives, the Chiefs have scored touchdowns on 56% of their possessions for the reason that begin of Week 4. The league common is 26%.
With Rice returning to the lineup for the primary time in over a yr Sunday after a knee harm and six-game suspension, the Chiefs lastly obtained to area the first-string offense that they had been ready to unveil for the reason that begin of 2024. Rice, Worthy and Hollywood Brown have been within the lineup collectively for the primary time. Outdoors of rookie left sort out Josh Simmons, who’s away from the staff coping with a private matter, the Chiefs had everybody on their offensive depth chart out there in opposition to the Raiders.
The outcomes have been dramatic. Even whereas sitting Mahomes for your entire fourth quarter, the Chiefs scored 31 factors and racked up 30 first downs. The Raiders ran solely 30 performs, the second fewest by any staff in a sport for the reason that 1970 merger. The Chiefs averaged 0.38 EPA per play with Mahomes on the sphere; that is the perfect their offense has carried out with Mahomes on the sphere in a regular-season sport since Week 3 of the 2023 season. And this was the ninth-most-productive regular-season efficiency of the Mahomes period by that metric.
All of the sudden, the Chiefs’ offense is prospering. And whereas it is simple to chalk that as much as the return of Rice or a hapless opponent (particularly after the Raiders’ protection misplaced Maxx Crosby to an harm), this actually began again in Week 4, after they beat the Ravens 37-20. The next week in opposition to the Jaguars, Mahomes threw a pick-six on the Jacksonville purpose line, which swung that sport towards the Jags (whom we’ll get to in a bit), however even in that loss, the Chiefs scored 28 factors and had six drives of fifty yards or extra in opposition to an excellent protection. Then, they dropped 30 factors on seven significant drives in opposition to the Lions, punting as soon as all sport.
What has modified? Lower than you may assume. The designed run sport has been about as environment friendly because it was, if you happen to account for rubbish time. The Chiefs have not modified how usually they throw in impartial sport scripts (so much, each earlier than and after the Giants sport). They’ve gotten higher after the catch, although not considerably so; their uncooked yards after the catch are up fairly a bit, however in NFL Subsequent Gen Stats’ yards after catch over expectation, the Chiefs have been twenty eighth by means of three weeks and will not land a lot larger over the following 4 video games.
The 2 most notable variations, no less than to start out, come by means of the passing sport and the work of the receivers. For one, the Chiefs’ move catchers are doing a greater job of bringing in Mahomes’ passes. They’d a minus-6.7% catch fee over expectation by means of three video games, the fourth-worst mark within the NFL. The one groups working a decrease fee over that span have been the Titans, who simply fired their coach, and the Jaguars, who’re nonetheless a multitude.
Since Week 4, that has jumped to 0.8%, which is correct across the center of the pack. The Chiefs aren’t snatching balls out of skinny air, however their receivers are holding their very own and never letting their star quarterback down.
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Jeff Saturday: Payments’ loss to Falcons a nasty signal
Jeff Saturday explains his considerations concerning the Payments after their loss to the Falcons.
The larger issue, although, is what has been lacking across the Chiefs’ receivers: defenders. By means of three video games, simply over 46% of Chiefs passes have been thrown to open receivers. That determine was good for twenty second within the league. After we take into account that the Chiefs have been enjoying with out their prime two wideouts and had Mahomes making an attempt to suit throws to guys like Brown and Tyquan Thornton in tight quarters, the underwhelming catch fee may not be an excessive amount of of a shock.
Over the previous 4 video games? That determine has risen to 62.8%, the perfect mark within the NFL.
The early-season difficulties in getting receivers open appear like a historic outlier. Between 2018 and 2024, the Chiefs ranked no decrease than fourth within the league in open goal fee in any given season. Given what number of receivers have come by means of Andy Reid’s offense in that span, and the way the Chiefs have advanced stylistically to account for groups taking away massive performs excessive, it is arduous to not give a good portion of the credit score for these enhancements to Mahomes. He has an incredible skill to establish pure areas with open pockets in coverages after which create explosives out of construction.
