Breaking down the battle to make the NASCAR Cup playoffs

Simply two races stay within the common season for the NASCAR Cup Collection, and Tyler Reddick took an enormous step in securing his place within the postseason on factors alone. With Shane van Gisbergen’s fourth win of the 2025 season, Reddick is now in a powerful place points-wise because it prevented anybody new from capturing the checkered flag.

However mathematically talking, there are nonetheless three unclaimed spots within the 16-driver playoff grid because the Cup Collection races into Richmond Raceway, earlier than ending the common season at Daytona Worldwide Speedway.

This is a have a look at the place every part stands after Watkins Glen:

Tyler Reddick +117pts

Reddick misplaced 5 factors to the cut-line at The Glen, however he basically maintained his margin over Alex Bowman, solely shedding two factors to the No. 48. That’s essential as there are 57 factors between them. If he can preserve that hole at Richmond, then he’ll clinch a spot within the playoffs even with a brand new winner. Ought to there be a repeat winner, then he’ll simply clinch a spot. Both means, 23XI Racing has to really feel excellent about their probabilities at this level.

Alex Bowman +60pts

Alex Bowman, Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet

Photograph by: James Gilbert / Getty Photos

Bowman actually would not need to see any shock winners at Richmond. He has a snug margin over the reduce line, however the hole he needs to be nervous about is the one to Chris Buescher and the bubble, which is simply 26 factors. Nobody desires to be sixteenth getting into Daytona, as that driver would be the one eradicated ought to any of the drivers under the cut-line win on the unpredictable superspeedway. If there’s a new winner at Richmond, it is unlikely Bowman will achieve sufficient factors on Buescher to clinch a spot, so the best-case situation for him (moreover profitable himself) is to maintain Buescher at bay and hope for a repeat winner. 

Chris Buescher +34 factors

Chris Buescher, RFK Racing Ford

Photograph by: Icon Sportswire by way of Getty Photos

Watkins Glen was precisely what Buescher wanted, profitable a stage and ending third in a implausible displaying for the No. 17 RFK Racing Ford. He gained eleven factors on the cut-line, the place his teammate sits. It is nonetheless a really uncomfortable seat, being the bubble driver, so his focus needs to be on bridging the hole to Bowman and tossing the No. 48 onto the bubble earlier than Daytona arrives. If he would not transfer from his present spot, then Buescher has to fret about over half of the drivers within the discipline who might win at Daytona and knocking him out.

Ryan Preece, Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing Ford

Photograph by: Sean Gardner / Getty Photos

Preece had a good run at The Glen, but it surely nonetheless wasn’t sufficient. Shedding these eleven factors places him in a extra determined scenario, as the trail to the playoffs on factors alone begins to dim. The RFK Racing driver has by no means gained in his earlier 211 Cup begins, however which may be precisely what he must do over the subsequent two weeks. 

The drivers going through a must-win at Richmond

Austin Dillon, Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet

Photograph by: James Gilbert / Getty Photos

There are 19 drivers with one purpose over the subsequent two weeks, and that is win or nothing. Amongst them is defending Richmond winner Austin Dillon, who sits twenty eighth within the standings. He did not get into the playoffs by way of that final win, because of the stunning lengths he went to in an effort to guarantee he wasn’t crushed (blatantly wrecking each Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin), however nonetheless, the No. 3 was extraordinarily quick throughout that race.

If they create comparable velocity this weekend, it could possibly be an enormous alternative for Dillon, or his teammate Kyle Busch, as each drivers wants a win to make the playoffs. 

One other driver to observe is Daniel Suarez, who led 93 laps at Richmond final yr. Trackhouse additionally earned a double high ten end in that race, and so they have all of the momentum after SVG’s newest triumph. 

Brad Keselowski had nice velocity at the newest quick monitor race at Iowa, and could possibly be a contender once more at Richmond. Nonetheless, a win for Brad means his teammate shall be booted from the playoff bubble.

Entrance Row Motorsports and Spire Motorsports are each three-car groups, however all of their drivers are in a must-win scenario. Except they shock the world this weekend, their solely shot for any of their drivers to make it is going to be within the finale at Daytona.

Different multi-car groups with zero drivers presently within the playoffs embody Kaulig Racing and Legacy Motor Membership, however the largest crew in a must-win scenario needs to be the No. 54 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota. Ty Gibbs remains to be winless after three years within the Cup Collection, and time is operating out for him to affix his teammates within the championship hunt.