With receivers as open because the Chiefs have been over the previous 4 weeks, Kansas Metropolis is working an astronomical anticipated completion fee. Per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats’ mannequin, a mean group of receivers could be anticipated to show 73.6% of Mahomes’ makes an attempt into completions over the previous month, additionally tops within the league. Offenses can run a excessive anticipated catch fee by throwing the ball brief, because the Raiders are doing over that point span, with 5.1 air yards per try; however the Chiefs are averaging a decent 6.7 per try.
And now, after the returns of Rice and Worthy, the Chiefs do not have a mean set of receivers. For the primary time in years, Reid can actually stretch the sphere and create inconceivable binds for opposing defenses. Rice obtained a 2-yard rating on a faucet move, however the different touchdowns on Sunday have been merely mismatches. Rice was remoted in opposition to oft-picked-on nook Kyu Blu Kelly for a back-shoulder TD within the second quarter. Later within the sport, when the Raiders blitzed Mahomes and performed Cowl 0, the legendary blitz-defeating quarterback had no bother discovering Brown within the slot for a rating. These are simply straightforward completions with out a lot danger for Mahomes.
The tight ends additionally obtained within the combine Sunday. A blown protection on a deep crosser led to a 44-yard catch-and-run for Kelce, whereas Noah Grey picked up 28 yards on a faux screen-and-wheel up the sideline. The Chiefs have struggled out of 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TEs, 2 WRs) this season, however that they had a 61% success fee with two or extra tight ends in opposition to the Raiders, their greatest mark of the season.
And the move safety issues that plagued Mahomes in 2024 have not been as current this season. Over the previous month, Mahomes has handled fast pressures on simply 6% of his dropbacks, comfortably the bottom fee within the league (the common is about 15%). He is doing that whereas holding the ball at a fee properly above league common, so it is not merely a product of getting the ball out quick.
With Mahomes taking sacks on simply 3% of his dropbacks over the previous month and turning the ball over simply as soon as (on that aforementioned pick-six within the Jaguars sport), the Chiefs are emulating the Payments and changing into a optimistic play manufacturing unit. Final season, just below 47% of the Chiefs’ performs on first and second down have been profitable by EPA. That was ninth within the NFL.
Over the previous 4 weeks, the Chiefs are second in success fee on early downs, trailing solely the Payments. Final yr’s staff wanted to thrive on third right down to survive, and with few explosive performs and an enormous blinking gentle of an issue at left sort out, too many Chiefs drives ended in need of the tip zone as a result of they could not rely on Mahomes to make it by means of 4 or 5 third downs with out having the play blown up from his blind aspect. Now, with each improved offensive line play and extra success on first and second down, third-and-long hasn’t been as urgent of a difficulty. The Chiefs confronted third down with greater than 4 yards to go simply 3 times whereas Mahomes was within the sport Sunday.
Will all of this stick? Perhaps not fairly as considerably because it has over the previous 4 video games. The Chiefs have scored touchdowns on 12 of 14 goal-to-go conditions over that point, after going 1-for-4 over the primary three weeks of the season. Mahomes has gotten away with a dropped interception or two, together with a choose that ought to have been made by the Raiders within the second quarter on a drive that ended with Rice’s second landing of the sport.
With Rice and Worthy within the combine and Mahomes enjoying spectacular soccer, although, this appears and looks like the identical Chiefs offense that has terrified the league as soon as once more.
What we mentioned in September: “The protection can maintain up a sloppy offense.”
For all of the optimism and explosive performs popping out of Jacksonville’s 4-1 begin to the season, it was fairly clear to anybody paying shut consideration that Trevor Lawrence and the offense weren’t holding up their finish of the cut price. That offense was producing the occasional massive play, however the operation merely wasn’t residing as much as real looking expectations.
Even by means of that 4-1 begin, the Jags led the league in procedural penalties, the type of unforced errors which have little to do with what occurs after the snap. They have been affected by unlawful shifts and false begins. The offense took delay of sport penalties, even in vital spots or from dead-ball moments. Lawrence threw an unlawful ahead move after crossing the road of scrimmage in Week 1 in opposition to the Panthers, then did it once more in Week 5 in opposition to the Chiefs.
On prime of that, the Jags have been sloppy with the soccer. Lawrence misplaced a fumble making an attempt to leap over the pile for a fourth-and-short landing in opposition to the Chiefs, solely to have the ball punched out of his palms. Brian Thomas Jr. struggled with drops, which has led to picks for Lawrence; the QB appeared to throw one brutal interception per sport, which often got here within the second half.
The protection lined up these issues by forcing gobs of takeaways. Turnover regression towards the imply was one of many largest causes I included the Jags as certainly one of my groups more than likely to enhance in 2025, however no person noticed Jacksonville forcing 15 takeaways by means of its first 5 video games. A kind of takeaways grew to become a landing, as Devin Lloyd now-famously took Mahomes’ solely turnover of the previous month 99 yards the opposite approach, dramatically flipping that sport again in Jacksonville’s favor.
The opposite 14 turnovers helped create shorter fields for the Jags. By means of these first 5 video games, the Jaguars had 14 drives begin on their very own 40-yard line or nearer to the opposition finish zone. These drives produced 5 touchdowns, 4 area targets and three failures by way of a missed area purpose or fourth-down stuff. (The opposite two led to kneel-downs to seal up victories.) The Lions and Colts have been the one groups to start out extra usually in what’s typically thought of to be optimistic area place.
However over these previous two losses? The Jaguars have had one brief area, which got here in opposition to the Rams on Sunday in London. It shortly evaporated after an unlawful man downfield penalty and a 13-yard sack on a free rush during which Lawrence did not have a scorching reply and tried to scramble his approach out of stress. As an alternative, the Jags have been knocked out of area purpose vary and needed to punt down 21-0.
Not a lot has modified on the lengthy drives. The Jaguars have been twenty fourth in factors per possession on drives beginning inside their very own 40-yard line through the 4-1 begin, they usually’re twenty seventh by that very same metric on those self same possessions over the previous two weeks. The protection hasn’t been in a position to pressure any turnovers over that span, although, and that has put the entire stress on the Jaguars’ offense to maintain lengthy, profitable drives.
That is the place the procedural penalties proceed to chunk them. The Jags have added 10 extra procedural penalties on offense to their ledger over the previous two video games, tying them for the league lead. That is with out contemplating penalties like offensive holding and unlawful blocks above the waist, the type of calls environment friendly offenses ideally keep away from as a lot as doable.
Probably the most pointless of these penalties got here in opposition to the Seahawks in Week 6. As Thomas wrestled a 50-50 ball away from Seahawks cornerback Josh Jobe for a landing within the third quarter, a flag hit the opposite aspect of the sphere, with rookie hybrid participant Travis Hunter getting flagged for being offside. The penalty did not matter a ton within the massive image, for the reason that Jaguars continued the drive and finally scored a landing anyway, however different much less conspicuous calls do make a distinction. Drops, an issue plaguing the Jags seemingly since Lawrence arrived on the town, proceed to be a priority. Thomas got here beneath scrutiny earlier within the season for shrinking in tight quarters and failing to make some robust catches. I am undecided these complaints have been utterly warranted, however I did assume that story was behind us now. As an alternative, that is nonetheless a difficulty. Thomas had three doubtlessly catchable balls fall to the bottom Sunday, together with a dig the place the move was knocked out of his palms by an enormous hit from Kamren Kinchens and an out that was practically introduced in by a leaping Thomas. And final week, Thomas did not do a adequate job of bringing in a dig thrown at his helmet, producing a three-and-out in an eight-point sport within the fourth quarter. The Jags have the second-worst catch fee over expectation of any offense within the NFL this season, forward of solely the Bears, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. And whereas it is simple to select on Thomas given his stardom, everyone seems to be guilty. Tim Patrick had a nasty drop in opposition to the Chiefs that ought to have produced a choose, just for three totally different Kansas Metropolis defenders to exaggeratedly whiff on catching the ball. Dyami Brown dropped a would-be landing move that hit him within the palms in opposition to the Bengals. When groups commit too many penalties and do not have brief fields, they find yourself inevitably needing to transform third-and-long — usually greater than as soon as on a drive — to attain factors. The Jags confronted third-and-10 or extra eight occasions Sunday, with Lawrence changing a kind of makes an attempt. The Jags failed on third-and-short, too; they got here up brief on a third-and-2 when a Thomas flat route picked up only one yard, on a third-and-3 Thomas drop and on a third-and-2 throw from an empty set that Lawrence sailed whereas making an attempt to hit backup tight finish Johnny Mundt. Liam Coen nonetheless appears to be discovering the proper locations to suit his gamers on offense. Mundt might be not the man you need break up out catching hitches on third down. I am fairly certain I noticed a Hunter Lengthy alternative route earlier this season. The Jags began the season with Thomas working loads of in-breaking routes and struggling earlier than modifying his route tree. Hunter’s position has appeared to fluctuate from week to week, although he did have his largest sport as a professional in London, turning 14 targets into eight catches for 101 yards and a rating. And Travis Etienne Jr., who was drafted two teaching regimes in the past for his relationship with Lawrence and talent as a move catcher, has 14 catches for 80 yards. There’s expertise right here, however the Jags make too many errors to reliably and constantly win video games with their offense proper now. The protection has proved its skill to cleared the path, but it surely’s at all times going to be robust for groups to pressure a number of takeaways each week. When the onus has fallen on the offense, the Jags have typically fallen aside this season. Till they clear issues up, that is not going to alter. What we mentioned in September: “They’ve a transparent path to the highest seed within the AFC.” The Payments are on what grew to become a well-timed bye this week, however after a disappointing loss to the Falcons on “Monday Evening Soccer” final week, their sudden downshift is value discussing right here. When Buffalo rolled off a dramatic comeback win over the rival Ravens within the opener, it regarded just like the Payments have been in nice place to ensure the convention bracket would experience by means of Buffalo. The Chiefs would land at 0-2, the Ravens would finally fall all the way in which to 1-5, and the Payments had what seemed to be a really beneficiant schedule. Having to face the Jets, Dolphins, Saints, Patriots and Falcons earlier than the Week 7 bye, it regarded like Buffalo may not have a lot bother beginning 7-0. Throw in a win in opposition to Carolina on additional relaxation in Week 8, and Payments followers may envision a world the place they have been 8-0 earlier than internet hosting the Chiefs in early November. Effectively, schedules could be a humorous factor. The Payments did win their first 4 video games over that span, though the Dolphins put up a struggle in Western New York in Week 3, and the Saints obtained inside two factors through the fourth quarter earlier than Josh Allen finally pulled away. Just a little sloppy, maybe, however the Payments have been stacking wins, and that is what mattered. After which the stack fell over. The Payments could not get into prime gear in opposition to a feisty Patriots staff, and Drake Maye made a few big-time performs on the ultimate drive, which resulted in a 52-yard area purpose by Andy Borregales that handed the Payments their first lack of the season. Every week later, the offense could not get comfy whereas going through a Falcons staff that had been blown out by the Panthers earlier within the season, with the Payments mustering simply two scores in a 24-14 defeat. All of the sudden, 4-0 was 4-2, and the Payments have been out of the highest spot within the AFC. What has gone mistaken for the Payments? I am going to begin with the best doable rationalization: They have been in a position to lean on a system that no person else within the league has managed to match, and that system has come undone, particularly over the previous two video games. If anybody is able to rounding again into that type, it is the Payments, however what they have been doing was principally unprecedented in league historical past. It is the turnovers. The offense merely by no means gave away the soccer. Between their bye week in November final yr and the win over the Dolphins, the Payments performed 12 video games (together with playoffs). Their offense turned the ball over precisely one time. That has by no means occurred earlier than, and it has by no means even been approached. No person else in league historical past has had a stretch of 12 video games with fewer than 4 turnovers on offense, and the staff that pulled that off was final season’s Eagles. We reside in an period the place turnovers are at historic lows, however NFL groups aren’t supposed to have the ability to play three months of soccer and switch the ball over one time. That interception, which got here final yr in opposition to the Patriots, was a third-and-16 deep ball from Allen that was picked off ultimately zone and amounted to an arm punt. The Payments primarily had not handled a significant turnover since their Week 11 sport in opposition to the Chiefs. Over the previous three video games, the Payments have six turnovers. Allen threw an interception in opposition to the Saints when he could not step right into a throw to get as a lot as he needed on a gap shot, permitting Jonas Sanker to make a pleasant play for his first profession INT. And as soon as that occurred, out of the blue, the spell appeared to be damaged. Allen made an terrible determination to pressure a throw into double protection within the purple zone for an additional choose. One other compressed pocket led to an impacted throw and a choose on the finish of the primary half in opposition to the Falcons, whereas one other Allen move was tipped and picked within the last minute to seal the Payments’ 24-14 loss. Past Allen, the Payments fumbled an alternate on a jet sweep and could not fall on the soccer in opposition to Atlanta, whereas a Keon Coleman fumble contained in the 10-yard line gave the Patriots a vital brief area early of their highway win. The Payments had one other ball hit the turf in opposition to the Falcons on a third-and-1 jet sweep to Elijah Moore, and whereas he recovered the fumble, he was stopped behind the road for a loss. A few of that is Allen throwing in unexpectedly damaging sport scripts. And a few of it was their luck being certain to alter; throughout that 12-game streak, the Payments’ offense recovered 11 of their very own fumbles. A few of these are dangerous exchanges which might be likelier to finish up again with the offense than different fumbles within the open area, however the Payments could not rely on repeatedly falling on the ball. With Allen taking sacks at traditionally low charges for many of final season and the early a part of this season, and coordinator Joe Brady being very comfy going for it on fourth down, the Payments have been an much more intense model of the optimistic play machine I referred to earlier with the Chiefs. Over our 12-game span, Allen took sacks on simply 3.1% of his dropbacks, which he greater than made up for along with his skill to increase performs and scramble for important yardage. Along with the six turnovers over the previous three weeks, Allen has taken eight sacks at a 9.2% fee — practically tripling the speed from the prior three months. Once more, sport script issues right here, however there is a a lot totally different system underpinning the Payments’ offense from the one which had led Allen to the MVP nod final season. With Allen avoiding sacks and making so many out-of-structure performs, he was the uncommon quarterback who was higher beneath stress than he was understanding of a clear pocket. Once more that span, Allen’s 87.6 QBR beneath stress was practically 15 factors higher than that of anyone else. Over the previous three video games, with sacks and takeaways changing into a difficulty? Allen’s QBR has dropped to 12.2 beneath stress, twenty fifth amongst quarterbacks. He has gone 8-of-21 for 90 yards with one landing and three picks over that span. In case your offense is not a relentless on-schedule machine that by no means will get off monitor, it’s good to create explosive performs to outlive. Allen’s clearly able to doing that, however the sport scripts and the added yardage wanted for conversions leaned into Buffalo’s lack of playmakers within the passing sport. James Prepare dinner III has been excellent this season, and there have been considerations that the Payments don’t get him the ball usually sufficient, however Brady has already leaned extra closely into the run. The Payments are 18th in neutral-script run fee on early downs, simply narrowly off from seventeenth the yr prior. Even throughout this tough patch, the Payments are second within the NFL in success fee on offense. The Payments’ offense wants extra explosives and fewer takeaways. However the Payments’ protection must go in the other way. If something, the protection has been extra depending on forcing turnovers lately to thrive. Earlier this yr, I wrote about the way it’s troublesome to maintain turnover charges within the prime 5 on protection, simply given how a lot variance can swap takeaway figures. Effectively, listed here are two vital rankings for the Payments. The primary one is how usually they ended opposing drives with takeaways. The second is the place they ranked in factors allowed per possession on drives that did not finish with a fumble or interception. You will discover a sudden drop-off: This was a superb protection between 2021 and 2023. In 2024? The Payments weren’t nice at stopping opposing offenses, however they created extra turnovers than another staff within the league on a per-drive foundation, so the stops they did give you have been disproportionately beneficial. This yr, although, the Payments have solely 5 takeaways in six video games. They’ve but to have a multiturnover sport on protection after producing 10 of them within the 2024 common season, 9 of which yielded Payments victories. They’ve misplaced the turnover battle in consecutive weeks after successful or tying it in each certainly one of their regular-season and postseason video games of final season. Stress hasn’t been an issue for the Payments, as a resurgent yr from Joey Bosa has helped Buffalo maintain the league’s second-best stress fee this season. With out stress? The Payments have been putty. They’re twenty eighth in opponent QBR allowed with none type of stress getting dwelling, simply forward of the Commanders, Cowboys, Titans and Ravens — all of whom are going by means of their very own crises within the secondary. The Payments are going by means of one as properly, even when coach Sean McDermott refuses to acknowledge as a lot. This merely has not been a unit as much as their requirements. A few of that has been injury-related; the Payments have not had first-round choose Maxwell Hairston, who has been out all season to date with a knee harm. And in flip, veteran Tre’Davious White — a cap casualty in Buffalo two years in the past — has allowed a 100.6 passer score, a determine that does not embody the move interference penalty he took ultimately zone in opposition to the Patriots to assist arrange a rating on the finish of the primary half. The safeties have been each bit as disappointing, and there is not the identical harm excuse. Cole Bishop and Taylor Rapp have been Buffalo’s two greatest safeties on paper, they usually’ve been on the sphere all season. They’re simply not in a position to make performs. Rapp could not even get shut sufficient to make sort out makes an attempt at occasions on Derrick Henry within the opener, and Bishop has made each psychological and tackling errors. By means of two seasons, his profession missed sort out fee is almost 12%, an unsustainable quantity for any security. It is one factor to take a troublesome angle and miss a sort out on Bijan Robinson’s 81-yard landing scamper, however Bishop whiffed on a sort out of Stefon Diggs within the fourth quarter of the Patriots sport, turning what ought to have been a 6-yard achieve on a third-and-5 right into a 30-yard achieve and a first-and-goal alternative. The Patriots scored a landing to go up 10 and by no means trailed the remainder of the way in which. There are two methods to go from right here. One is to get again on the previous system — dominate the turnover battle, remove the damaging performs and win by making fewer errors than their opponents. The opposite is to discover a new system. The Payments can determine different methods to win, however with a resurgent Chiefs staff coming to city in two weeks, they should discover or redefine their id and quick. What we mentioned in September: “The Daniel Jones-led offense is a flash within the pan.” Nope. After their 38-point shellacking of the Chargers on Sunday afternoon, I am undecided how one can actually poke many holes in what the Colts are doing on offense. They’re the perfect offense within the league, and it actually is not notably shut. They’re scoring 3.5 factors per possession, and by that metric, the second-placed Chiefs are nearer to thirteenth than they’re to the Colts in first. The Colts additionally lead the league in EPA per play, forward of the Cowboys, Chiefs, Packers and Lions. It would really feel as if that is going to fade, and there are no ensures that the Colts would be the greatest offense in soccer over the remainder of the season, however we have now seen them dominate opposing defenses for 419 snaps in 2025. And whereas seven video games is not even half of a season of knowledge, it is often sufficient to know {that a} staff is not about to out of the blue collapse and fall to the underside half of the league. Going again by means of 2010, the league chief in EPA per play after seven weeks has typically continued to play properly all through the rest of the season. They’ve, on common, been the league’s seventh-best offense from Week 8 onward. No EPA chief has been worse than 14th in EPA per play after Week 7 onward. That staff, the 2012 Giants, completed the common season ninth in EPA per play over your entire yr. They’re the one chief by means of seven weeks since 2010 that did not end the common season within the prime 5. Barring an harm to Jones, which would go away the Colts with rookie Riley Leonard beneath heart, the Colts do not have some type of deadly flaw or underlying metric ready to trace towards their collapse. They’ve recovered three of 4 fumbles on offense, however the sign there’s fumbling solely 4 occasions in seven video games, which is spectacular. They’re third within the league in third down conversion fee and seventh in purple zone landing fee, that are on the excessive aspect however hardly out of whack for an offense that is rolling on early downs and outdoors the purple zone, too. Will the Colts go 17-for-17 in goal-to-go conditions the remainder of the yr? In all probability not, however they do not want to do this to be an excellent offense. A few of the arguments that will have been truthful to carry up concerning the Colts throughout their scorching begin in September do not actually apply now. Let’s run by means of them: They’ve confronted a simple schedule. It was definitely one factor when the Colts dropped 33 factors on a hapless Dolphins protection within the opener. Even then, it was clear that Miami had punted on constructing an NFL-caliber secondary and have been going to be a goal for opposing offenses all season. The Browns, who’ve been an offensive mess all season, scored 24 factors in opposition to the Dolphins on offense yesterday. The Panthers ran for 239 yards on Miami. No person must be launching their nice offensive marketing campaign on beating the Dolphins. Effectively, in Week 2, the Colts scored 29 factors and racked up 473 internet yards on the Broncos, who’ve a terrific protection. Whereas Indy has loved a few of the league’s simpler defenses (Titans, Raiders) round a 20-point, three-turnover efficiency in a loss to the Rams, Sunday was one other prove-it sport in opposition to a Chargers protection that ranked tenth in EPA per play earlier than going through the Colts. Indianapolis had what was arguably its greatest offensive efficiency of the season, scoring 38 factors and topping 400 yards. The Colts began the sport with three landing drives, all of which went 70 yards or extra, together with a 17-play epic within the second quarter. After a punt, they kicked a area purpose and drove downfield for 2 extra touchdowns. After one other punt, the Colts chewed up the ultimate three-and-a-half minutes of clock to seal a two-TD victory. It is one factor to spike a few massive performs or reap the benefits of a number of brief fields, however the Colts have been constantly explosive and in a position to create massive play alternatives all through this sport. Even going through a Chargers staff that has a quarterback and a set of receivers identified for his or her skill to create these massive performs, the Colts have been simply the extra explosive staff of the 2. After Justin Herbert and the L.A. offense struggled to piece collectively an 11-play, 76-yard drive to get inside two scores within the third quarter, the Colts simply hopped on the sphere and moved the ball with ease. Tyler Warren leaked into the flat, shrugged off a sort out from security Derwin James Jr. and turned upfield for 29 yards. Michael Pittman Jr. picked up 11 yards. Alec Pierce went for 14. And with the Colts simply getting into area purpose vary, Jonathan Taylor made up for an earlier run for no achieve on the drive by taking the ball 19 yards to the home. They moved 73 yards on 5 performs, merely overwhelming an excellent Chargers protection alongside the way in which. Jones is not going to maintain making this many massive performs. At his greatest in New York beneath Brian Daboll, Jones had advanced into some extent guard and fast distributor. Daboll dialed up run-pass choices, quick-game stuff and one-read ideas that allowed Jones to both get the ball out shortly or get to scrambling. That offense labored in 2022, at the same time as Jones threw the shortest common move of anyone within the league, but it surely was much less efficient in 2023 and 2024. There are not any such limitations this time round. Jones is averaging 8.4 air yards per throw, the seventh-highest determine for any quarterback within the NFL. He is a comparatively modest twelfth within the league in yards per try on deep passes, however Jones does not must be early-career Mahomes or Philip Rivers when it comes to choosing groups aside downfield to thrive on offense. He simply must be adequate to offer opposing defenses pause, and Jones has greater than met that prerequisite this season. Shane Steichen has helped make life simpler for Jones in working off play-action. Jones is taking a play-fake on 33.5% of his dropbacks this season, comfortably the best fee within the league. (Second, coincidentally, is Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart.) Owing partially to how devastating the Colts’ run sport has been, Jones is averaging 9.5 yards per dropback with play-action this season, the fifth-best fee within the league. On Sunday, Jones was 10-of-13 with play-action for 130 yards and a landing move. There is no disgrace in saying that the Colts playmakers are serving to gasoline a few of these massive performs with what they do after the catch, too. Taylor has been the perfect again in soccer (alongside Bijan Robinson), whereas each certainly one of Indy’s playmakers has leveled up and appears as if they seem to be a tier above the place they have been with Anthony Richardson Sr. at quarterback. I am undecided any offensive participant has been extra enjoyable to observe from a movie perspective this season than Warren, whose position within the offense may as properly be Steichen’s Coach of the Yr submission. No person performs extra significant roles throughout the offense and will get the ball from a wider vary of locations, with Puka Nacua as the one potential competitors for that title. Warren has picked up first downs working the triple choice and working the famed Nacua Sail route out of the backfield by means of the offensive line. He has been a lead blocker and a Wildcat quarterback. And in opposition to the Cardinals, Warren lined up because the wing tight finish after which took the handoff on a counter on third-and-5 for a 6-yard run, establishing his landing catch on the following first-and-goal snap. Jones will take too many sacks. The Broncos and Chargers do not precisely have light move rushes, and Jones has managed to outlive. The identical quarterback who ran an 8.5% sack fee in New York, together with a 15.8% mark in a six-game pattern in 2023, is taking sacks on simply 2.6% of his dropbacks this season. That is the perfect mark within the league, and it may be one of many single largest enhancements any participant has constituted of season-to-season. There was somewhat little bit of magic the place gamers collide, and Jones by some means manages to keep away from the fray and run ahead for a primary down, however he has legitimately been excellent about discovering the road between extending performs with the hopes of making one thing explosive and giving up on a play on the proper time. Jones has held onto the ball for 5 seconds or extra simply 3 times all season. For context, Caleb Williams and Cam Ward are tied for the league lead with 20 such performs. Jones can be much less concerned within the run sport than he has been in previous years. Taking kneel-downs out of the equation, Jones has 22 carries for 86 yards by means of six video games. These numbers aren’t going to look good in comparison with what the 2019 first-round choose was in a position to do at his greatest with the Giants, but it surely’s additionally a safer strategy to reside. Jones took hits on practically 31% of his dropbacks between 2023 and 2024 in New York, a determine topped solely by Justin Fields. That determine is down to simply over 21% this season. Fewer hits imply fewer alternatives to get injured. Accidents might be an issue. No person can predict accidents, but it surely’s truthful to no less than word that Jones has performed only one full season of soccer in his professional profession because the starter with out lacking time. That risk goes to hold over the Colts, particularly on condition that the untested Leonard is one dangerous Jones hit away from being their beginning quarterback. On the similar time, including a veteran with a wholesome résumé is not a assure, both; Kirk Cousins had been wholesome for a lot of the prior decade earlier than tearing an Achilles. And Indianapolis’ O-line has been glorious all through the season. Outdoors of dropping Taylor or one thing, the Colts and Jones must be advantageous. They will not be capable of throw in damaging sport scripts. This may find yourself being true. The issue is that no person is ready to get out to a large enough result in discover out. Jones hasn’t taken a single snap trailing by a couple of rating all season. Once they have fallen behind, Jones and Taylor have carried out a terrific job of getting the Colts instantly again into the sport. And as soon as they’ve gotten forward, Jones and Taylor have usually carried out a superb job of protecting them there. At 6-1, the Colts are out of the blue in first place in your entire AFC, not to mention the South. Jones has been one of many gamers of the yr to date. It is shortly changing into tougher to poke holes in his success with Steichen and Indianapolis. With one other spectacular win over one of many league’s extra imposing defenses, Jones is firmly establishing himself as a part of the quarterback reclamation class of 2025. He may even find yourself being valedictorian.
